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This is the sixth of nineteen articles that are looking at the meta-results for both team and players, as collected from ELO-Following Football’s wide range of sources.
Presenting – the Fremantle Dockers.
The team finished in 14th place, with a home-and-away record of 8-14 and a percentage of just 74.
were for about the same, although we at “Following Football” had them making finals in 2018. The average of all the sites we examined put them back in 14th again this year, which turned out to be prescient, but the range was exceedingly wide – from last up to eighth.
Coming into the season, the players who were considered to be in the top 50 in the league by the AFLPA or The Roar included Nat Fyfe (top five), Bradley Hill, and Nathan Wilson.
With the same record of 8-14, the same placement in 14th, and only a very slightly different percentage of 76.
Three, going on four, years since that glorious 2015 season when the Dockers finished on top of the ladder with 17 wins, two more in the finals, and a heart-breaking but convincing loss to the dynastic Hawthorn team set on winning its third straight flag. Fremantle hasn’t played in September since.
It’s been nine seasons since the 2008 and 2009 Dockers teams also finished 14th in back-to-back years. The next season, they jumped up to sixth place. Can it happen again?
Both Fyfe and Fremantle fell short of what they’re capable of in 2018 (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
According to our patented “ELO-Following Football” rating system, the team started the season second from the bottom, at 25.7, with only the Suns below them.
The high point in the season, ratings-wise, was still sub-par, at 38.6 following their Round 13 demolition of Carlton. Coincidentally, that was the last full game Nat Fyfe played before his injury, and by the time he returned in August, they were back into the mid-20s, ending in 16th place at 20.1 after bottoming out against Geelong.
The other rating systems said very much the same thing. All four of them started the Dockers around the 14th place they’d ended 2017 in, all of them moved up slightly while Fyfe was still an MVP candidate and all of them plummeted down to 16th, at the bottom of the still-somewhat-competitive teams (which, arguably, the Blues and Suns weren’t at season’s end).
Final record: 8-14.
Betting Line expectations: 7-15.
ELO-Following Football forecasts: Our ratings only forecast four victories.
AFL.com.au game predictions: 6-16.
The Roar predictions: 5-16-1, with a breakdown of 40-81 among the individual forecasters.
“Pick-A-Winner” predictions: 5.5 wins, 16.5 losses.
The Age forecasters: 6-16, with a 71-193 accumulation of tipsters.
BetEasy “CrowdBet” percentages: The crowd forecasts were for seven wins, 15 losses.
My personal game-by-game predictions pegged them at 3-19, tied for the lowest of any team in the league – yes, ANY team. I freely confess I never believed in their success this season, especially without Aaron Sandilands and a healthy Nat Fyfe.
Coach of the Dockers Ross Lyon. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Round 17’s defeat of then top-four Port Adelaide 59-50 was hardly the most attractive game of footy played in the season, but in terms of their CV, it was most likely Fremantle’s best game of 2018.
If you don’t mind losses as being a best game, you could easily include either the final game of the season against Collingwood, a team primed for its run to the grand final, or the first Western Derby at Optus Stadium in Round 6, when they gave the Eagles arguably the toughest test of their ten-game winning streak.
Unless you’re a Cattery resident, you probably would prefer that the debacle of the last three quarters of Round 22’s Geelong-Fremantle game be erased from everyone’s memory.
It bore little resemblance to a top-level game – after leading three goals to one at the end of one period, the Dockers never found the big sticks again, while Geelong scored an astonishing 23 consecutive goals to win by 133 points, the biggest margin of defeat in Fremantle’s AFL history.
“Well, at least the flag resides nearby now…”
1. Nat Fyfe – 371 points (10th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: third. Despite missing seven games, received 16 Brownlow votes, most on the team.
Last year’s result: first, 25th overall. In 2016, despite injuries, he was still second on the club and 100th overall.
Notable games: Four dominant games (in R5, 8, 10, and 13), and three prominent games (in R2, 3, and 7). Fyfe had 350 points after round 14 and led by 83 points over Tom Mitchell in second – and then his hamstring betrayed him.
