The men’s and women’s draws for the tennis tournament at the 2016 Rio Olympics have been released and it has produced quality first round matches as well as some potential clashes to watch out for over the next week.
Before we get to the analysis of both the men’s and women’s draws, it must be noted that unlike London 2012, there will be no rankings points on offer, and all matches except the men’s gold medal match (which will be played in the five-set format, as at the Grand Slams) will be played in the best-of-three sets format.
Additionally, there will be six rounds of competition, which is one round less than at Majors (and therefore 64 less players in the draw).
The fact that no rankings points (or prize money, as a matter of fact) will be offered means the players will effectively be playing for nothing except medals, thus also effectively rendering the tennis tournament as somewhat of an exhibition only.
Let’s now get to the analysis of both the men’s and women’s draws.
The top two seeds, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, are on opposite sides of the draw which means they cannot face each other until the gold medal match, neither can Rafael Nadal or Kei Nishikori who are seeded third and fourth respectively.
Just four years ago, Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro met for the Bronze Medal, with the Argentine winning in straight sets. This year, they meet in the first round where Djokovic will have his chance to avenge that defeat from London.
Though the world number one would be expected to win easily, it won’t come easy if that aforementioned match, as well as their semi-final showdown at Wimbledon in 2013, is anything to go by.
Additionally, del Potro, whose ranking is currently at 145th following yet another long injury lay-off, has demonstrated the capability to spring an upset or two at major tournaments.
Just recently he defeated Stan Wawrinka at Wimbledon while on his way to the 2009 US Open title he became the first man to defeat both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in succession at a Major.
Thus, Djokovic is going to have his work cut out as his bid to win his first gold medal and second Olympic medal overall (he won the Bronze Medal at Beijing in 2008) faces its first major hurdle.
The seed the Serb is projected to face in the third round is American 14th seed Jack Sock, while French fifth seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could await in the quarter-finals.
Should Djokovic and Tsonga meet in the final eight, it would be the second consecutive time the pair have met at the Olympics, also meeting at this exact same stage in London with Djokovic winning in straight sets.
The second quarter will see 2008 gold medallist Rafael Nadal face another Argentine, Federico Delbonis, with a potential third round showdown against Frenchman Gilles Simon looming if the Spaniard can get this far.
Belgian eighth seed David Goffin could then stand in the way of the 30-year-old and a possible semi-final showdown against Novak Djokovic, which would be their second meeting at an Olympics after they met at this stage at Beijing in 2008.
Moving down to the bottom half of the draw now, which is led by reigning gold medallist Andy Murray and Japanese fourth seed Kei Nishikori.
Nishikori starts off against Spaniard Albert Ramos-Vinolas, with German 13th seed Philipp Kolschreiber his projected third round opponent. Australian John Millman, our highest ranked participant, is also in this section of the draw and he could face Nishikori in the second round.
Either French sixth seed Gael Monfils or Croatian ninth seed Marin Cilic could await Nishikori in the quarter-finals; both face tricky first round matches against Vasek Pospisil and Grigor Dimitrov respectively.
Down in the bottom quarter of the draw, Andy Murray will start his bid for a second Olympic gold medal against Serbia’s Viktor Troicki, and all going well, could face Benoit Paire in the third round, Spaniard David Ferrer in the quarter-finals and then Nishikori in the final four.
Barring any major upsets in the men’s draw, the quarter-finals onwards could look like this:
Quarter-finals projection
Novak Djokovic (SRB) versus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA)
Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus David Goffin (BEL)
Gael Monfils (FRA) versus Kei Nishikori (JPN)
David Ferrer (ESP) versus Andy Murray (GBR)
Semi-finals
Novak Djokovic (SRB) versus Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Kei Nishikori (JPN) versus Andy Murray (GBR)
Gold medal match
Novak Djokovic (SRB) versus Andy Murray (GBR)
Bronze Medal match
Rafael Nadal (ESP) versus Kei Nishikori (JPN)
Now shifting focus to the women, where the top two seeds, Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber, are on opposite sides of the draw and thus cannot face each other until the gold medal match. Neither can Garbine Muguruza or Agnieszka Radwanska who have been assigned to those respective halves of the draw.
Williams will start her gold medal defence against Russian-turned-Australian Daria Gavrilova, and should she progress far as expected, Elina Svitolina, Petra Kvitova and Roberta Vinci could loom as further obstacles going forward.
Vinci and Kvitova could (and should) meet in the third round, but the latter may have to face former world number one Caroline Wozniacki in the second round for that meeting to eventuate.
Williams is projected to face her French Open conqueror Garbine Muguruza in the semi-finals, but she could also face her elder sister and 2000 gold medallist Venus Williams there.
Muguruza and Venus Williams are projected to meet in a blockbuster quarter-final, but first they must encounter Jelena Jankovic and Kirsten Flipkens in their respective first round matches.
The Spaniard’s projected third round opponent is recent Wimbledon quarter-finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova while Venus could face Lucie Safarova in the second round and then either Tsvetana Pironkova or Timea Bacsinszky in the third.
Moving down to the bottom half of the draw, where American seventh seed Madison Keys and fourth seed Agnieszka Radwanska are projected to face off in the third quarter,
Keys faces Danka Kovinic in her first match and could then face either former world number one Ana Ivanovic or Spanish ninth seed Carla Suarez Navarro in the third round.
Radwanska’s first opponent is China’s Saisai Zheng, with Czech 16th seed Barbora Strycova or former French Open finalist Sara Errani both looming as her potential third round opponent.
In the bottom quarter, two-time Grand Slam champion Svetlana Kuznetsova is up against China’s Qiang Wang in her first match, with Great Britain’s Johanna Konta her projected third round opponent and Australian Open champion Angelique Kerber her projected quarter-final opponent.
Kerber starts off against Colombia’s Mariana Duque-Marino but could then face a tricky second round opponent in the form of either Canadian Eugenie Bouchard or American Sloane Stephens, both of whom are making their Olympic debuts.
Both Bouchard (3-1) and Stephens (2-1) hold winning records against Kerber and defeated the German in their most recent meetings, Bouchard in Rome and Stephens via a retirement in Charleston, both this year.
As for the pair’s head-to-head, it is 2-apiece with Bouchard claiming their most recent meeting in straight sets at Indian Wells earlier this year.
Australian Samantha Stosur is also in this section of the draw and she faces Jelena Ostapenko in the first round, with any of Kerber, Bouchard or Stephens set to await the former US Open champion in the third round should she get that far.
Barring any major upsets in the women’s draw, the quarter-finals onwards could look like this:
Quarter-finals projection
Serena Williams (USA) versus Roberta Vinci (ITA)
Garbine Muguruza (ESP) versus Venus Williams (USA)
Madison Keys (USA) versus Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Svetlana Kuznetsova (RUS) versus Angelique Kerber (GER)
Semi-finals
Serena Williams (USA) versus Venus Williams (USA)
Madison Keys (USA) versus Angelique Kerber (GER)
Gold medal match
Serena Williams (USA) versus Angelique Kerber (GER)
Bronze medal match
Venus Williams (USA) versus Madison Keys (USA)
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