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Pepper Stadium continues to be all but a blur as the Panthers switch another home game this time across the Tasman to Christchurch, who will host the New Zealand Warriors for the first time since 2010, in front of an expected sell-out crowd of 18,000 fans at AMI Stadium.
The Panthers come into this game having won – perhaps fortuitously – yet another game that went down to the wire, after a late Peter Wallace field goal enabled Penrith to defeat Canberra, 19-18 in Bathurst a fortnight ago, to continue a season dominated by games that have come down to the final moments.
The kings of the tight finish have now entered the top eight despite their topsy-turvy start to 2016 where since Round 3, it’s been a win-loss cycle for the Mountain Men despite having yet to be involved in a game where the margin is more than eight points.
Regardless of the marathon stretch away from home which has seen Penrith record wins over the Sydney Roosters and Canberra Raiders, with a tight loss over competition front-runners, Cronulla, thrown in for good measure, a win over the Warriors will allow the Panthers to consolidate their position in the top eight with a home game – yes, finally, the first in six weeks – against the Titans to look forward to next Sunday.
While the Panthers have been rewarded with a sell-out, it will be Andrew McFadden’s team who will have the home ground advantage with Warriors fans certain to outnumber Penrith supporters.
Having already played Canterbury ‘away’ in Wellington, this represents the second time in 2016 the Warriors will play an away game without actually leaving New Zealand and come into this clash buoyed by a 26-10 win over St George-Illawarra despite a number of players being stood down prior to the clash, which came after a 42-0 thumping at the hands of Melbourne.
Yet despite this issue and a slow start to 2016 which saw the Warriors 0-3, they have done remarkably well to climb back up to 10th on the ladder, level with Penrith on points but with an inferior differential record.
Should they defeat Penrith – and see Manly lose to Brisbane – the Warriors will enter the top eight.
Team news
Despite the heavy workload of last weekend’s representative round, all seven participants have been named by Panthers coach Anthony Griffin in a side that is probably the strongest available given the long-term injuries suffered by Te Maire Martin (shoulder) and Dean Whare (knee).
Waqa Blake (hip) has been named at centre while former Warrior, Peta Hiku (knee) and James Fisher-Harris (hip), who both withdrew from Kiwi representative duties last weekend have been named.
Another ex- Warrior Suaia Matagi is named on a five-man bench, as Fisher-Harris continues his battle to overcome that hip injury, while 2015 Panthers Holden Cup Player of the Year prop Moses Leota has also traveled with the side as additional cover.
There is some speculation that suggests that the side could well line up similarly to the one that did so against Canberra a fortnight ago as well, particularly with the evolving combination between Bryce Cartwright and Tyrone Peachey down Penrith’s right edge that must be giving Griffin food for thought.
While seven players including Kiwi Test debutant Dallin Watene-Zelezniak backing up for this clash, importantly Penrith’s named spine – Matt Moylan (fullback), Soward (five-eighth), Wallace and Segeyaro are rested and should be fully primed for this game.
For the Warriors, coach Andrew McFadden has recalled two of the suspended six players, Ben Matulino and Bodene Thompson, while Tuimoala Lolohea (knee) and Thomas Leuluai (hamstring) return from injury, at the expense of Jeff Robson, Matthew Allwood (18th man) and Toafofoa Sipley, while Sione Lousi has been ruled out for the season with an ACL injury.
Importantly three of the late reinforcements brought into the starting 13 against the Dragons – hooker Jazz Tevaga, prop James Gavet and lock John Palavi, have been rewarded by retaining their posts for this clash, while regular Issac Luke is again relegated to the bench.
Those well publicised off-field issues and injuries meant the Warriors had only three players play in the representative round last weekend and should be refreshed for this clash accordingly.
The Panthers dominate a number of key statistics especially in relation to offloads as the number one in the NRL, led by Cartwright and Hiku but equally are still the worst team when it comes to being ineffective in defence, missing more tackles per game than any other team.
Should this aspect of Penrith’s game continue against the Warriors, the unpredictable Shaun Johnson will be on hand to take advantage either for himself or will create opportunities for the likes of Lolohea and Solomone Kata, who are dangerous ball-runners.
