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Sri Lanka will rely overwhelmingly on three players in the Test series against Australia which starts on Tuesday.
Captain Angelo Mathews, keeper-batsman Dinesh Chandimal and spinner Rangana Herath will have to play out of their skins if Sri Lanka are to push the tourists.
That trio have been carrying the Sri Lankan team since the retirements 11 months ago of legendary batsmen Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene.
In that time, Sri Lanka have played eight Tests for two wins, five losses and a draw. Their victories came at home against the West Indies, who are an absolute basketcase. Among their five losses were three very heavy defeats, two by an innings and another by nine wickets.
Their batting now leans almost entirely on the contributions of the pugnacious Mathews and the graceful Chandimal, after having had an even spread of contributors for years.
Aside from the star power of Jayawardene and Sangakkara, who both scored more than 11,000 Test runs, Sri Lanka used to get strong input from the likes of Thilan Samaraweera (5462 runs at 49 in Tests) and Tillakaratne Dilshan (5492 runs at 41).
The last time they played Australia in Tests, early in 2013, Sri Lanka had a very strong batting line-up which included Sangakkara, Jayawardene, Mathews, Dilshan, Samaraweera and Chandimal. Australia, meanwhile, were in a mess and just months away from beginning their horrendous run of nine consecutive Tests without a win.
Yet, even still, Australia thrashed Sri Lanka 3-0, including an extraordinary victory by an innings and 201 runs in the second Test at the MCG. It should have been a far more competitive series. Instead, its lopsided nature underscored the mental stranglehold the Aussies have over the Sri Lankans.
In 29 Tests against Australia, only once have Sri Lanka triumphed. Even that one victory was not a fully-fledged win, completed against an Australian side which was down to nine men after a horror collision in the field between their best batsman, Steve Waugh, and gun paceman (and Roar columnist) Jason Gillespie.
That collision occurred midway through Sri Lanka’s first innings, leaving Australia with just three bowlers for the rest of the Test, and missing the batting contributions of Waugh and Gillespie in their second dig. That was 17 years ago. Since then, Sri Lanka have gone 15 Tests without a win against Australia.
When Australia last toured Sri Lanka in 2011, the home team were warm favourites. The Aussies were fresh from being humiliated 3-1 in the Ashes and fielded a team laden with rookies, including bowling debutantes Nathan Lyon and Trent Copeland.
Yet Australia outplayed Sri Lanka in all three Tests, and only poor weather in the second and third Tests likely saved the home side from losing 3-0 instead of 1-0.
To fully understand the mental block Sri Lanka have against Australia you must consider their records against other sides.
Across their history, Sri Lanka have a 1-17 win-loss record against Australia. Opposed to all other teams their win-loss record is good at 74-75. They are 8-12 against England, 7-16 against India and 5-11 against South Africa.
They have been far from powerless against the other leading Test nations. Australians might not even be aware of how good we are against Sri Lanka – the Pearl of the Indian Ocean is our bunny.
In 2016, the Australians this time arrive in Sri Lanka as the world’s number one Test side – settled, confident and coming off a brilliant series in foreign conditions.
Since the Australian team was overhauled following last year’s Ashes loss, its top five has been stellar and its attack consistent and lethal. New keeper Peter Nevill has slotted in nicely, displaying clinical glovework and tenacious batting.
Even their spin stocks look robust heading into this series. Lyon has come of age as a cricketer; the off spinner has taken 54 wickets at an average of 26 in his past 14 Tests and was the second best bowler, after England’s Stuart Broad, in the last Ashes.
Meanwhile, his backup Steve O’Keefe was phenomenal in the warm-up match against the Sri Lanka XI, snaring 10-64 and cracking 78 not out. Lyon and O’Keefe will partner ace new ball pair Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood, with all-rounder Mitch Marsh offering a quality third pace option.
It shapes as a perfectly balanced attack and one which is capable of running through the weak Sri Lankan batting line-up. Sri Lanka are especially vulnerable because of the fact that their only two proven batsmen, Mathews and Chandimal, bat down at five and six.
As a result, they frequently find themselves three-for-not-many. I expect that problem to continue in this series against the miserly Hazlewood and dynamic Starc, who is fully fit for the first time in a long time after finally having surgery on his troublesome ankle.
As weak as the Sri Lankan batting appears, their bowling is of even greater concern. So riddled are they by injury and suspension that they have called into their Test squad an 18-year-old fast bowler who has played just two first-class matches.
Quicks Dhammika Prasad and Dushmantha Chameera were injured in the series in England, while fellow seamer Shaminda Eranga has been suspended by the ICC for an illegal bowling action. This has left Sri Lanka with a bare bones attack, with Herath as their only quality bowler.
And time, quite fairly, appears to be catching up with 38-year-old Herath, who has averaged a lofty 37 with the ball in Tests over the past 18 months. He does, however, have a good record against Australia, with 38 wickets at 30 from eight Tests.
Herath is very similar in style to O’Keefe – short in stature with a round-arm action, and a reliance on accuracy and subtle variations, rather than sharp turn or startling bounce.
If Australia can neutralise him then this series will be a one-sided slaughter. Even if Herath has a good series, it is difficult to see where he will get sufficient support for Sri Lanka to take 20 wickets.
I expect Sri Lanka to finish this three-match series still with only one win in history against Australia. It won’t be close. Australia will have gained huge confidence from their thrashing of the feeble Kiwis in New Zealand a few months ago.
They will win this series either 2-0 or 3-0 with Starc, Hazlewood and Steve Smith running amok.