What an interesting round! The Blues got their second win of the season with a result over the Highlanders. The Waratahs snapped the Crusaders 19 game winning streak and the Chiefs finally notched a win by hammering the Bulls in South Africa.
It wasn’t too bad for the algorithm. The Blues result just got away from us at the end, at 76 minutes it was almost bang on. We can have no complaints about the Waratahs and Reds however, kudos to them on some great results.
| Super Rugby Round 6 Predicted vs Actual | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season accuracy: 26 correct from 40: 65% | Season margin error: 13.23 | |||
| Weekend accuracy: 4 correct from 7: 57.1% | Weekend margin error: 13.71 | |||
| Teams | Actual score | Predicted score | Correct | Margin error |
| Blues | 33 | 24 | No | 9 |
| Highlanders | 26 | 26 | ||
| Hurricanes | 34 | 37 | Yes | 9 |
| Stormers | 28 | 22 | ||
| Sharks | 28 | 24 | Yes | 5 |
| Rebels | 14 | 25 | ||
| Sunwolves | 24 | 38 | Yes | 3 |
| Lions | 37 | 54 | ||
| Bulls | 20 | 39 | Yes | 33 |
| Chiefs | 56 | 42 | ||
| Waratahs | 20 | 27 | No | 13 |
| Crusaders | 12 | 32 | ||
| Reds | 36 | 18 | No | 24 |
| Brumbies | 14 | 20 | ||
Blues vs Highlanders
The Blues snapped a 20-game winless run against New Zealand opposition on the weekend, winning 33-26 in Auckland. Rieko Ioane scored a brace and the Blues racked up 4 tries in total. Could their luck be turning around?
Hurricanes vs Stormers
The Stormers came into the game with a 3-1 win-loss record, so this was always going to be a difficult task for the ‘Canes. However, the Hurricanes also only have 1 loss so far this season but it might be fair to say their performances haven’t been the best.
They left it late again, grabbing a try in the 70th minute to take the lead and the win.
Waratahs vs Crusaders
The Waratahs showed their true class last weekend outperforming a strong Crusaders side in Sydney. Israel Folau did what he does best and dotted down for a try, taking the score out to 20-7 with the Crusaders grabbing a further 5 consolation points in the 80th minute.
Sunwolves vs Lions
The Lions are back to the top of the South African conference after a bumpy start. The Sunwolves, having found out they are getting ditched from Super Rugby in 2020, would have wanted to grab the win to prove their place. And against last year’s finalists it would have been quite a win but sadly, it wasn’t to be.
Bulls vs Chiefs
Let’s all admit – most of us thought the Bulls would trounce the Chiefs. After all, the Chiefs were yet to record a win going into the game and the Bulls went into the game with a + 63 points difference (the best in the competition). However, it wasn’t the case with the Chiefs attacking relentlessly, confidently ahead at nearly all points of the match.
Sharks vs Rebels
This was always going to be an interesting game with both teams scoring well in the opening rounds of the competition. However, away from home is always difficult. The Rebels ran them close however, trailing at the break by just 2 points. After the break it was all one way traffic with the Sharks scoring two tries taking the score out to 28-14 come the final whistle.
Reds vs Brumbies
Make that three wins in a row for the Reds at home against the Brumbies. The Reds also picked up two wins on the bounce, a much needed burst of confidence for the players (and the fans!). The Brumbies who have usually been a strong outfit are now two and four and will be looking to improve on those numbers fast.
