Not so long ago, North Melbourne and West Coast fans both had genuine reason to believe that their teams could make this year’s grand final.
While that belief has taken a battering over the past month, it could be revived today.
The match between these sides in Perth long has shaped as pivotal to the makeup of the eight. But Greater Western Sydney’s unexpected loss to Collingwood means the winner has more to gain than expected, with a top-four spot now potentially up for grabs.
If Carlton can beat Adelaide today at the MCG – scoring an upset win like they did against Geelong a month ago – then the winner between the Roos and the Eagles can vault into fourth place.
And either North or West Coast could well hold onto that top-four spot for a while thanks to their relatively soft runs in the coming rounds. The Roos’ next three games are in Melbourne against sides outside the eight in Port Adelaide, Collingwood and St Kilda.
Notch a morale-spiking win on the road today and they easily could find themselves back in the flag hunt at 14-4 after Round 19. On the flipside, if they register their fifth loss in their past six games it will be extremely difficult to generate the momentum they need to finish the season with a surge and reclaim a top-four spot.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have very winnable games over the next four rounds against Carlton (away), Melbourne (home), Collingwood (away) and Fremantle (home). They would look out of place in the top four after this round but these are the surprises of such a tight season.
West Coast have been rampant at home this year, in blinding contrast to their meek efforts outside WA. Their seven home wins may have been by an average margin of 69 points, but the one time they faced a quality opponent, Adelaide, the Eagles folded before a disappointed home crowd.
Last year’s grand finalists were widely expected to push deep into September again this season, and many pundits and fans rated them premiership favourites. Fifteen rounds into the season and they look like pretenders, having lost all five of their matches against current top eight opponents, including lopsided matches against Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn.
Against quality sides their midfield has been exposed again and again, both for a lack of midfield grunt and outside polish. The one player who was saving their midfield from being an embarrassment was champion ruckman Nic Naitanui.
Now that they’ve been stripped of their most valuable player in Naitanui, the Eagles look decidedly vulnerable today. West Coast’s on ballers are used to operating from a position of great advantage due to Naitanui’s aerial prowess.
Today they’ll be forced into the unfamiliar scenario of needing to read the taps of the opposition ruckman in Todd Goldstein.
The reigning All-Australian ruckman will control the stoppages. A fine ruck counterpart for Naitanui, Scott Lycett is still unproven as a number one big man and is not close to being in the same league as Goldstein.
With Naitanui in the side West Coast would deservedly be robust favourites to triumph today. His absence makes it close to a 50-50 contest in my opinion, and one which neither side can afford to lose.
Today, one of these teams will have their grand final hopes extinguished while the other will dare to dream.
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