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The finals always bring with them a bit of melancholy.
This is the last Friday night match of the season, and there are only three more games of footy before the dark clouds of October arrive and turn Melbourne into a spring carnival-soaked hellscape. Here’s hoping these last three games are good ones.
Thankfully, there’s reason to be optimistic, given the sides we have left.
The last time the Tigers and Magpies met, Richmond won by the best part of five goals. But the final score doesn’t tell the entire story.
For three quarters it was one of the games of the season. Collingwood dominating possession against a team that’s as comfortable without the footy as they are with it.
Things changed in the final term, with the Tigers banging through three goals in five minutes to quickly stretch a four-point three-quarter-time lead to 22 points and essentially end the contest.
It was a powerful quarter. Up until the final break, the Pies had 37 more disposals and 20 more contested possessions. In the final quarter, Richmond had a dozen more touches and 11 more contested possessions.
Inside-50s were slightly in Richmond’s favour at three-quarter time (40-37), but in the final term they put the ball into their attack 17 times to Collinwood’s 10.
The result was mostly chalked up to Richmond being better for longer and grinding another opponent down over the course of two hours of high-intensity footy.
That’s a fair assessment. This wasn’t the first time the reigning premiers turned what looked like a contest into a comfortable win.
It shouldn’t be completely overlooked, however, that the Pies were without both Jeremy Howe and Matthew Scharenberg for that fourth quarter, leaving their defence severely undermanned.
It’s unlikely those two would have been the difference between a win and a loss, but it certainly didn’t help.
Scharenberg’s season sadly ended that day after the versatile defender suffered a third ACL rupture, but Howe is back and playing well. Darcy Moore was on the park back in round 19 but won’t be tonight. Stepping in is veteran Tyson Goldsack.
The loss of Moore makes the Collingwood backline smaller, but that shouldn’t cause them too much grief against the Tigers, who do most of their damage with small and medium-sized forwards – superstar Jack Riewoldt the obvious exception.
It’s at the other end of the ground where this contest is more likely to be decided.
One of the talking points that came from the Round 19 clash was the amount of ball Collingwood’s star onballers won.
Steele Sidebottom (38 disposals), Scott Pendlebury (37), Tom Phillips (33) and Taylor Adams (30) all had a heap of the footy. Even ruckman Brodie Grundy’s 23 touches were more than any Tiger had on the day.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The Pies now add Adam Treloar to that mix, so it’s an area they could again have a notional advantage in.
But it’s the Collingwood forward line that makes this game most interesting.
Richmond’s defence – anchored by the great Alex Rance – is cohesive and co-ordinated. Rance, Nick Vlastuin, Dylan Grimes and David Astbury have played plenty of footy together now. They know and trust each other and back themselves when the ball is there to be won.
Collingwood’s forward line doesn’t have the same experience, but it is similarly well structured. Mason Cox is the bailout option and while he’s no star, he is a constant aerial threat who demands attention.
Buzzing around him are a handful of smart, strong and skilful mid-sized forwards who work well together and have the ability to spread out the Richmond defenders and diminish their ability to leave their direct opponents.
Will Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Thomas and Jaidyn Stephenson are all slippery and as capable on the ground as they are in the air. All of them demand respect. All of them are capable of multiple goals.
Jordan De Goey is the jewel in the crown. A little bit bigger, a little bit stronger, a little bit more edge than the aforementioned trio, De Goey is built for September. He has the ability to take a game like this by the throat.
For all that forward talent, Collingwood managed only 77 and 70 points in their two matches against Richmond this season. They need to be better than that.
The Tigers are the best team in the competition. They have the best player in the competition – the best two, in this author’s opinion. They have won their last 22 matches at the MCG. They are ruthless and unforgiving, punishing seemingly every mistake their opponents make.
It must be both physically and mentally exhausting to take them on and it’ll take something special to beat them. Jordan De Goey might just be that something special.
These Pies will be up for the fight; it’s just a matter of how long they can maintain it.
Richmond by three goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?