As the Supercars Championship begins this week with the 20th running of the Adelaide 500, now is time to reflect on what was one of the closer championships of all time in 2017 and predict the standings of what is destined to be another tight title race.

Nick Percat – #8

Team: Brad Jones Racing
2017 result: 19th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 18th

The 2018 season has already raised a number of questions for all teams, but perhaps the biggest question comes when you consider Nick Percat.

The Adelaidean is blessed with the skills to be a race winner, with a hometown win and a Bathurst crown on his resume. But can he be a series champion? The answer remains unknown.

Percat showed his skill by starting with a seventh place in Adelaide to open 2017 as the tide appeared to be turning in Percat’s career, but the inconsistency that had plagued him throughout his time in motorsport quickly returned. Three retirements in the next four races followed by a 21st and a 22nd finish undid any early promise.

A podium at Hidden Valley Raceway was the highlight of a season in which he struggled to make an impact on the leaderboard. He looked for some respite at Mount Panorama, a course where he has better times, but none was to be had. Now heading into his fifth season, this could be Percat’s defining year.

Brad Jones Racing teammate Tim Slade and Percat both showed the car has potential but lacks consistency. BJR fielding new ZB Commodores and switching to a new engine supplier for 2018 could give Percat the opportunity to take advantage of the clean slate.

Best-case scenario
Preseason testing results are a true indication of the team’s potential and the BJR stable emerge as a formidable outfit, with Percat recording podiums and even some wins throughout the year and charges towards the top ten.

Worst-case scenario
Percat’s struggles persist throughout 2018. While he will show glimpses of his potential by leading races, being in podium positions and maximising the BJR car, speed will be the challenge. But with three promising rookies on the BJR roster in the development category, another poor season could spell the end of Percat’s time in the Supercars.

James Courtney – #25

Team: Walkinshaw Andretti United
2017 result: 19th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 17th

The 2017 season proved to be one to forget for James Courtney and his Walkinshaw Racing Commodore. The former series champion limped to his worst ever full-time season finish.

The year started with a bang when Courtney slotted his #22 Commodore onto the podium in the first race in Adelaide, finishing third on Sunday before backing it up with a classy fourth-place finish on Sunday to round out a solid round. But it was all downhill from there.

The rest of the season was something of a nightmare for one of the most decorated drivers in the field. Eight 20th-place or worse finishes, a lone podium and, most stunningly, no race wins for the first time since the 2012 season topped off the season from hell.

But with the new year has come new promise for Courtney and Walkinshaw Racing. They welcome two of the most famous names in global motorsport to the category, partnering with United Autosports and Andretti Autosports to form Walkinshaw Andretti United.

The powerful trio should give Courtney a race car capable of being a race-winner once again, but the question might be whether he still has the desire and drive to be a championship threat. After his most difficult year and after a career almost anyone else in the field would have in a heartbeat, what more does the 37-year-old have left to prove?

Best-case scenario
The instant influence of Andretti and United provides Courtney with a rocket that makes him a contender in Adelaide, where he has made the podium in the past three years, and at Queensland Raceway, where he has always been strong. He strings together a consistent rebound year and moves towards the top ten.

Worst-case scenario
Last year’s battles carry over to the new ZB and the new team. If Courtney has to go through the wars again this year, he might wave the white flag at season’s end, call time on his illustrious career and go down as an all-time great.

Jack Le Brocq – #19

Team: Tekno Autosports
2017 result: N/A
2018 prediction: 16th

Jack Le Brocq becomes the fifth rookie to make their debut in the top-flight category in season 2018, securing a seat at Tekno Autosports.

Le Brocq earned his opportunity after three straight finishes in the top three of the Dunlop Series and impressive co-driver stints at Nissan Motorsport and Prodrive (now Tickford Racing), including fourth and seventh-place finishes at Bathurst in 2016 and 2017 respectively.

It will now be the 25-year-old’s responsibility to power Tekno Autosports back up towards the top of the standings.

The small Gold Coast-based team has always punched well above their weight. Shane van Gisbergen threatened for the title before finishing second in 2014 and Will Davison won Bathurst and finished fifth in 2016.

But 2017 was a fall from grace for the team, sliding down the rankings to 15th place after a difficult year. It will now fall to Le Brocq to see if he can record the consistent results needed to be effective in this highly competitive motorsport category.

Le Brocq has shown he possesses the skills behind the wheel to be a success, and with Tekno’s massive investment in newly appointed group principal Adrian Burgess and a new Triple Eight-provided ZB Commodore he has everything he needs to challenge for the mantle of top rookie of the impressive 2018 class.

Best-case scenario
Tekno Autosport re-establishes themselves as the top single-car operation and a team to watch in 2018, providing Le Brocq with the machine needed to be successful. A proven race winner in the development series, Le Brocq continues to put in impressive results to finish consistently in the top 15 and records several surprise podiums.

