Australia are going to win the first Test match.

Having not lost at the Gabba since 1988, and against an opposition that will have not won a Test since November 2018, the opening game of the summer should be a good opportunity for players to find their rhythm ahead of a busy schedule.

With a 14-man squad announced ahead of next Thursday’s first game against Pakistan, it’s time to break things down and see whether each player deserves to be in the squad, and how they’ll go.

David Warner
Should he be in the squad?
Warner wasn’t going to miss the squad, regardless of his form. The fact he has a Shield century and excellent T20I form in the last two months only further solidified his hold on the spot.

With a home average of 59.64, an average of 66.11 against Pakistan in five Tests and a redemption tale to play for, Warner’s spot was never in danger.

How does he go?
Warner scores runs. A century in the opening Test of the summer and everything will be forgiven. Whether he should have ever returned is a separate issue, but the 33-year-old only needs a decent performance in front of the home masses to justify his selection.

Expect a decent start in the first innings before an unbeaten century, where Australia probably could’ve declared earlier but chose to let Warner score some runs, to occur. An unbeaten score in a successful run chase would eventuate if the cards fall that way at the coin toss.

Joe Burns
Should he be in the squad?
Process of elimination says he should, given his absence from The Ashes squad was mindboggling, but Burns be an automatic selection is less convincing than before the 2019-20 domestic season commenced.

He has averaged 40.4 in three Shield outings, while his performance for Australia A was as disappointing as the rest of the batsmen. Burns, however, seems to be the natural fit.

How does he go?
Burns will play in the first Test, and he’ll perform better than any other Australian opener has over the past six months. Playing at the Gabba is sure to help, Burns will get a couple of decent starts in the 30s but he could struggle with the early exuberance of the Pakistan pace attack.

As they tire this series, Burns will pile on the runs.

I was saying Booo-Urns. (AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Cameron Bancroft
Should he be in the squad?
Clearly the most controversial selection, face value would suggest Bancroft can count himself lucky. Mitch Marsh is injured and Will Pucovski ruled himself out of contention, which left an opportunity for Australia A’s best batsman against Pakistan.

Bancroft failed in his limited Ashes opportunities, but honestly, I see no issue with his inclusion. The 26-year-old is a strong-willed player who is a valuable presence around the squad.

The fact he has batted well in the middle order against Pakistan and in the last two List A matches for Western Australia gives him a chance at a middle order berth.

How does he go?
Bancroft is probably the backup middle-order batsman and preferred sub fielder in this team. Regardless of whether he gets the opportunity or not, Bancroft will be involved in a dismissal during the first Test.

Marnus Labuschagne
Should he be in the squad?
Labuschagne has cemented his spot in this team for years to come, quickly becoming a key part of the top order. Excluding a duck in his most recent outing, Labuschagne has been excellent for Queensland since returning and will look forward to his first home summer as a regular.

How does he go?
A lot has been spoken about Labuschagne’s successful technique change, and the 25-year-old won’t mind the added attention.

He loves playing at the Gabba and will be busy throughout the game, but we shouldn’t expect anything outstanding. Expect Australia’s number three to score around 80 runs for the entire match and be the first player to dismiss Babar Azam this summer.

Steve Smith
Should he be in the squad?
Obviously.

How does he go?
Smith only averages a paltry 71.88 at the Gabba in Test matches, well below his career Australian average of 77.25.

Last time Smith played against Pakistan at this venue, he scored 130 and 63. In terms of a prediction of his output, that seems pretty spot on.

The Australian superstar was dismissed four times in the last series he played against Pakistan, falling to Yasir Shah on three occasions. The veteran leg-spinner is in the squad again and will look to continue making Smith is genuine bunny.

Travis Head
Should he be in the squad?
Head’s generally a pretty safe bet to be in the Australian Test squad, although his 109 against a decent NSW bowling attack certainly didn’t harm his chances.

His last three Test scores in Australia are 84, 161 and 59* and if Pakistan struggles to find its rhythm early, Head could set up his entire summer here.

How does he go?
The captain of South Australia will get the nod in the first Test and may only get one opportunity to bat, depending on how this match plays out. Lucky for him, Head should be able to make the most out of his limited opportunity, approaching three figures in the first innings and silencing his doubters.

Travis Head played an important hand in the second Ashes Test at Lord’s. (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP)

Matt Wade
Should he be in the squad?
The veteran’s resurgence in The Ashes ended up being quite remarkable when you think about the oblivion he had seemingly found himself in.

Having been one of the best performed Australians, Wade is locked in to start the Australian summer, and his Shield form over the past two rounds has been extremely encouraging.

There’s still a little doubt over Wade though, and he seems to be a player that is only two poor scores away from being dropped, especially if an all-rounder or young batsman steps up.

How does he go?
Even though there’s nothing to be nervous about, the occasion might get to Wade in his return to the Test team on a home stage. The 31-year-old will get a score below 20 in his first opportunity and if he gets a second chance, he’ll adopt a more aggressive approach.