Here are the algorithms predictions for the seventh round of Super Rugby.
| Super Rugby Round 7 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season accuracy: 26 correct from 40: 65% | Season margin error: 13.23 | |||
| Teams | Prediction | Chance of winning | Prediction | |
| Hurricanes | 27 | 58.8% | Hurricanes to win by 4 | |
| Crusaders | 23 | 39.9% | ||
| Waratahs | 49 | 68.4% | Waratahs to win by 17 | |
| Sunwolves | 32 | 31.6% | ||
| Jaguares | 27 | 30.5% | Chiefs to win by 5 | |
| Chiefs | 32 | 66.4% | ||
| Reds | 34 | 67.7% | Reds to win by 4 | |
| Rebels | 30 | 29.9% | ||
| Sharks | 24 | 72.7% | Sharks to win by 7 | |
| Bulls | 17 | 25.9% | ||
| Sharks | 34 | 77.1per cent | Sharks to win by 9 | |
| Bulls | 17 | 25.9% | ||
| Blues | 24 | 54.4% | Blues to win by 2 | |
| Stormers | 22 | 44.3% | ||
Hurricanes vs Crusaders
The battle for top spot – not only in the New Zealand conference – but also overall. These two teams have had some great matches in the past and this should be no different.
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win per cent | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 217 | 230 | 50% | 21.7 |
| Crusaders | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 230 | 217 | 50% | 23 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/23/2019 | Crusaders | 38 | 22 | Hurricanes |
| 7/28/2018 | Crusaders | 30 | 12 | Hurricanes |
| 5/25/2018 | Crusaders | 24 | 13 | Hurricanes |
| 3/10/2018 | Hurricanes | 29 | 19 | Crusaders |
| 7/15/2017 | Hurricanes | 31 | 22 | Crusaders |
| 5/13/2017 | Crusaders | 20 | 12 | Hurricanes |
| 7/16/2016 | Crusaders | 10 | 35 | Hurricanes |
| 5/29/2015 | Crusaders | 35 | 18 | Hurricanes |
| 5/2/2015 | Hurricanes | 29 | 23 | Crusaders |
| 6/28/2014 | Hurricanes | 16 | 9 | Crusaders |
Five apiece. Perfect. The Crusaders will be looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season where the Hurricanes will be looking to improve on their starts. Who will fortune favour?
The algorithm has the Hurricanes to win by four, due to their home advantage.
Waratahs vs Sunwolves
The Waratahs inflicted the Crusaders first loss in 2019 and snapped their 19-game win streak and will be hoping to get another game into the win column in this match against the Sunwolves.
The history against these sides (below) would certainly suggest the Sydney based team can do just that.
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win per cent | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waratahs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 96 | 100% | 53.75 |
| Sunwolves | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 96 | 215 | 0% | 24 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/23/2019 | Sunwolves | 30 | 31 | Waratahs |
| 7/7/2018 | Waratahs | 77 | 25 | Sunwolves |
| 4/7/2018 | Sunwolves | 29 | 50 | Waratahs |
| 7/2/2016 | Sunwolves | 12 | 57 | Waratahs |
The algorithm has the ‘Tahs to win by 17 points but, all due respect to the Sunwolves, this could end up being much more.
Blues vs Stormers
The Blues won their second game of the season last time out and will be looking to continue that against a Stormers outfit who just missed out against the Hurricanes.
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win per cent | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blues | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 191 | 254 | 30% | 19.1 |
| Stormers | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 254 | 191 | 70% | 25.4 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/17/2018 | Stormers | 37 | 20 | Blues |
| 5/19/2017 | Stormers | 30 | 22 | Blues |
| 2/21/2015 | Stormers | 27 | 16 | Blues |
| 5/3/2013 | Blues | 18 | 17 | Stormers |
| 3/16/2012 | Stormers | 27 | 17 | Blues |
| 5/20/2011 | Blues | 26 | 28 | Stormers |
| 4/10/2010 | Blues | 21 | 33 | Stormers |
| 2/28/2009 | Stormers | 8 | 14 | Blues |
| 3/22/2008 | Blues | 17 | 14 | Stormers |
| 4/21/2007 | Stormers | 33 | 20 | Blues |
Advantage to the Stormers it would seem, but this probably no surprise to anyone. However, the algorithm has the Blues to win by two! It really doesn’t make writing these articles easy.
