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To save this third Test Australia likely will have to do something they’ve achieved only once since Steve Smith and David Warner were banned – bat for more than 130 overs in a Test innings.
India once again batted with admirable patience yesterday to grind the Australian bowlers en route to piling up 7-443 declared. Now Australia must follow suit.
The home side have not capitulated with the bat once yet in this series – with their four innings lasting for 98, 120, 108 and 93 overs on what were difficult pitches at Adelaide and Perth.
By comparison, this MCG surface has been dead across the first two days, offering precious little support to the bowlers.
During India’s innings the Australians found less swing and seam movement combined than they have in any home Test since 2006, according to cricket analysts CricViz.
In this Test so far, Australia have found 0.54° of seam, and 0.48° of swing.
Since 2006, Australia have found less seam than in 15 home Tests, and they've found less swing in 12.
They've never done both. #AUSvIND pic.twitter.com/aiTmmGzU64
— The Cricket Prof. (@CricProf) December 27, 2018
That is a remarkable statistic when you consider how many ultra-flat Test pitches have been served up in Australia over those 12 years.
The only time over the first two days when there was significant movement available to the bowlers was with the new ball.
India underlined this late on day two as Ishant Sharma got the ball hooping back in to Aaron Finch and Jasprit Bumrah earned darting seam movement.
If Australia can weather the first 20 overs of their innings without suffering major damage they will have no excuse for not batting long.
The pitch is barely turning, and that’s unlikely to change dramatically today, which will reduce the threat posed by Indian spinner Ravi Jadeja.
Once the new ball is negotiated, the main challenge from India’s quicks is likely to be the odd ball which keeps low.
In such conditions, patience is pivotal, as the Indian batsmen highlighted. Although bowling is hard yakka on this surface it also does not foster free scoring.
Even Indian captain Virat Kohli, a natural strokemaker, shackled his attacking instincts in response to the lifeless surface, making 82 from 204 balls.
Batting time, like Kohli and Cheteshwar Pujara (106 from 319 balls), will be the key for Australia. While India surely cannot lose the Test from here they now face the challenge of taking 20 wickets in the next three days on a sleepy pitch with a four-man attack.
Australia must bat for at least the next four sessions to tire the Indian bowlers and force Kohli to start chasing the game.
If they can do that, Australia should have reduced India’s lead to somewhere between 110 and 140. Then India would have to go back into bat, with just five sessions in the Test, and try to get more than 200 to feel they had put the game out of Australia’s reach.
In the process they’d have likely burned through enough overs that Australia would have to bat for less than a day to save the game and set up the SCG Test as the series decider.
Which Australian batsmen, then, are capable of occupying the crease for more than 200 balls as Kohli and Pujara did?
Usman Khawaja is the only Aussie to pass that 200 ball mark since Smith and Warner were banned over the ball-tampering scandal in March.
(AAP Image/David Moir)
Khawaja has achieved that twice in this period. First he batted for 302 balls during his match-saving 141 against Pakistan in Dubai in October. Then in his most recent knock Khawaja held together Australia’s second innings at Perth when he made 72 from 213 balls.
Again, Khawaja shapes as the key to Australia batting long enough to force a draw. The Indian pacemen have been highly impressive so far in this series and have plenty of experience bowling on slow surfaces with variable bounce.
So, too, does Jadeja, the world-class spinner who India desperately missed at Perth.
But if Australia can keep India in the field the tourists could start to rue their lack of a fifth bowling option.
Australian all-rounder Mitch Marsh bowled 26 overs in India’s first innings here. He may have gone wicketless but Marsh bowled some nice spells to finish as Australia’s most economical bowler, giving up just 1.96 runs per over.
India, meanwhile, have only part-time spinner Hanuma Vihari as a bowling option beyond their four frontliners.
On a pitch which has neutered Nathan Lyon – arguably the world’s premier Test spinner – Vihari will be vulnerable.
If Australia attack him strategically it will place a heavy burden on Ishant, Bumrah, Jadeja and Mohammad Shami to potentially wheel down a mountain of overs in the next three days.
India will keenly want to avoid that quartet being bowled into the ground given the ultra-short, three-day gap between this match and the final Test in Sydney.
The longer Australia bat in their first innings the more Kohli will have to start thinking about protecting his valuable pace resources ahead of the fourth Test.
They may not be able to win the Test but this is the pressure Australia can apply to India if they are able to graft with the bat.