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Opinion
There was a fair chunk of despair after Australia’s capitulation to India in the Boxing Day Test at the MCG, and among the more depressing articles was the assertion that maybe Australia just weren’t as good as India.
At 1-1 in a four-Test series, this was possibly premature pessimism, but it did get me thinking. With Dave Warner out with injury and Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne showing us that they are fallible after all, the rest of the top six aren’t really capable of taking up the slack.
The following tables prove it. They look at the averages of Smith and Labuschagne in the 2019 Ashes compared to the rest of the top six.
We then add Dave Warner to Smith and Labuschagne for the 2019-20 home summer and compare again. The results suggest that we have a batting order problem.
| Ashes Test | Smith and Labuschagne average | Rest of top six average | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Edgbaston | 143.0 | 27.5 | Win |
| 2. Lord’s | 75.5 | 14.6 | Draw |
| 3. Headingley | 77.0 | 17.7 | Loss |
| 4. Old Trafford | 92.8 | 12.5 | Win |
| 5. The Oval | 41.3 | 25.6 | Loss |
| Overall | 85.8 | 19.6 | Draw |
| Test | Warner, Smith and Labuschagne average | Rest of top six average | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan (Brisbane) | 114.3 | 60.3 | Win |
| Pakistan (Adelaide) | 266.5 | 42.0 | Win |
| New Zealand (Perth) | 52.3 | 25.3 | Win |
| New Zealand (Melbourne) | 42.2 | 49.0 | Win |
| New Zealand (Sydney) | 98.6 | 22.5 | Win |
| Overall | 114.8 | 39.8 |
Now, I know statistics can be moulded to fit a story, and I also know that it’s logical your best batsman will perform better than your worst batsman. It’s not just that Smith and Labuschagne – and Warner in domestic conditions – have performed better than the rest of the line-up in recent times. That was to be expected. What wasn’t to be expected was the huge chasm between the two groups.
Steve Smith (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
The Oval in particular showed us that if Smith and Labuschagne perform below their best against strong bowling attacks, Australia loses. This is what happened in the second Test at the MCG and what would have happened in Adelaide without from some bowling heroics.
So maybe Australia just aren’t as good as India if Smith and Labuschagne aren’t cracking big scores. Of course they are likely to go to the SCG and both score centuries. The media pack will fade away and everything will be right with the Australian cricket team.
In reality, though, they would be papering over some big cracks in the Australian batting order. Hopefully the selectors have begun to address this.
Joe Burns was in horrible form and had to go. Cameron Green shows the all-round potential we haven’t seen in the Australian team for a long time and will be retained. The whispers are growing louder for Will Pucovski, who should be selected for Sydney – he is a tremendous talent and should be guaranteed an extended run.
Who goes? Probably Travis Head. But I’m not convinced Matt Wade should be there in the long term either. Sheffield Shield averages are not to be trusted this year given they are generally being played on flat tracks, but selectors will be looking at youth, including Ben McDermott and Matt Renshaw. If Renshaw attracted the same opportunities as Joe Burns, he may still be in the Australian set-up.
Australia may go on to win back the Border-Gavaskar Trophy, but if we do, it will likely be on the back of something brilliant from Warner, Labuschagne or Smith. To rival our best batting line-ups over the last 25 years, some major change is required.
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