So we don’t have an election result in Australia yet, but by the end of the weekend we might just have eight teams confirmed for the Super Rugby playoffs.

But we won’t necessarily have reined in The Crowd, who jagged another eight from nine last week to carry their narrow lead forward another week.

Which means we’d got to really make up some ground this week. So this could be entertaining.

Paddy has this week thrown the Big Super Rugby Question back into the mix, and Digger will again lead us off courtesy of an eight from nine round himself.

Last week: Digger and The Crowd 8, Harry 7, Paddy and Brett 6.

Diggercane: “I liked what I saw from the Blues live last Saturday and really fancy their chances against a visiting Brumbies side in Auckland, so Blues to cause a boil over. And I think the Chiefs will dispatch the Reds easily in the end; just far too much strike power for the Reds to resist over 80 minutes.

“The Lions will dispatch the Kings ruthlessly, while I expect the Crusaders to also deal with the Rebels comfortably. The Stormers look likely to cap off their Australian tour with a comfy win over the Force, while the Bulls and Sharks will be too much at home for their respective opponents. Even more so after losses for both last weekend.

“The Highlanders have plenty of cavalry to introduce back into the side for the Jaguares and should be good enough but it does appeal as a classic banana skin type fixture, particularly after a vastly improved Jaguares performance on the weekend.

“And to finish, ‘Canes. By enough.”

Tips: Blues, Chiefs, Lions, Crusaders, Hurricanes, Stormers, Bulls, Sharks, Highlanders.

Harry Jones: “I like it when Digger is ahead and he does the equivalent of Nic Frisby and doesn’t kick the ball into touch and the Brumbies score after the half time hooter. This week he has tipped two Kiwi teams to win upsets and that’s one too many; he tried for that extra yard and I will catch the ball and run it back.

“Speaking of running, the Blues do a lot of that, but I see this coming down to the cleverness of kicking by Ihaia West, who is in a personal duel with Beauden (‘Bok Beating Bastard’) Barrett for the most kicks out of hand in the Super Rugby season (West has kicked 125 times; Barrett 119 times), but seems to make crucial errors with the boot. The Brumbies have lost players they miss more than any other team and also resist rotation, two facts that may relate. The Blues are better than their standings suggest. Jerome Kaino will be man of the match and there will be rejoicing in Sydney.

“Obviously, then, I am tipping the Jaguares. Yes, I am. The Pumas Minus Cubelli (aka last year’s semi-finalists in the Rugby World Cup, with a few changes) will defeat the Highlanders in their Buenos Aires fortress, perhaps with sideways rain. And I will draw level with Digger. The Argentines won’t add to their 10-card collection, and Nic Sanchez will continue to remember he is a Test flyhalf. He might even slot two drop goals against the Highlanders who kick and tackle the most in the competition (the All Blacks ‘assign’ each franchise a style they need to fit into Test footy – this year the Highlanders were assigned kick-chase).

“Most of the other games are foregone conclusions, but compelling personal statistical leader rivalries spice them up. The Reds will lose at home to the mighty Chiefs, but Liam Gill will continue his drive to win the most turnovers (with main rival David Pocock out of action). He has 19 and needs six more in the last two games. Sam Cane is trying not to be the most penalised player in the tournament (he has been whistled 20 times).

“The irresistible Red Lion Wave will sweep the Kings away from Ellis Park’s hard surface. The leader in tries and points will add to their lead; while the tournament’s leading tackle-missers (332 so far) will fall off. From personal experience, you can think you are a great tackler until you go to Johannesburg or Pretoria and try to tackle on a field that feels like the floor of a prison shower without any oxygen or mercy.

“Ruan Combrinck, recently anointed by Spiro as second only to Ben Smith as a winger, will play the part of punishing prison guard and try to go ahead of Nemani Nadolo and Joe Tomane in the race for most clean breaks. (As for the personal missed tackle derby, two playmakers in prior-mentioned matches go head to head: Jake McIntyre’s league-leading 36 misses will try to stop the rot and allow Sanchez (27) to catch up.

“Eight Crusaders have offloaded at least ten times; the Rebels will be dizzy after being steamrolled by giant Stormers and now trying to beat the Christchurch men at keep-away ball. It would help if the Rebels didn’t miss so many chances to score points: 72 squandered points off the tee this season. Crusaders by plenty.

“The Waratahs don’t win turnovers. The Hurricanes are the best at it; they use a committee. Israel Folau will try to compensate for that from first and second phase ball, and while he is at it, attempt to defeat Dane Haylett-Perry in metres run, but the rugby gods will reward the ‘Canes for observing ancient wisdom. ‘Canes by a point or two.

“DHP is tireless. He will run as if he is Damien McKenzie’s and Folau’s love child. But the Stormers will steal too many lineouts and win too many scrums against the head and generally just bruise their way to a comfortable win in Durban East.

“Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit are locked in a struggle to steal more lineouts. With much less game time, Etzebeth has the lead (13 to 11). These two young locks have outstolen the Rebels, Force and Tahs combined! (Or the Brumbies and Reds combined). The Force will probably have the comp’s leading tackler, but Etzebeth has astonishingly missed only four tackles (including the June Tests) all year.

“The Bulls will only win because the Sunwolves haven’t practiced tackling in a parking lot full of Harleys. But if they miss enough tackles, the Japanese side will catch the Kings in the ultimate futility statistic.