All-Australian; ELO-FF Top 22 and interchange midfielder
2. Lachie Neale – 277 points (26th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: first (his second medal – now, he’ll have to strive for Brisbane’s B&F next year). Received 11 Brownlow votes, second most on the Dockers.
Last year’s result: second (43rd overall), and first in 2016 (33rd overall).
Notable games: Two dominant games (in R13 and 21), one prominent game (R23), and one notable game (R12).
All-Australian 40-man roster.
3. David Mundy – 136 points (85th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: second. Received eight Brownlow votes, equal third on the club.
Last year’s result: fifth (101st overall).
Notable games: One dominant game, in R21, and one notable game (R17).
4. Michael Walters – 125 points (91st overall)
Best & Fairest finish: eighth. Received eight Brownlow votes, equal third on the club.
Last year’s result: third in 2017 (56th overall) and 2016 (116th overall).
Notable games: One prominent game, in R10.
Michael Walters was one of the Dockers’ best this year. (AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
5. Ed Langdon – 105 points (110th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: fourth.
Last year’s result: 21st.
Notable games: One notable game, in R21.
6. Nathan Wilson – 90 points (131st overall)
Best & Fairest finish: not in the top ten.
Last year’s result: 13th at GWS.
Notable games: One notable game, R12.
7. Aaron Sandilands – 82 points (155th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: Outstanding clubman. Received five Brownlow votes, fifth most on the club.
Last year’s result: twelfth.
Notable games: One prominent game, in R8.
8. Luke Ryan – 78 points (168th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: fifth.
Last year’s result: tenth.
Notable games: One notable game, R17.
9. Joel Hamling – 65 points (197th overall)
Best & Fairest finish: seventh
Last year’s result: 11th.
Notable games: none.
10. Alex Pearce – 62 points (203rd overall)
Best & Fairest finish: tenth.
Last year’s result: 38th.
Notable games: None.
Captain Nat Fyfe leads the Dockers out. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Fremantle had four top 100 players and nine top 200 players in the 2018 ELO-FF meta-rankings.
Honourable mentions
Connor Blakely – 13th place (49 points), one notable game in Round 13.
Stephen Hill – 14th place (44 points), ninth in Best & Fairest voting.
In: Travis Colyer, Reece Conca, Jesse Hogan, Rory Lobb. Help from back end to front. The Ross has no excuse not to make progress this year.
Gone: Lachie Neale. Yes, that’s a big price to pay. If you’ve still got Nat Fyfe in the midfield, though, you should be able to overcome that loss.
Current list of draft picks: 14, 31, 43, 65, 81
Backs: Taylin Duman, Joel Hamling, Stephen Hill, Griffin Logue, Alex Pearce, Luke Ryan, Nathan Wilson.
Midfielders: Bailey Banfield, Connor Blakely, Andrew Brayshaw, Nat Fyfe, Bradley Hill, Ed Langdon, David Mundy.
Ruckmen: Aaron Sandilands, Rory Lobb.
Forwards: Hayden Ballantyne, Adam Cerra, Brennan Cox, Stefan Giro, Jesse Hogan, Cam McCarthy, Ryan Nyhuis, Matt Taberner, Michael Walters.
Unknown but prayed for: Harley Bennell.
It’s hard to look at that incoming help and not think they’ll be better this coming year than last. But that’s what Port Adelaide thought last year. And that’s what Geelong thought bringing in Gazza this year.
And that’s what the LA Lakers probably think bringing in LeBron this year – actually, that one’s probably going to come true.
Not ‘playoffs’ true, or at least not ‘significant playoffs’ true, but ‘better than last year’ true.
And that’s this edition of the Fremantle Dockers. It seems like they should be close to making it back to finals – our bet is close in 2019, finals in 2020. We’re projecting them in 12th place this year, in a tight pack with GWS, Geelong, and North Melbourne for spots 10 through 13.
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