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It’s the game that still gives Broncos fans nightmares. The 2015 grand final.
Leading by four, with time quickly running out, it looked like the trophy would be headed to Brisbane.
Then there was the try on the siren for Kyle Feldt. The missed conversion. The knock-on by Ben Hunt. The field-goal by future Immortal Johnathan Thurston.
Moments that have been replayed time and again since.
Since that fateful night, the Broncos have been solid but not spectacular, and 2017 was just that.
Third place on the ladder is a great achievement, but for a side with expectations as lofty as the Broncos, it wasn’t all that impressive. Sure, they got to a preliminary final, but the win to get them there was a slender one over the Panthers.
While injuries to Andrew McCullough and Darius Boyd cruelled their chances, Brisbane were alarmingly inconsistent. They won the games they were expected to, losing to sides that would finish out of the top eight on just two occasions, but couldn’t stamp themselves as a genuine premiership threat.
How does their squad rate?
The Broncos add Jack Bird to an already potent backline. James Roberts and Jordan Kahu have mortgages on centre and wing spots respectively. Jonus Pearson spent some time on the wing last season and should get a shot there, with Corey Oates moving to the forwards.
They also welcome back Boyd from a hamstring injury, while losing some depth with Tautau Moga leaving.
The departures of Benji Marshall and Ben Hunt means the halves pairing at this stage will be Kodi Nikorima and Anthony Milford. They both have pace, good running games, and are x-factor players, but who provides the tactical kicking and game management? They struggled with that last year.
The club also lose depth in the forwards. Adam Blair, Jai Arrow and Herman Ese’ese all left without any real signing to replace them. Sam Tagatese joins from the Sharks but is only a fringe first-grader at this stage of his career.
Controversial signing Matt Lodge is set to start the year in the front row with Korbin Sims. There isn’t much to criticise of the second row, made up of rep trio Alex Glenn, Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire.
Sam Thaiday will have a spot on the bench, so too Corey Oates if he plays second row, but outside that there are positions up for grabs.
Ins
Jack Bird (Sharks – 2021), Patrick Mago (Cowboys – 2019), Andre Savelio (Warrington – 2019), Sam Tagataese (Sharks – 2018)
Outs
Jai Arrow (Titans), Adam Blair (Warriors), Herman Ese’ese (Knights), Ben Hunt (Dragons), Matiu Love-Henry (Warriors), Benji Marshall (Wests Tigers), Tautau Moga (Knights), Jai Whitbread (Titans), Joe Boyce, Mitchell Dodds, Travis Waddell (released)
Injuries
Bird had shoulder surgery in the off-season and is aiming to be back Round 4, while McCullough should only miss a round or two.
Jack Bird is off to the Broncos. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
Key man
It is a big year for Anthony Milford. He has played over 100 games now, and is expected to be his club’s dominant half.
Brisbane no longer have depth in the halves, or an experienced campaigner to support Milford. They get McCullough back from injury, but it will take him some time to get back to his best. The same applies to Boyd, too.
Milford was all but man of the match in the 2015 grand final and has the potential to blow a game wide open with his unpredictability. But as far as a leader and a dominant half, we haven’t seen him really take a game by the scruff of the neck yet.
The Broncos need someone kicking for field position and finishing their sets in the right way in 2018. They struggled to build pressure towards the back end of 2017 and the lack of a good kicking game was a contributor.
With so much experience departing, and an injury cloud hanging over a few of their other playmakers, if Brisbane want to get off to a good start, it is up to Milford to provide.
AAP Image/Dave Hunt
Where do they need to improve?
The Broncos won two thirds of their games in 2017, a decent record, and worthy of a top-four finish. But the context of the wins are important.
In the last 12 games of the regular season, Brisbane won against opposition that would make the finals on just two occasions. The other results were either losses or wins against bottom-eight opposition.
Their only win against a top-four opposition all season was against the Roosters, in Round 7 at home.
Beating teams below you is a characteristic of a good team. You have to win the games you are expected to, something a team like Parramatta struggled with last year.
But when you have 52 points put on you at home, two weeks out from the finals, it is an indication that something is not right. They often looked overawed or outgunned in games against quality opposition.
The Broncos need improvement against the top teams, not just an ability to put the lowly sides away. Having a good home record, and winning the games you should on paper are important, but that won’t help you in the finals.
Top five clashes
Round 1: Dragons vs Broncos, Jubilee Oval, March 8
The Broncos are likely to be under-strength for Round 1, and Ben Hunt is likely to be fired up to face his former club. Will Hunt get the early bragging rights or can the Broncos prove that they will thrive without him?
Round 2: Broncos vs Cowboys, Suncorp Stadium, March 16
What a rivalry these two have. It isn’t an easy way for Brisbane to start the season, with two very tough clashes. Will we be off to extra time yet again?
Round 10: Sea Eagles vs Broncos, Suncorp Stadium, May 12
Double-header night and the Sea Eagles once again bring a home game to Brisbane. The Broncos overturned an early deficit last season against Manly, can they get the wood over them again in a special night for Brisbane?
Round 14: Storm vs Broncos, AAMI Park, June 10
The Broncos copped a 30-0 hiding to bow out of the premiership race at this venue last season. A test against the reigning premiers, and an indication of how they are looking mid-season.
Round 24: Roosters vs Broncos, Allianz Stadium, August 25
Latrell Mitchell broke hearts with six minutes to go in the first week of the finals last year, costing Brisbane a home preliminary final. This should be a high-stakes clash so late in the season.
Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images
How will they go?
Fans will feel confident their side is again on their way to September, but the Broncos don’t look like a team that is building towards a premiership.
They looked disjointed and inconsistent to end last year. You can point to the losses of McCullough and Boyd as the reason for that but they go into this year losing plenty of experience and it is hard to see where the control and game management is going to come from.
They look short on depth in areas too.
The smart money says the Broncos will make the finals in 2018, but with things so close in this competition, and more than a few teams around them with fortunes looking up, I can’t put them in the top eight
Predicted finish
9th
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