Tim Paine
Should he be in the squad?
Paine’s the Australian captain and for as long as he holds that title, he stays in the squad. Those who argue for an Alex Carey appearance, look at his First Class output.

How does he go?
Expect a tidy game from Paine, who is prone to making an error or two. No simple or costly missed chance for the skipper, while he should pick up his customary 25-35 runs with the bat.

Pat Cummins
Should he be in the squad?
Australia’s best bowler, Cummins has an outstanding record in Tests – 123 wickets at an average of just 21.45. The 26-year-old is heading on a trajectory that we have waited years to see and is potentially, a generational talent that we will look on as one of Australia’s best ever in a decade.

Cummins is in good form and will look to make another statement to kick off his summer.

How does he go?
In his last Test at the Gabba, Cummins finished with match figures of 10/62. Now, this Pakistan batting line-up will provide more resistance than the hapless Sri Lankan outfit that arrived last summer, but Cummins should once again be a constant threat at the opposition.

Taking five wickets for the match, it’ll be a tidy performance by the world’s best pace bowler.

Josh Hazlewood
Should he be in the squad?
Having won back his spot in the team during The Ashes, Hazlewood has locked himself back in as the ever-reliable, consistent option in the Australian pace attack.

He was super impressive in his four Test in the UK and has taken 10 wickets in his past two Shield games to highlight that he is ready to go against an interesting Pakistan team. Hazlewood was an easy lock in this squad.

How does he go?
There’s no way Hazlewood goes for more than 2.5 runs per over this match, as his rhythm is as good as it has ever been.

Pakistan’s batsmen like to be aggressive, but we can expect to see a more watchful top-order against the early pace and bounce that Hazlewood will provide. He won’t be a huge wicket-taker in this match, but 48-Test veteran will have kept things tight when all is said and done.

Nathan Lyon
Should he be in the squad?
Australia needs to take its spinner in every squad and barring the very odd occasion, he should be playing. Lyon’s form hasn’t been great since the first Test of The Ashes, and if there was any other spin bowler coming through the ranks, the veteran would be worried about his spot.

Alas, there’s no one coming to take his spot at the minute and he will continue to be safe regardless of performance.

How does he go?
Well, the ugly truth is that Nathan Lyon has a terrible record against Pakistan. In seven matches, Lyon has 26 wickets at an average of 50.34, not being able to adapt to conditions against classy players who love spin bowling without huge variation.

The veteran has a good record in Brisbane (33 wickets at 27.70), but as has been previously stated, we need to see him be more willing to bowl slower and with more flight.

Lyon’s current form doesn’t see him as the match-winner, although we may well see him end with figures of 4/100 at some stage and take it as a good sign.

Michael Neser
Should he be in the squad?
Neser should absolutely be in the Test squad and, as previously written, should really be playing in the first Test. He has continued to be one of the top bowlers in the Sheffield Shield, while his performance for Australia A against Pakistan was really impressive.

Missed chances and beating the bat meant that good figures of 2/57 and 2/11 should have been better. There is no better chance than now to blood Neser in the Australian Test team.

How does he go?
The honest truth is that it’s unclear which of the three ways the Australian selectors will go, although the gut suggests a left-armer is in the frame.

Regardless, should Neser make his debut for Australia, he will impress immediately and gain a lot of fans in the process.

A cheeky 30 or 40 with the bat in the lower order will be backed up by consistent bowling in both innings, where he’ll six wickets overall in a successful debut.

Mitch Starc
Should he be in the squad?
The most likely of the three options to actually play in the first Test, Starc’s figures in NSW home games this season get him in the squad alone.

Seemingly happy to play second fiddle at the international level, the 29-year-old’s stock have actually risen in my eyes, given the Australians are more likely to bowl him less and use Starc as a strike option. Providing a point of difference, a 14-man squad without Starc would be silly.

How does he go?
If he plays, Starc is likely to clean up the tail in both innings, and would likely be Australia’s leading wicket-taker for the match. This isn’t to say he’ll be Australia’s best bowler, but an innate definition to hone in on the stumps of the lower order generally gets his numbers up.

If Pakistan is 6 or 7 down and the second new ball is taken, watch out.

James Pattinson
Should he be in the squad?
Having successfully returned to Test cricket without injury in the UK, Pattinson has done nothing to suggest he shouldn’t be in the pace rotation for the Australian summer.

Two uninspiring Shield performances means he was likely the last bowler picked in this squad, but it’s a good reward for the 29-year-old who should feature at some stage.

How does he go?
Pattinson actually has a decent record in limited matches at the Gabba, with 11 wickets at 22 in his two matches. It’s more than likely he will be released from the squad to allow him to play more cricket elsewhere, however should he be the one who gets the nod, Pattinson would likely be the bowler Pakistan target the most.

It would result in him taking wickets at an expense, and Pat Cummins’ chances of taking a 7-8 wickets for the match would increase.