Worst-case scenario
New team plus new driver normally equals teething problems. These are expected, and it’s not going to be a matter of stopping them, but for Le Brocq it will all be a valuable experience in overcoming them when they happen. There will be some challenges, and the second year will be better.

Rick Kelly – #15

Team: Nissan Motorsport
2017 result: 14th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 15th

A question for you: do you know Rick Kelly is 35 years old? It doesn’t it feel like the baby-faced assassin has been around forever, but after a stellar career spanning 491 starts there isn’t much for the younger Kelly is yet to accomplish.

Race winner: check. Bathurst winner: check – and back to back, mind you. Series champion: check. Team owner: check. Win for your own team: check.

So the question must be asked: what is left for Kelly in 2018? The answer is redemption.

The 2017 season was a disaster and step back for Kelly and the entire Nissan Motorsport team. Neither Rick, his older brother and newly retired Todd Kelly nor stablemates Michael Caruso and Simona de Silvestro were able to record a podium finish in a disappointing year for the Japanese brand after the tremendous strides made in 2016.

The Altima struggled on the harder 2017 Dunlop tyres, failing to generate the pace needed to be a threat to the dominance of Triple Eight Race Engineering and DJR Team Penske at the pointy end of the field.

But as the series shifts back to a softer and more Altima-friendly compound the hope is for Nissan Motorsport that the car speed and performance they enjoyed in 2016 return too.

With big brother Todd stepping out from behind the wheel to focus on steering the team full-time behind the scenes some of the pressure must be taken off Rick, who can return to being a driver first and an owner second.

Best-case scenario
Kelly thrives with the revitalised Altima on the softer rubber, especially after the promising test days at Sydney Motorsport Park, where the Altimas topped the morning session. Kelly has the racecraft to improve on the four top-ten finishes he scored in 2017 and moves up the standings.

Worst-case scenario
Struggles persist through season 2018 as the fight for the life of the Nissan brand in the category comes undone with reliability issues and a lack of car speed. But at least Kelly looks comfortable in front of the camera with a microphone in hand if his next career out of the car starts earlier than planned.

Richie Stanaway – #56

Team: Tickford Racing
2017 result: N/A – 1 win, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 14th

Richie Stanaway was one of the hottest prospects in Supercars history last year, being linked with almost every team on the grid, and it wasn’t hard to see why.

The 26-year-old Kiwi paired with Prodrive young gun Cam Waters to produce impressive Enduro Cup results, including winning the Sandown 500, and executing an incredible drive on a wet Bathurst track. He was looking likely for a stunning Enduro Cup win until a crash with fellow Kiwi Steven Richards on the Gold Coast derailed the dream result.

After eight races in the main game, Stanaway has been thrust into the seat of potentially championship-winning car. Tickford Racing acquired the services of the hot recruit for 2018, slotting him into the vacant seat left by the retired Jason Bright. But with a great car comes great pressure for results.

It will be interesting to see how the full-time rookie copes with the team’s lofty ambitions and expectations. Stanaway, albeit relatively new to the premier Australian category, has a long and illustrious international career, winning multiple championship titles internationally.

He is a natural racer. He has the poise and talent needed to be a race winner, maybe more. There will be a pretty steep learning curve initially, as he learns to set up his own car and adapts to the tracks for the first time.

But of all the young guns this season, the most likely to overcome the curve is Stanaway. He’s ny pick to top the most impressive rookie class of the past decade.

Best-case scenario
Stanaway quickly adapts to the challenges of being in the main game and shows the racing ability and know-how that has made him an international champion. He makes use of Tickford Racing knowledge to quickly tune the FG X Falcon in practice to qualify up the grid and avoid a lot of the early race chaos. Poise delivers him to solid results.

Worst-case scenario
Stanaway struggles with the unique set-up characteristics of the Supercars category and sees off many race weekends chasing the car. Poor qualifying results compound the frustrations. The desire to make up places in races means shooting for gaps that are not there, and too many DNFs to have an impact in his first year.

Garth Tander – #33

Team: Gary Rogers Motorsport
2017 result: 9th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 13th

Garth Tander might not know this, but 40-year-old race drivers are not meant to have one of the most consistent years of their careers in their 19th season.

Rather than settling into the life of am Enduro Cup co-driver after being released by Walkinshaw Racing after 12 years, Tander decided to roll the dice in 2017 and return to where it all began, and it paid off in spades.

Tander rejoined Gary Rogers Motorsport, where he began his Supercars career in a VS Commodore in the late 1990s. The fit was like a hand in an old racing glove, and Tander put in a stellar year, recording a podium at Phillip Island and a fourth-place finish at Sandown, and if it wasn’t for a rookie-like error by the three-time Bathurst winner, he might not have blown a chance at taking home a fourth crown.

