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Earlier this season I publicly wrote off 12 teams in a column that precipitated spirited debate about the use of a top eight, the quality of the competition, and my mental state.
I made a couple of errors – I did not include Adelaide or GWS as genuine contenders, and I believed Port Adelaide would be a force to be reckoned with.
Other than that I was more or less on the mark. Hawthorn, the Western Bulldogs, Sydney, Geelong and the Eagles will all figure in the equation – as will the Giants and the Crows.
North looked like proving me wrong for a while before collapsing like an IKEA bunk bed under Clive Palmer after a night at the Kennedy Room.
First things first, Sydney are a strong side, talented and experienced. However, they’ve been exposed a couple of times this season – by GWS and by the Hawks. Keep in mind Paul Puopolo had an average game and James Sicily did nothing at all on the weekend and Hawthorn still managed to knock off the Swans at home. It bodes menacingly for the finals, during which the Hawks will not have the travel north.
Adelaide are shaping as a big threat. They’ve got the capacity for huge drive through the midfield, a solid defence and some electrifying talent up forward. How they go at Kardinia Park this coming round will tell us a lot. The Crows lost to the Cats at home last time, but they’ve gone up more than a notch since then.
I would love to see the Dogs bring home the cup this season. I’ve gone through their credentials in a bit more detail earlier and will keep this brief. Despite injury problems they remain a dynamic, determined side. Strong at winning the contested footy – which is absolutely key in finals, very strong in defence. If they click at the right time, they could knock the haughty birds off their perch.
West Coast proved again that they travel like a drunken sailor with an insipid performance against Carlton. Having said that, as I have written earlier, they remain a side with the cattle to pose problems if they can fix their apparent mental issue with playing on the road.
Geelong are a frustrating side. Like the Cats of the golden age they retain a capacity to flatten their opponents with a burst of hyper-attacking footy that racks up four or five goals. Unlike the Cats of old, they now seem to do this once a game or not at all.
If they can recapture the form that saw them smash the Dogs, Crows, North and the Eagles – not to mention Hawthorn in Round 1 – then look out. They’ll need to finish fourth to play in Melbourne in the first week of the finals.
A third place finish and a final in Sydney could be fatal, but there is plenty of experience still in the team.
Here is my smokey – Greater Western Sydney. Stage fright? Who cares? Like the Dons of 1993, there are a few very experienced blokes in the midst surrounded by some extremely talented kids who can run run run.
Steve Johnson has a ludicrous pedigree (VFL flag in 02, AFL flags in 07-09-11, finals in 04, 05, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14…), and he won’t be the only one accustomed to the big stage.
If they keep their cool, they could smash a few more experienced teams. How furious would Dockers fans be if the Giants snaffled a premiership this early? Break out the popcorn.
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