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There’s just two weeks left in the Super Rugby season and ten teams are still vying to fit into the eight spots available in finals. Wondering what your side has to do to make the cut? Our Super Rugby cheat sheet has everything you need to know.
Lions
The Lions have nothing to worry about at this stage – thanks to their big win over the Sharks on the weekend, they are guaranteed qualification for the finals as the top team in the Africa 2 conferences.
The only thing to do from here is to keep winning so they can ensure a finish in top spot and therefore a first-week finals match-up with the lowest-ranked of the wildcards. With the Kings and the Jaguares in the final round, that looks an easy task.
Chiefs
The Chiefs lead the New Zealand conference at the moment but it’s far from sewn up – the Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders are all nipping at their heels, with just three points difference between top spot and fourth.
The Chiefs play the Reds in Brisbane this week and should get the win there, but a match-up with the Highlanders it Dunedin in the final round could prove to be a deciding fixture in the final standings.
Stormers
The top team in the Africa 1 conference, the Stormers have a finals spot virtually locked up now thanks to the Bulls’ failure to overcome the Jaguares on Sunday morning.
The only way they could drop out of the lead of the Africa 1 conference would be if they lost both of their remaining matches by more than seven points (unlikely, against the Force and the Kings), and the Bulls were to have bonus-point wins in both their remaining matches (against the Sunwolves and the Cheetahs, not impossible).
Even in that scenario, they would still qualify for finals – albeit as a wild card – if the Sharks lose one or both of their last two games.
Brumbies
The Brumbies have the same number of points overall as the Waratahs and actually have a smaller points difference than their NSW rivals, albeit only by a margin of three, but as it stands they are in the finals as the top Australian team and the Waratahs are out, due to the Brumbies having one extra win.
The Brumbies simply put must keep winning – they’ve got the Blues this week and the Force the week after. Two wins from those two matches would just about lock up a finals spot, but lose either of them and they’ll be putting the ball in the Waratahs’ court.
Crusaders
Part of the first-to-fourth logjam in the New Zealand conference, the Crusaders have matches against the Rebels and the Hurricanes in the final two weeks of the season.
If they beat the Rebels they will have finals all but guaranteed, and if they can beat the Hurricanes as well then they’ll be in with a good chance to take the top New Zealand spot.
Hurricanes
The Canes have a pair of crucial matches in the remaining two weeks of the season, both of them coming against teams in the finals race – the Waratahs and the Crusaders.
The Waratahs match in particular is crucial. If they can get a win over them, they’ll pretty much sew up a guaranteed finals berth – not only will it give them a boost, but it will make it very difficult for the Waratahs to push any of the other Australia/New Zealand teams out.
The flip side is that if they lose, it will leave them less than a game ahead of the Waratahs and in desperate need of a final-round win over the Crusaders.
Highlanders
Although the Highlanders are the lowest of the four New Zealand teams pushing for finals, they’ve an advantage in that they’re fixtured for what should be a win against the Jaguares this week. Take that match and last year’s champs should have a finals spot locked in.
They play the Chiefs in the final round in what should be a much tougher assignment. They could still theoretically finish on top in New Zealand if they win both of these matches and other results fall their way.
Sharks
The Sharks are drawing a few raised eyebrows at the moment as they look likely to qualify as the third-best South African team despite possibly finishing the season with a record worse than that of whichever Australasian team winds up missing out.
That said with matches against the Cheetahs and the Sunwolves coming up in the final two weeks, they’ve got the opportunity to get two wins, possibly two big wins, and finish with a record more befitting a finals team. If they drop either, or both, they’ll be within striking distance of the Bulls – but they shouldn’t.
Waratahs
The Tahs could rightly claim to be a little hard done by at the moment – they’re equal on points with the Brumbies and have a better points difference, but are being kept off the top of the Australian conference because they have one less win. They’ve also got a better record than the Sharks, but are missing out on a wild card spot all the same.
They do have a chance to make their own luck this week with a game against the Hurricanes – a win there will give them a serious chance at pushing one of the New Zealand teams out of a wildcard spot. Back that up with a win against the Blues and they’d have to be quite unlucky to miss out.
However, if they drop either of those matches, it’ll be looking like season over for NSW.
Bulls
Dropping a game to the Jaguares on the weekend has the Bulls looking all but finished, though they are still a mathematical chance to make the finals. They’ve got matches against the Sunwolves and the Cheetahs in the final two rounds, and would plan to win both, but need the Sharks to drop one of their matches (against the same two teams, oddly enough) to be any change of pushing into a wild card spot.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.