Sooner or later, those defensive lapses will hurt as that scrambling defence which has enabled Penrith to concede marginally less than 20 points per game will only get you so far in this competition hence it needs to be addressed this week, especially with the goal of shutting down Johnson and his supports.
The key stats
Overall, Penrith enjoys a narrow advantage over the New Zealand Warriors but in recent times it’s been almost all the Panthers, with five wins from the last six games played against the Warriors.
In fixtures played between the two teams in New Zealand, it’s eight wins apiece between these two teams.
The Warriors at AMI Stadium have won two of five games played at the venue but have won the last two games including a last-minute victory over the Sydney Roosters in 2010.
The history: Played 35 – Panthers 19, Warriors 15, Drawn 1.
Last meeting: Panthers defeated Warriors 24-10 (Round 23, 2015).
Panthers last three games: 19-18 versus Raiders, 18-20 versus Sharks, 20-16 versus Roosters
Warriors last three games: 26-10 versus Dragons, 0-42 versus Storm, 24-20 versus Bulldogs
Under this week’s referees, Matt Cecchin and David Munro, both teams enjoy similar records. Importantly though, in 2016 the Warriors have won three games under either official while the Panthers have yet to win any.
In fact under Matt Cecchin Penrith have lost six straight games, stretching back to 2014.
In games between the pair officiated by either referee, Penrith enjoys a slender 1-0 advantage under Munro.
The teams
Penrith Panthers
1. Matt Moylan (c) 2. Josh Mansour 3. Waqa Blake 4. Peta Hiku 5. Dallin Watene Zelezniak 6. Jamie Soward 7. Peter Wallace 8. Sam McKendry 9. James Segeyaro 10. Regan Campbell-Gillard 11. Bryce Cartwright 12. Isaah Yeo 13. Trent Merrin.
Interchange: 14. Tyrone Peachey 15. Jeremy Latimore 16. Leilani Latu 17. James Fisher-Harris 20. Suaia Matagi (one to be omitted).
New Zealand Warriors
1. Tuimoala Lolohea 2. Jonathan Wright 3. Blake Ayshford 4. Solomone Kata 5. David Fusitua 6. Thomas Leuluai 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Jacob Lillyman 9. Jazz Tevaga 10. James Gavet 11. Bodene Thompson 12. Ryan Hoffman 13. John Palavi.
Interchange: 14. Issac Luke 15. Ben Matulino 16. Charlie Gubb 17. Shaun Lane 18. Matthew Allwood (one to be omitted).
Match officials
Referee: Matt Cecchin.
Assistant Referee: Dave Munro.
Sideline Officials: Tim Roby, Anthony Elliott.
Review Official: Steve Chiddy Senior Review Official: Luke Patten
Stew’s view
The Panthers have been in the last five minutes of every game this season but while their position on the table doesn’t necessarily reflect their competitiveness it’s more than what can be said about the ultra-inconsistent Warriors.
Unexpected wins over Canterbury and St George-Illawarra have been tainted by terrible losses to the Melbourne Storm and the Wests Tigers.
But with a relatively refreshed line-up and playing in front of a buoyant Christchurch that is expected to lend its support to the national team despite Penrith’s efforts in bringing rugby league to the city, the Warriors will be primed.
Penrith will have to be at their attacking rather than their defensive best this afternoon as there are points in this Kiwi outfit.
The Panthers have not scored more than four tries at all in 2016 and have not scored more than twenty points since Round 3, and will need to find their attacking groove against a Warriors side that for all their vulnerability in defence, has the potential to dazzle when in possession.
More importantly the Panthers need to stay switched on in the final twenty minutes as last round’s game against Canberra can attest. The Panthers’ defensive frailties were exposed and they were a tad lucky to win the contest given the Raiders’ inability to convert opportunities into points.
Whether the workload of last weekend’s representative round – particularly for the six Panthers that played in Tamworth last Sunday – has a profound impact on their fitness heading into the championship minutes remains to be see.
This clash has all the makings of being a high-scoring affair as the Panthers look to assert themselves in this competition with a reasonably good draw heading into the Origin period.
It may mean Panther fans will need the defibrillator by their sides for another week but in the end despite some anxious moments, I expect the ‘home’ side to prevail and record back-to-back wins for the first time in 2016 with both sides set to score 20 or more points in this clash.
Penrith by 8.
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