Two games today, so let’s save as much space as we can for previewing them both. It’s the Swans ‘hosting’ the Giants, and the Crows set to bash the brains out of the ‘Roos on a Super Saturday AFL Finals day.
Rather than do two separate previews, I’ve instead combined today’s games into a single piece to save you some precious family time on this pre-final Saturday morning – costing myself some coin in the process. Don’t say I never do anything for you…
Clean your house, do your grocery shopping, hug your children and be nice to your significant other, because you’ll be spending the next eight hours on your couch watching two games of significance. One looks like a walkover from here, yes, but we said that about Thursday night too.
You can catch up on my broader thoughts on this finals series here – suffice to say things have moved a little since Wednesday.
Click here to see Ryan’s Geelong versus Hawthorn Forecast, and his West Coast versus the Western Bulldogs Forecast.
Sydney versus GWS: Finals Forecast
The Fremantle Dockers entered the competition in 1995, and yet the two West Australian teams are yet to play off in a final. The Giants, by contrast, have existed as an AFL entity for a mere five years, and are playing in their first final against their home state rival. Football is fun.
Football is really, really fun.
This afternoon, we get to see the league’s best defensive side go up against the team I’d call the most aggressive in the competition – and when it comes off for them, they’re the best attacking team in the league. Add the derby intrigue, and the genuine neutral ground that this is to be played on, and the recipe for another outstanding game of football exists.
The Swans and Giants have won 12 of their past 14 when combined, with losses coming to fellow finalists in Hawthorn and West Coast, respectively. Like many of this year’s top eight, the teams they’ve played aren’t of the same calibre as those to come, but wins are wins, and big wins, of the variety both teams have managed, are indicative.
The Giants and Swans have played twice this year, splitting the ledger along home field lines. Round 12’s match was, in many ways, when the AFL world began to take GWS seriously, with a dominant display across all three areas of the ground leading to a 42-point win. The margin padded out a bit in the final quarter, but by that point the Giants had worked the Swans over with their trademark swift ball movement and deadly precision from clearances.
Sydney have tightened their defence up since then though, which is what makes this game such an interesting match up on paper. The Swans haven’t conceded a score over 80 points since the Western Bulldogs beat them in Round 15. But if there is a team that can expose Sydney’s scheme, it’s the Giants.
The Swans have evolved into a team that favours wide open spaces and frantic ball movement. Their defence is so effective because their midfield group works hard to support their permanent defenders, limiting the ability of their opponents to score once they get inside 50. Sydney concede around 51 inside 50s per game, but let their opponents put points on the board just 38 per cent of the time – the latter is 30 per cent better than league average.
GWS, by contrast, work on the basis of creating lots of high quality scoring opportunities through quick ball movement. It offers an interesting balance: the Giants and Swans will both try and play with pace, and both sides will think their system can stand up better than the other in that environment. On a wide and long ground like ANZ Stadium, the stage is set for an expansive, entertaining game.
Both teams bat deep through the middle of the ground: they are arguably the two best midfield units in the league from one through eight. GWS rely on clearance wins to boost their scoring power, where the Swans will feel comfortable taking a more defensive stance and backing their ability to score on turnover.
Callan Ward and Dylan Shiel loom as the two most critical players for the Giants; they provide so much drive, either by feeding the ball out in the case of Ward, or by bursting through congestion and creating space in the case of Shiel. I suspect Sydney coach John Longmire lets Ward go about his business for the most part, throwing him head to head with Josh Kennedy. Shiel may be a candidate for the Mitchell Treatment, in an effort to keep him from using his explosive acceleration in set piece situations.
On GWS coach Leon Cameron’s mind will be what to do with Lance Franklin. No Giant’s defender sticks out as a candidate for a hard, one-on-one job, but Franklin can’t be left alone for his will rain fire down upon those that disrespect his power. Co-captain and key defender Phil Davis will get the match up when he is inside 50, and the Giants may be content to give him some rope should he decide to roam beyond the stripe. It’s a tough one for them, given their penchant for medium sized defenders.
I can’t wait for this to get underway. It probably won’t be an instant classic like last night, but there are all of the makings of a tightly run, open and expansive game of football. These are two sides with a clear commitment to their style of play, and their own twists on the fast football trend which has griped the league this year.
It’s tough to pick a winner, so I’ll double down on my call of a Giants Dynasty and go with them by 12 points. It’s easy to make a case for Sydney too though, so please take my prediction with the usual levity.
Adelaide versus North Melbourne: Finals Forecast
The night games sees a fading team face a rising one; the ‘Roos are in last stand mode where the Crows are just warming up. This, therefore, will be a very short preview.
Adelaide’s season has been quite remarkable, insofar as they have outperformed expectations of modest production to be one of the most successful teams of the year. If it weren’t for a surprise loss to the Eagles in Round 23, Adelaide would be hitting September on a five-game winning streak with some brutal eviscerations of the competition’s also-rans.
The Crows kicked scores of 143, 177, 142 and 109 against Essendon, Brisbane, Fremantle and Port Adelaide, and held them to a combined 264 points. The Eagles, somehow, spoiled their party, but it shouldn’t matter tonight.
North Melbourne’s form line is at the total opposite end of the spectrum. The ‘Roos are in the final stages of a period of being just good enough, and are set to farewell a number of their popular veterans at some point in the next few weeks. The most optimistic assessment of North’s prospects are that they can put in a good show for Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo; the realists would say this is Adelaide’s game so long as all 22 players show up.
Pessimists might say there will blood and guts on the Adelaide Oval turf by the end of the night. I sit somewhere between realist and pessimist: the Crows by 48 points.
Those are my Finals Forecasts, what are yours?
It's honestly obscene. Two weeks in a row, Sydney's winning streak, and their status as undisputed - and heavy - premiership favourites, has seemed…
Joel Amartey was repeatedly taken off the ground in the last quarter despite being a goal shy of a ten-goal haul.
Mitch Hinge didn't take kindly to Adams rubbing in Joel Amartey's huge goals haul with Mark Keane.
Chayce Jones wasn't impressed after a big tackle on Errol Gulden only resulted in a boundary throw-in.
Warner shoved Max Michalanney to give up the touchy-looking free - and he wasn't best pleased.
The commentators believed one umpire might have paid the 50m penalty, only to be overruled by the controlling umpire.