A tight one clearly, but is this a bridge too far for the Blues? They did win their last game out.
Reds vs Rebels
This could be a good match up with the Reds on the rise slowly and the Rebels taken a confidence knock after losing last weekend.
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win per cent | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 293 | 270 | 50% | 29.3 |
| Rebels | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 270 | 293 | 50% | 27 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/6/2018 | Reds | 37 | 23 | Rebels |
| 2/23/2018 | Rebels | 45 | 19 | Reds |
| 5/13/2017 | Rebels | 24 | 29 | Reds |
| 7/15/2016 | Reds | 28 | 31 | Rebels |
| 3/12/2016 | Rebels | 25 | 23 | Reds |
| 5/15/2015 | Reds | 46 | 29 | Rebels |
| 4/3/2015 | Rebels | 23 | 15 | Reds |
| 6/27/2014 | Rebels | 20 | 36 | Reds |
| 5/17/2014 | Reds | 27 | 30 | Rebels |
| 6/1/2013 | Reds | 33 | 20 | Rebels |
Another five and five job. Excellent. The algorithm has the Reds to win by 4. Like the Blues, the Reds won at home in the last round however have not been hitting the performances expected at the moment. This should be a real test against a strong Rebels outfit.
Sharks vs Bulls
The Bulls had a shock loss to the Chiefs last round at home and are now travelling to second positioned Sharks in the South African conference. The Sharks lost two games in a row before snapping that unwanted streak against the Rebels last weekend.
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win per cent | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 204 | 281 | 10% | 20.4 |
| Bulls | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 281 | 204 | 80% | 28.1 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/9/2019 | Bulls | 37 | 14 | Sharks |
| 5/12/2018 | Bulls | 39 | 33 | Sharks |
| 4/14/2018 | Sharks | 10 | 40 | Bulls |
| 6/30/2017 | Sharks | 17 | 30 | Bulls |
| 3/18/2016 | Bulls | 16 | 16 | Sharks |
| 4/18/2015 | Sharks | 10 | 17 | Bulls |
| 2/28/2015 | Bulls | 43 | 35 | Sharks |
| 3/22/2014 | Bulls | 23 | 19 | Sharks |
| 2/15/2014 | Sharks | 31 | 16 | Bulls |
| 7/6/2013 | Bulls | 20 | 19 | Sharks |
Pretty heavily in favour of the Bulls, but at home, and taking into account current form, the algorithm has the Sharks to win by 7. Anyone angry about this? Be sure and let us know below. There’s always one or two out there.
Jaguares vs Chiefs
The Chiefs are up and running and with all due respect to the Jaguares, this is a type of game the Chiefs need. They won big last round and this is a game they would have targeted when the draw came out. Can they do it?
| P | W | L | D | F | A | Win per cent | Avg Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 50% | 24.5 |
| Chiefs | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 50% | 24.5 |
| Date | Home | Score | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/4/2018 | Chiefs | 19 | 23 | Jaguares |
| 3/19/2016 | Jaguares | 26 | 30 | Chiefs |
Although the Jaguares are at home, the Algorithm has the Chiefs to win by 5. The Chiefs have won by a large margin last round however it is their only win so far, can they repeat last weekend and grab another win?
Don’t forget you can also visit Rugby4cast to see more stats, predictions for other competitions and a whole load of other nonsense.
Chiefs coach Clayton McMillan says it’s “purely coincidental” that Semipeni Finau has put on a massive, late hit on a fourth fly-half in nine…
All was made right on the second attempt!
After taking a 12-nil lead early, the Waratahs couldn't hold on as the Kiwi opponents came storming back in the second half for a…
The forward absolutely flattened Tane Edmed just weeks after he did a similar hit on Queensland's Tom Lynagh - and Chiefs Assistant Coach David…
The Waratahs’ finals hopes are dangling by a thread after suffering their seventh loss of the year, as they went down to a strong…
The men in blue were trying not to let their opponents get away with niggling tactics.