Tander is in an envious position where he doesn’t have much, if anything, to lose in 2018. He is a series champion. He possesses a legendary resume. He is still fast. He has embraced the mentor role to rookie James Golding. He is playing with house money.

But surely the luck has to run out soon, and unfortunately 2018 might be the year the dice don’t roll his way.

Best-case scenario
GRM continues to produce a fast and reliable machine for Tander and newly elevated rookie Golding to be able to reach the pointy end of the field. A race win wouldn’t be beyond his skills and could put the cherry on his career.

Worst-case scenario
Difficulties with the new ZB Commodore meshing with the softer Dunlop tyre result in another season of frustrating qualifying results. This could place Tander squarely in the middle pack of hungry young drivers looking to make a name for themselves and overtake a legend at their expense and his.

Scott Pye – #2

Team: Walkinshaw Andretti United
2017 result: 12th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 12th

Scott Pye wrestled the mantle of alpha dog at Walkinshaw Racing from the struggling James Courtney in 2017.

The 28-year-old put in a consistent year highlighted by a stellar second-place finish at Bathurst to record his best-ever championship finish in 12th place, taking points home from every race except for the one abandoned race at Symmons Plains.

The 2018 season sees Andretti Autosports and United Autosports partnering with Walkinshaw Racing, which can only mean good things for the Adelaide driver who is yet to secure his maiden victory.

But perhaps the stability and security of knowing he has no-one over his shoulder threatening his drive will give Pye the confidence to reach the top step of the podium.

As he embarks on his sixth year in the main game Scott Pye has already had a tumultuous career, breaking in with Lucas Dumbrell Motorsport before being elevated to Dick Johnson Racing, but by then they were transitioning from being a title contender to a single-car operation.

Earmarked to partner Marcos Ambrose in the endurance rounds, Pye was thrust into the main seat when former champ Ambrose stepped away from the sport. He then lost his seat to Scott McLaughlin when Roger Penske joined the team.

Walkinshaw Andretti United are in an envious position in the category. There are no title expectations in their first year, they have near unlimited resources, they have global motorsport experience to lean on, they have two quality drivers – they have everything you could possibly want from a Supercars garage. Now they have to manufacture car speed and get results on the track.

While Pye should keep his fenders straight and score solid points, the team is still at least a year away from getting back among the title contenders.

Best-case scenario
Scott Pye breaks through for his maiden win, is able to keep recording strong results all season long and surprises many by being able to maximise the new partners’ strengths and the new ZB Commodore.

Worst-case scenario
The nightmare of 2017 has a second act and the lack of car speed is apparent early in the year, when qualifying struggles result in difficulties come race day. While Pye remains a clean and mistake-free driver, consistently starting from the late-teens and 20s on the grid is a tough slog for any driver no matter their ability.

Craig Lowndes – #888

Team: Triple Eight Race Engineering
2017 result: 10th – 0 wins, 0 poles
2018 prediction: 11th

There is not much left in the sport of Supercars Craig Lowndes is yet to experience – the boy wonder won three series championships by the time he was 25 years old, he won his first Bathurst crown when he was 22 and has won it another five times since then, he is an all-time legend and he’s a fan favourite.

But 2017 was a disappointment to Lowndes, who recorded his worst championship result since the nightmare 2004 season when constant reliability issues saw he finish a lowly 20th.

Where did he finish in 2017 to be disappointed? He finished in tenth. Such are the incredibly high standards Lowndes is held to compared to his peers.

The veteran driver struggled with the harder tyre last year, and in doing so Lowndes failed to record a race victory for the first season since 2004.

Lowndes couldn’t keep temperature in the tyres to extract the kind of performance he is known for. The fact the hard compound is the worst possible tyre for his smooth driving style didn’t help either. But the biggest downfall of the tyre came in qualifying, when constant poor starting positions left too much work left to do on race day for him to be a factor in the championship race.

The return to a more favourable soft rubber for the coming season should hopefully see the fan favourite return to the front of the grid and hopefully an elusive fourth championship title. But the added stresses of being a team owner, running the Autobarn Lowndes Racing title in 2018, could be too much for the legend, who turns 44 in June.

Craig will smile, he won’t make mistakes and he’ll have one or two drives to remind you why he is one of the greatest to ever compete in a touring car, but the legend will fall out of the top ten for the first time in years this season.

Best-case scenario
Lowndes recovers from a disappointing 2017 by his standards and returns to the lofty form he is used to demonstrating. Strong showings to open the season at some of his favourite tracks in Adelaide, Albert Park and Phillip Island set him up for another competitive year, showing this old lion still has some fight yet.

Worst-case scenario
The demands racing place on his body prove to be too much and Lowndes begins to make uncharacteristic mistakes in his quest to show that he still belongs. With so many young guns looking to make a name for themselves by passing the king, Lowndes needs to be on his toes.