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Super Rugby: The super stats Round 7 preview and Round 6 wrap

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Roar Rookie
27th March, 2019
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What an interesting round! The Blues got their second win of the season with a result over the Highlanders. The Waratahs snapped the Crusaders 19 game winning streak and the Chiefs finally notched a win by hammering the Bulls in South Africa.

It wasn’t too bad for the algorithm. The Blues result just got away from us at the end, at 76 minutes it was almost bang on. We can have no complaints about the Waratahs and Reds however, kudos to them on some great results.

Round 6 debrief

Super Rugby Round 6 Predicted vs Actual
Season accuracy: 26 correct from 40: 65% Season margin error: 13.23
Weekend accuracy: 4 correct from 7: 57.1% Weekend margin error: 13.71
Teams Actual score Predicted score Correct Margin error
Blues 33 24 No 9
Highlanders 26 26
Hurricanes 34 37 Yes 9
Stormers 28 22
Sharks 28 24 Yes 5
Rebels 14 25
Sunwolves 24 38 Yes 3
Lions 37 54
Bulls 20 39 Yes 33
Chiefs 56 42
Waratahs 20 27 No 13
Crusaders 12 32
Reds 36 18 No 24
Brumbies 14 20

Blues vs Highlanders
The Blues snapped a 20-game winless run against New Zealand opposition on the weekend, winning 33-26 in Auckland. Rieko Ioane scored a brace and the Blues racked up 4 tries in total. Could their luck be turning around?

Hurricanes vs Stormers
The Stormers came into the game with a 3-1 win-loss record, so this was always going to be a difficult task for the ‘Canes. However, the Hurricanes also only have 1 loss so far this season but it might be fair to say their performances haven’t been the best.

They left it late again, grabbing a try in the 70th minute to take the lead and the win.

Waratahs vs Crusaders
The Waratahs showed their true class last weekend outperforming a strong Crusaders side in Sydney. Israel Folau did what he does best and dotted down for a try, taking the score out to 20-7 with the Crusaders grabbing a further 5 consolation points in the 80th minute.

Sunwolves vs Lions
The Lions are back to the top of the South African conference after a bumpy start. The Sunwolves, having found out they are getting ditched from Super Rugby in 2020, would have wanted to grab the win to prove their place. And against last year’s finalists it would have been quite a win but sadly, it wasn’t to be.

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Bulls vs Chiefs
Let’s all admit – most of us thought the Bulls would trounce the Chiefs. After all, the Chiefs were yet to record a win going into the game and the Bulls went into the game with a + 63 points difference (the best in the competition). However, it wasn’t the case with the Chiefs attacking relentlessly, confidently ahead at nearly all points of the match.

Sharks vs Rebels
This was always going to be an interesting game with both teams scoring well in the opening rounds of the competition. However, away from home is always difficult. The Rebels ran them close however, trailing at the break by just 2 points. After the break it was all one way traffic with the Sharks scoring two tries taking the score out to 28-14 come the final whistle.

Reds vs Brumbies
Make that three wins in a row for the Reds at home against the Brumbies. The Reds also picked up two wins on the bounce, a much needed burst of confidence for the players (and the fans!). The Brumbies who have usually been a strong outfit are now two and four and will be looking to improve on those numbers fast.

Round 7 matches and predictions

Here are the algorithms predictions for the seventh round of Super Rugby.

Super Rugby Round 7
Season accuracy: 26 correct from 40: 65% Season margin error: 13.23
Teams Prediction Chance of winning Prediction
Hurricanes 27 58.8% Hurricanes to win by 4
Crusaders 23 39.9%
Waratahs 49 68.4% Waratahs to win by 17
Sunwolves 32 31.6%
Jaguares 27 30.5% Chiefs to win by 5
Chiefs 32 66.4%
Reds 34 67.7% Reds to win by 4
Rebels 30 29.9%
Sharks 24 72.7% Sharks to win by 7
Bulls 17 25.9%
Sharks 34 77.1per cent Sharks to win by 9
Bulls 17 25.9%
Blues 24 54.4% Blues to win by 2
Stormers 22 44.3%

Hurricanes vs Crusaders
The battle for top spot – not only in the New Zealand conference – but also overall. These two teams have had some great matches in the past and this should be no different.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Hurricanes 10 5 5 0 217 230 50% 21.7
Crusaders 10 5 5 0 230 217 50% 23
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Date Home Score Score Away
2/23/2019 Crusaders 38 22 Hurricanes
7/28/2018 Crusaders 30 12 Hurricanes
5/25/2018 Crusaders 24 13 Hurricanes
3/10/2018 Hurricanes 29 19 Crusaders
7/15/2017 Hurricanes 31 22 Crusaders
5/13/2017 Crusaders 20 12 Hurricanes
7/16/2016 Crusaders 10 35 Hurricanes
5/29/2015 Crusaders 35 18 Hurricanes
5/2/2015 Hurricanes 29 23 Crusaders
6/28/2014 Hurricanes 16 9 Crusaders

Five apiece. Perfect. The Crusaders will be looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season where the Hurricanes will be looking to improve on their starts. Who will fortune favour?

The algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by four, due to their home advantage.

Waratahs vs Sunwolves
The Waratahs inflicted the Crusaders first loss in 2019 and snapped their 19-game win streak and will be hoping to get another game into the win column in this match against the Sunwolves.

The history against these sides (below) would certainly suggest the Sydney based team can do just that.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Waratahs 4 4 0 0 215 96 100% 53.75
Sunwolves 4 0 4 0 96 215 0% 24
Date Home Score Score Away
2/23/2019 Sunwolves 30 31 Waratahs
7/7/2018 Waratahs 77 25 Sunwolves
4/7/2018 Sunwolves 29 50 Waratahs
7/2/2016 Sunwolves 12 57 Waratahs

The algorithm has the ‘Tahs to win by 17 points but, all due respect to the Sunwolves, this could end up being much more.

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Blues vs Stormers
The Blues won their second game of the season last time out and will be looking to continue that against a Stormers outfit who just missed out against the Hurricanes.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Blues 10 3 7 0 191 254 30% 19.1
Stormers 10 7 3 0 254 191 70% 25.4
Date Home Score Score Away
3/17/2018 Stormers 37 20 Blues
5/19/2017 Stormers 30 22 Blues
2/21/2015 Stormers 27 16 Blues
5/3/2013 Blues 18 17 Stormers
3/16/2012 Stormers 27 17 Blues
5/20/2011 Blues 26 28 Stormers
4/10/2010 Blues 21 33 Stormers
2/28/2009 Stormers 8 14 Blues
3/22/2008 Blues 17 14 Stormers
4/21/2007 Stormers 33 20 Blues

Advantage to the Stormers it would seem, but this probably no surprise to anyone. However, the algorithm has the Blues to win by two! It really doesn’t make writing these articles easy.

A tight one clearly, but is this a bridge too far for the Blues? They did win their last game out.

Reds vs Rebels
This could be a good match up with the Reds on the rise slowly and the Rebels taken a confidence knock after losing last weekend.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Reds 10 5 5 0 293 270 50% 29.3
Rebels 10 5 5 0 270 293 50% 27
Date Home Score Score Away
7/6/2018 Reds 37 23 Rebels
2/23/2018 Rebels 45 19 Reds
5/13/2017 Rebels 24 29 Reds
7/15/2016 Reds 28 31 Rebels
3/12/2016 Rebels 25 23 Reds
5/15/2015 Reds 46 29 Rebels
4/3/2015 Rebels 23 15 Reds
6/27/2014 Rebels 20 36 Reds
5/17/2014 Reds 27 30 Rebels
6/1/2013 Reds 33 20 Rebels
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Another five and five job. Excellent. The algorithm has the Reds to win by 4. Like the Blues, the Reds won at home in the last round however have not been hitting the performances expected at the moment. This should be a real test against a strong Rebels outfit.

Sharks vs Bulls
The Bulls had a shock loss to the Chiefs last round at home and are now travelling to second positioned Sharks in the South African conference. The Sharks lost two games in a row before snapping that unwanted streak against the Rebels last weekend.

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Sharks 10 1 8 1 204 281 10% 20.4
Bulls 10 8 1 1 281 204 80% 28.1
Date Home Score Score Away
3/9/2019 Bulls 37 14 Sharks
5/12/2018 Bulls 39 33 Sharks
4/14/2018 Sharks 10 40 Bulls
6/30/2017 Sharks 17 30 Bulls
3/18/2016 Bulls 16 16 Sharks
4/18/2015 Sharks 10 17 Bulls
2/28/2015 Bulls 43 35 Sharks
3/22/2014 Bulls 23 19 Sharks
2/15/2014 Sharks 31 16 Bulls
7/6/2013 Bulls 20 19 Sharks

Pretty heavily in favour of the Bulls, but at home, and taking into account current form, the algorithm has the Sharks to win by 7. Anyone angry about this? Be sure and let us know below. There’s always one or two out there.

Jaguares vs Chiefs
The Chiefs are up and running and with all due respect to the Jaguares, this is a type of game the Chiefs need. They won big last round and this is a game they would have targeted when the draw came out. Can they do it?

P W L D F A Win per cent Avg Pts
Jaguares 2 1 1 0 49 49 50% 24.5
Chiefs 2 1 1 0 49 49 50% 24.5
Date Home Score Score Away
5/4/2018 Chiefs 19 23 Jaguares
3/19/2016 Jaguares 26 30 Chiefs
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Although the Jaguares are at home, the Algorithm has the Chiefs to win by 5. The Chiefs have won by a large margin last round however it is their only win so far, can they repeat last weekend and grab another win?

Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.