“The Sharks are even better than the Hurricanes at winning turnovers, but are not very good at capitalising on them; and with six of their best backline players injured, I wouldn’t expect much of a points surge, even with the Cheetahs setting the pace for knock-ons (241) in the competition. Home sides will win in South Africa.”

Tips: Blues, Chiefs, Lions, Crusaders, Hurricanes, Stormers, Bulls, Sharks, Jaguares.

Paddy Effeney: “This week’s tipping is informed by the theory of ‘those who need to win most’, and where those theories don’t apply – ‘those who are better than the team they are playing.

Going by the theory, the Waratahs will beat the Hurricanes in what looms as the upset of the round. Similarly, the Brumbies will beat the Blues.

The Chiefs are better, as are the Lions, as are the Crusaders and the Stormers.

The Bulls need to win, so there’s that tip, and Sharks and Highlanders are in far greater need than their opponents. Easy round right?”

Tips: Brumbies, Chiefs, Lions, Crusaders, Waratahs, Stormers, Bulls, Sharks, Highlanders.

Brett McKay: Eleven points. That’s the task ahead of me, and now if the time to launch my tilt. Easy. Next challenge…

It took them half an hour, but the Brumbies hit their groove last week against the Reds, and in the likely wet wintery weather in Auckland on Friday night, the kick for territory, set piece and driving maul game will serve them well. And it might just erase some Blues-around-finals-time demons too, but more on that tomorrow.

The Reds were actually really good last week – they certainly weren’t twenty points worse than the Brumbies. But they might be twenty points worse than the Chiefs. The Kings will definitely be twenty points worse than the Lions, and worse, they’ll look up at the clock and realise they’ve got 65 more minutes to play. The Crusaders won’t quite have it that easy against the Rebels, but the Rebels will be made to pay for the loss in Suva last week.

The Waratahs. In Sydney. With no-one giving them a hope. It’s the perfect recipe to rock the Hurricanes’ boat.

And speaking of windy teams getting knocked off, I give the Force a massive chance against the Stormers. Partly because I’m desperate for points – largely because I’m desperate for points, in fact – but partly because if the Force watched the Stormers’ win over the Rebels, they’ll have noticed that the Stormers were destroying the Rebels set piece. They also weren’t exiting their own 22 that well, and they really weren’t asking that many questions of the Rebels’ defence. If they can keep the set piece battle to a minimum, then they showed last week they have plenty of tricks up their sleeve.

Bulls and Sharks, but that says more about their opposition than of their current form. And the Jaguares, because of the glossy brochure sales job in the Jones Opus above. And because I’m desperate for points.

Tips: Brumbies, Chiefs, Lions, Crusaders, Waratahs, Force, Bulls, Sharks, Jaguares.

Return of The Big Question: (from Paddy) Does anyone see a world where two Australian teams make the finals from here?

Diggercane: “Now, it’s not something that I can say I personally want to see as obviously I want the Kiwi sides to succeed and obviously mostly the Hurricanes, well a lot of mostly really and if the Australian sides were to qualify two teams then it would probably be my side to miss out.

“But of course it is possible. The Waratahs seem to have struck a rhythm in recent times and are more than capable of winning their next two games, against my mob at home and the Blues away and have a good deal of experience to call upon to make it happen as do the Brumbies, stacked full of internationals and the Force on the horizon in Canberra to boot.

“Both sides need to win this weekend, a loss for either could spell the end of their season. Motivation will not be lacking and the ability is there so yes it is possible, especially if the Highlanders and/or Hurricanes slip up in the coming two closing weeks which is quite the possibility given both of their respective schedules and opponents.

“Fun times ahead.”

Harry: “If I squint my eyes, and try to imagine a world without New Zealand rugby, then yes, I can see it.”

🙂

Paddy: “As for whether the Waratahs could shove any of the New Zealand teams out of the top eight, I would say they should hold out hope! If the ‘Canes lose, they will be in the firing line against the Crusaders next week. Digger, I think there’s a possibility here…”

Brett: Yeah, I can definitely see it. It will take a couple of results this week that will be seen as upsets, but in reality, none of them would be out of the ordinary.

The Waratahs would have to beat the ‘Canes this weekend. If that doesn’t happen, then call Crowded House right there, because we will be dreaming it’s over.

The Highlanders have to travel from South Africa to Argentina – hopefully they won’t have to fly the last leg in paper planes like the Chiefs had to earlier this season – and reconnect with all their international players, and then take one the Jaguares who have suddenly discovered that winning is more fun than dropping blokes on their head.

And the weather forecast for Saturday in Buenos Aires? “Sunny intervals.” Which from memory, is quite similar to what I read this time week. So when the heavens do open and the mud becomes sloppy, the Jaguares will fancy their chances, and so they should. And if that happens too, then the ‘Tahs can sneak into the eight this weekend.

Then, next week, it’s just business as usual. The ‘Tahs and Brumbies beat teams that they should beat, and the Chiefs and the Crusaders take care of the Highlanders and Hurricanes. Easy.

Two Australian teams in the eight. And no squinting required!

The Summary

The Crowd’s Round 16 tips
The selections are in, and it’s clear The Crowd is banking on the Kiwis..

53.4% Blues
96.3% Chiefs
98.4% Lions
98.8% Crusaders
55.6% Hurricanes
84.3% Stormers
94.6% Bulls
90.6% Sharks
78.8% Highlanders