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After 25 rounds, and statistically the closest season in history, the 2018 NRL finals series is finally upon us, with seven teams out to ensure that the Melbourne Storm do not repeat as premiers in 2018.
The Storm’s final-round stumble against the Panthers at home allowed the Roosters to take out the minor premiership, with the Rabbitohs and Sharks also finishing on the same amount of premiership points, but with points differentials of +145 and +96 respectively, leaving them in third and fourth place.
Thus, the two qualifying finals will see the Storm host the Rabbitohs in Melbourne and the Roosters lock horns with the Sharks at Allianz Stadium in the battle of the beaches.
In the bottom half of the eight, both the Panthers and Broncos finished with the same points differential, +56, but the mountain men finished higher on the basis of their percentage (attack divided by defence; 112.15% to 111.2% respectively).
This means they will host the Warriors in one elimination final, while the other will see Ben Hunt return to Suncorp Stadium to face his old club for the first time when the Broncos tackle the Dragons at Suncorp Stadium.
Here is your full guide to the first week of the 2018 NRL finals series.
Friday, September 7
7:50pm
AAMI Park
This season
Round 21: Rabbitohs 30 defeated Storm 20 at ANZ Stadium.
Last meeting in a final
Rabbitohs 20 defeated Storm 10 at ANZ Stadium, second qualifying final, 2013.
Craig Bellamy’s men had the chance to become just the second club, after the Sydney Roosters between 2013-15, to claim a hat-trick of minor premierships last Friday night, but, with several key players out, allowed the Panthers to beat them in their own backyard for the first time since 2005.
That result, as well as the Roosters’ big win over the Eels 24 hours later, saw the Storm settle for second place, but not that they will be fussed about it, as their main goal is to successfully defend the premiership they won last year.
They will have to defy history to do so, as no team has managed to go back-to-back in a unified competition since the Broncos in 1992-93.
Their quest starts against the Rabbitohs, who under rookie coach Anthony Seibold have rediscovered the attacking flair that saw them take out the 2014 premiership.
Many experts predicted a long season for the Bunnies after they lost their first two games, but after round eight, they put together a nine-game winning streak to break into the top four, before a late-season form slump that was stemmed by last week’s 51-10 thrashing of the Wests Tigers.
Now, not only do they face the task of tackling the reigning premiers, they also do so in a city where they have never won.
However, hoodoos are meant to be broken.
For the winner
A week off and direct passage to the preliminary final.
For the loser
A shot at the winner of the Broncos vs Dragons elimination final, likely to be next Saturday night.
Prediction: Storm by 10 points.
Billy Slater (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Saturday, September 8
5:30pm
ANZ Stadium
This season
Round 17: Panthers 36 defeated Warriors 4 at Panthers Stadium.
Round 24: Warriors 36 defeated Panthers 16 at Mount Smart Stadium.
Last meeting in a final
Panthers 28 defeated Warriors 20 at ANZ Stadium, second preliminary final, 2003.
After an off-season from hell, during which they lost their star player Matt Moylan to the Cronulla Sharks, it appeared the Panthers had moved on quickly when they ascended to the top of the ladder in Round 12.
However, some poor losses, as well as player dissent, saw coach Anthony Griffin sacked with four rounds remaining, replaced by Cameron Ciraldo.
Under his watch, the Panthers divided their remaining four matches, with their last outing an impressive 22-16 victory over the Storm.
James Maloney made his return from injury in that match, and he looms as their x-factor as they attempt to become the first club since the Bulldogs in 1995 to win the title from outside the top four.
Meantime, the Warriors head into their first finals campaign since 2011 on the back of four wins from their past five matches.
Their eighth-place finish this season follows a strong off-season in which they landed the likes of Tohu Harris and Adam Blair, among others.
They won their first five matches of the year, but their form has been patchy since. Quite appropriately, their match will be at ANZ Stadium, the venue where they lost to the Sea Eagles in the 2011 grand final, which they qualified for after upsetting minor premiers Melbourne in the preliminary final.
