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Opinion
The late founder of the American Kenpo system of self-defence, Senior Grand Master Ed Parker, had a saying: you should “fight the taekwondo man in a telephone box”.
What he meant by this was that taekwondo, a martial art that heavily emphasises long-range acrobatic kicks, makes practitioners vulnerable to those who train to fight at close range and exploit the taekwondo weakness.
Since he took the reins at the Super Rugby AU-leading Brumbies, coach Dan McKeller has worked to change the Brumbies from a team that can only maul for tries to one that can play running rugby. With former Brumbies great Christian Lealiifano and young gun Noah Lolesio steering the Brumbies from No. 10, he enjoyed success. These are both players who can unleash the lethal Brumbies outside backs from anywhere on the park with running, passing and kicking.
Unfortunately in the Brumbies first match against the Waratahs in Super Rugby AU Lolesio suffered a hamstring injury that was likely to rule him out for the rest of the season. Lolesio may return this week to play the Reds in Brisbane, but with McKeller citing long-term player welfare as a consideration, it seems likely that the Reds will face current No. 10 Bayley Kuenzle.
Kuenzle has an excellent kicking game from the tee and the hand and, since the Brumbies last played the Reds, has dramatically improved his ability to play flat and create space. The Brumbies attack has become far more varied than it was when they scored two tries from rolling mauls against the Reds.
However, Kuenzle does not possess the elite running game of Lealiifano and Lolesio. Therefore it is apparent that to maximise the Brumbies attack within the limits of Kuenzle’s abilities the Brumbies have returned to kicking for field position then attacking off the lineout.
Of the 20 tries that have been scored since Kuenzle stepped onto the park to replace Lolesio against the Waratahs in Round 3 all but four have resulted in an own-half lineout in preceding phases. The four remaining tries were opportunistic, three against the lowest-ranked team in the competition, the Western Force, and one against the Waratahs.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
The other notable feature of this attack is the short, sharp phases involving the Brumbies big centres, who weigh more combined than the flankers the Reds fielded against the Rebels in their last match. Tightly disciplined cleanouts providing quick ball and dramatically limiting pilfering opportunities, and the Brumbies only send the ball wide when the onslaught has bunched the defence to the extent that scoring is near certain.
The Reds have been outstanding in defence, but if they spend a lot of time defending their own line, it will be hard to survive this well-orchestrated onslaught. Getting big bodies in front of the Brumbies centres in the form of back rowers Harry Wilson and Angus Scott-Young would go some way to stemming the bleed.
Both big loosies need to step up and put in the same sort of defensive performance that Scott-Young did in the last 18 minutes of the Rebels match last week. He made 13 tackles during this time, but what didn’t make the stats is how many of those tackles dominated their opponents and stopped the Rebels forward momentum. His efforts in tight were also critical in preventing the Rebels pick and drive late in the game leading to tries.
However, the only real way that the Reds will beat the Brumbies is if they apply Master Parker’s reasoning and don’t fight them in the compressed “telephone box”, that is the Brumbies half of the park. Rebels coach Dave Wessel worked that out in the Rebels 30-12 defeat of the Brumbies earlier this month when he adopted duel playmakers for the first time in the season and used a smart kicking game to win 65 per cent of the territory and 63 per cent of the possession.
As good a job as the Brumbies playmakers have done this season, they face James O’Connor at No. 10. He is the most experienced and talented player in either team and, irrespective of who starts at No. 10 for the Brumbies, should be able to work with Hamish Stewart and Tate McDermott to achieve what the Rebels did, so the Reds can unleash their own lethal attack.
The Reds need to adopt an attacking mindset to beat the competition leading team in this game. For James O’Connor it is a test of whether it is still true that the ‘ice runs in his veins’, whether he still has the poise to make winning plays in the biggest matches.
It is a test that will be keenly watched by all.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.