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Any way you look at it, the Penrith Panthers are streaks ahead of the pack and only bad luck can stop them from claiming their first title since 2003.
This is a bizarre season.
While our beloved leader Peter V’landys has managed to keep the NRL rolling unbelievably well through his sheer force of will, COVID-19 has still wreaked havoc.
To keep the competition rolling:
• Two sides have had to relocate – and bless you Storm and Warriors for doing that, every one of us appreciates it so much (PS Cam Smith, this does not mean that we like you)
• All the sides have had to go into ‘bubbles’ to remain COVID free
• The crowds have been limited, if not disproportionately noisy
• The draw was redone and redistributed most of the free to air games back to the usual suspects
• We’ve gone back to one referee – and no one really seems to mind
In spite of all of this there is little talk of this season’s eventual champion having an asterisk placed next to them, signifying that lifting the Provan-Summons Trophy was somehow devalued in 2020.
It is the opposite.
The team that wins this year will have faced down greater adversity than usual to do so. With all the upheaval going on, any side that can keep going with consistently good results is doing an amazing job.
Only one team this year can be said to really have achieved that end: the Panthers.
Yes – guilty – I am an unabashed Ivan Cleary fan and have been for some time. Whether it was in his first iteration with the Panthers or his stint with the Wests Tigers, I really love the cut of his jib.
After their tenth place finish in 2019 a lot of people were openly questioning Cleary’s credentials. But they shouldn’t have been. In his first season back at Penrith his team had seemingly underachieved.
However, it wasn’t yet Ivan’s team.
Between September 2019 and March 2020, Cleary made changes that have meant that all those in his squad wanted to be on his ‘bus’. Like the Storm players do with Craig Bellamy, the Roosters squad with Trent Robinson and the Raiders boys with Ricky Stuart, all the Panther players have fallen completely into line with Ivan’s way.
Since his arrival, Waqa Blake, Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and James Maloney have departed. While Cleary made a number of great pick-ups in Zane Tetevano, Api Koroisau and Kurt Capewell, what he has really done is made the team perform as a very well drilled, focused and disciplined unit.
Last weekend they despatched the Wests Tigers 30-6. However, the Campbelltown team did not capitulate – they fought hard. Penrith were just far too good.
In attack – where they are the second-best in the NRL, averaging 26 points a game – and in defence, where they are also the second-best, letting in an average of just 13 points a game.
Against the Tigers, they were without Villiame Kikau and Api Koroisau and their machine rolled on mercilessly.
There are stars all across the field.
Dylan Edwards is playing his best ever football at the back. The wings have evergreen Josh Mansour back in top form, with the likes of Charlie Staines, Brian To’o and Brent Naden also executing superbly.
Young Stephen Crichton in the centres is an absolute revelation in attack but also solid as anything in defence. A future representative player for sure.
The combination of Nathan Cleary and Jerome Luai has a combined 29 try assists and 30 line break assists between them – easily the most dangerous halves partnership in the NRL.
(Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Then there is the pack. We already knew James Fisher-Harris was a machine. And Isaah Yeo is no longer seen as a squad player by anyone. His attack and defence has been stellar. More and more his ball playing is proving deadly.
Kikau is a monster in attack and James Tamou has wound back the clock to put in his best games since 2015. Koroisau has proven an astute buy too, giving superb direction around the ruck.
And where exactly did Liam Martin come from? He is proving a massive handful for all opponents.
The Panthers will win the minor premiership in a canter. Already three points clear, they now meet the Broncos, Eels, Cowboys and Bulldogs.
The Brisbane and North Queensland games will be the first time apart from their Round 14 game against the Warriors that the Panthers will leave Sydney.
Unlike the Warriors, Raiders and Storm (along with the Queensland teams) who have had to endure masses of travel, Penrith have not had to endure such disruptions.
But they are far from flat-track bullies. Of their 16 games this season, eight of them have been against other top-eight sides. They have a record of six wins, one draw and the single 16-10 loss to the Eels in Round 5. Their average score against those opponents is 26-15, only slightly worse in defence from their overall for and against.
They are currently on a run of 11 straight wins. Should they complete the season undefeated it will see them with 18 straight wins, just behind the 19 straight of the legendary 1975 Eastern Suburbs Roosters.
However, you can bet the coach will be smacking down any such talk. He knows just how quickly things can change.
But who can possibly beat them? There are really only five options, as the Knights and Sharks just don’t have enough.
Obviously Melbourne are a great chance. In second spot, they keep replacing their injured players with players who are up for the task. However, the injuries keep coming.
Already without Kenny Bromwich, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Brandon Smith, Suliasi Vunivalu, Dale Finucane, Tui Kamikamica and Paul Momirovski, they’ve now lost Marion Seve for the season. And they are based on the Sunshine Coast. But if any side can overcome those issues it is the Storm.
Parramatta have enjoyed a similar lack of travel to their wester Sydney neighbours and are the only top-eight side to have beaten Penrith this year. However, their recent form – especially the flogging at the hands of the Rabbitohs – sees them unlikely to challenge.
The Roosters have had injuries coming out their ears. Boyd Cordner, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Luke Keary have had – or are having – stints on the sidelines. The loss of Sam Verrills and Victor Radley have been extremely costly. However, they will surely be a side that will take it right up to the Chocolate Soldiers, given the chance.
The Raiders’ attack just hasn’t clicked into gear and while their defence has been pretty good, they’ve had some poor patches – such as their first half against the Panthers. While they could give Penrith some issues, without talisman hooker Josh Hodgson it is hard to see that happening.
Souths losing Latrell Mitchell will really hurt what was looking like a really good charge to the finals. Without his x-factor they may not have the firepower required.
So really when you look at it, the 2020 NRL premiership is the Penrith Panthers’ for the taking and only serious misfortune will stop that coming true.