It could be Simon Mannering’s final game, after the stalwart announced that he will retire at the end of the season. The club marked his 300th NRL game with a 20-16 win over the Raiders in their final regular season match at home.
For the winner
A shot at the loser of the Roosters vs Sharks match next Friday night.
For the loser
Season over.
Prediction: Panthers by eight points.
The Warriors will lost Simon Mannering at season’s end. (Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
Saturday, September 8
7:40pm
Allianz Stadium
This season
Round 5: Roosters 28 defeated Sharks 10 at Southern Cross Group Stadium.
Last meeting in a final
Roosters 30 defeated Sharks 20 at Allianz Stadium, first qualifying final, 2002.
The Sydney Roosters are the Steven Bradbury of this year’s regular season, having taken advantage of the Storm’s final-round stumble against the Panthers to overtake Craig Bellamy’s men to the top of the ladder.
On the back of an aggressive pre-season, which saw them score the signatures of Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco, the Chooks entered 2018 as the title favourites, and after finishing as the best team after 25 rounds, they are the team to beat in September.
First up on their hit list are the Cronulla Sharks, who have won their past four matches, including defeating the Storm in Melbourne, to finish fourth.
The 2016 premiers warmed up for the finals by defeating the Bulldogs 30-18 at ANZ Stadium, this coming after a week in which salary cap dramas cast a cloud over the side’s campaign.
But having secured the double chance, Shane Flanagan’s men now have the chance to win their second premiership in three years, and upsetting the Roosters at Allianz Stadium will go a long way towards achieving that goal.
This match will kick off less than an hour following full-time of the AFL Sydney Derby elimination final between the Sydney Swans and Greater Western Sydney Giants, next door at the SCG, so a large crowd is expected.
For the winner
A week off and direct passage to the preliminary final.
For the loser
Face the winner of the Panthers vs Warriors match next Friday night.
Prediction: Roosters by 14 points.
James Tadesco of the Roosters (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Broncos vs Dragons
Sunday, September 9
4:10pm
Suncorp Stadium
Round 1: Dragons 34 defeated Broncos 12 at Kogarah Oval.
Broncos 13 defeated Dragons 12 at Suncorp Stadium, second semi-final, 2011.
Ben Hunt returns to Suncorp Stadium with his confidence having deteriorated since the State of Origin series, which has mirrored the Dragons’ late-season form, in which they lost six of their last nine games to drop from the top of the ladder to seventh.
Former teammate Darius Boyd has defended the under-fire halfback, saying that “people should not forget he is only human”.
Hunt’s individual form in recent weeks is a far cry from the man who single-handedly destroyed his old side on the opening night of the NRL season, in which he scored a match-turning intercept try.
Ben Hunt picks-off a Matt Lodge pass and scores under the posts!#NRLDragonsBroncos#NRL pic.twitter.com/gUkdtyhuca
— NRL (@NRL) March 8, 2018
While the Red V have faltered in recent weeks, the Broncos have hit top form, winning their last three matches, including those against fellow finals contenders the Rabbitohs and Roosters.
Their recent form spike comes after reports Wayne Bennett might not coach the club as early as next year, or when his contract runs out at the end of the 2019 season.
They’ll enter the finals high on confidence after thrashing the Sea Eagles by 48-16 at home; while the margin was enough to earn them a home final, they narrowly missed out on finishing fifth by way of having conceded more points than the Panthers in defence.
And despite their heavy loss to the Dragons in the opening round, which was the only time the two teams met in the regular season, they’ll have a good record against St George Illawarra at home to fall back on, having won their last ten meetings at this venue.
Before the men go to war though, their female counterparts will face off in the afternoon in the second of two NRL Women’s Premiership matches, which will make for a huge Sunday afternoon of footy in Brisbane.
For the winner
A shot at the loser of the Storm vs Rabbitohs match, likely to be next Saturday night.
For the loser
Season over, and a long summer of soul-searching.
Prediction: Broncos by 12 points.
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