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Opinion

Saturday betting guide: 11 April 2020

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Roar Rookie
9th April, 2020
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After collecting a juicy 8.4-unit profit last Saturday, which saw our two best bets salute, we’re back again on what looks like a challenging but fantastic day of racing.

Randwick

Next best: Untamed $2.60 (Race 1)
Bet: 2.5 units to win
He had a superb last start behind Holyfield, where he continued to find the line over 1400 metres with a substantial gap to third. He will be improved from the first-up affair and will prove extremely hard to beat here rising to 1600 metres. I expect him to be in the box seat behind the likely speed of Postcode and Wheelhouse from the inside draw. With Rawiller in the saddle expect him to get every chance in transit.

Back me: Hilo $6, $2.25 (Race 2)
Bet: 0.5 units to win, one unit to place
His was the run of the race last start, where he was back and wide against the pattern of the day. He steps up in trip from 1200 metres to 1400 metres, where he boasts a narrow second behind Group 1 winner Alabama Express last prepartion. Maps to get a favourable run from the midfield draw and will be peaking here third up.

Best value: See You Soon $9, $3 (Race 4)
Bet: 0.5-unit win, one unit place
She looks the value in the race after a forgive run in the Golden Slipper that saw her slow away before sticking on against the pattern of the day. I would like to see her out to 1400 metres third up, but she gets a three-kilo weight swing on key danger Dame Giselle, who just edged her out (0.1 lengths) two runs back when even at the weights. She needs to improve sharply to turn the tables on Away Game, but is he one run too many?

Best each-way: Fasika $5, $2 (Race 10)
Bet: 0.5 units to win, one units to place
She was forced back and wide against the pattern in the Group 1 Galaxy, which saw her finish off strongly alongside Pierata. I expect her to roll across from the wide draw in a race that lacks speed and take up a forward position. She suited back out to 1200 metres (4:3-1-0) and will be reaching her peak here third up.

Tarquin races

(AAP Image/George Salpigtidis)

Caulfield

Back me: Wild Planet $3.50 (Race 8)
Bet: 1.5 units to win
He was dominant last start, where he saluted as the short-priced favourite, and nothing suggests he can’t go on with the job. He presents here off a one-month layoff, but he’s proven at 1400 metres (8:3-1-2) and has a class edge on the field. He matched motors with Melody Belle to finish within 3.5 lengthes of Streets Of Avalon and Super Seth at Group 1 level prior. The only knock is the inside draw, but he’s tactically versatile, and Dunn can take a forward position in the run. Seabrook the main danger but will be giving him a headstart.

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Back me: Secret Blaze $5, $2 (Race 7)
Bet: one unit to win, one unit to place
He failed to reel in Inverloch last start as the $2 favourite but was forced four deep upon straightening and gave him three kilos at the weights. Now third-up off the back of a freshen up should see him set to turn the tables. He’s now giving only 0.5 kilos to Inverloch, who’s raced twice since they clashed. He just needs to repeat his first-up second behind Fifty Stars to be winning. Scarlett Dream is the class runner and key danger but will need everything in her favour getting back to the rear from the inside draw.

Morphettville

Play of the day: Jacobite Prince $4.20 (Race 4)
Bet: three units to win
He was heavily supported first up ($3.20 into $2.20), where he sat three-wide for the trip and was forced four wide on the turn. He raced in restricted room from the 250 metres before letting down at the 150 and found the line well. He drops right back in class here and will be hard to beat if he can run up to his form around Garner last preparation.

Back me: Bold Star $5
Bet: One unit to win
I want to be with the class runner of the field in a wide-open race. He brings in premier form lines after two superb runs against the bias at Caulfield, which saw him beat all bar Anaheed and finish alongside Bivouac in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate. He steps back to 1000 metres (10:5-0-0) but returns to Morphettville, which will see him given every chance to run over the top in a race that has plenty of early speed.

Doomben

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Best of the rest: Baccarat Baby $3 (Race 8)
Bet: 1.5 units to win
She’s the class runner of the field who boasts a narrow second (0.5 lengths) to Kolding and a fifth to Melody Belle in the Empire Rose. She presents here first-up off the back of a soft trial but is proven fresh (4:2-0-2) and over 1200 metres (5:3-0-2). She meets her key dangers even at the weights, and with luck in running I expect her class to prevail.