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Opinion
Ireland goes to Paris this weekend to battle France for northern hemisphere supremacy. If they win, it will be ten Tests in a row, setting up a run at an Ireland record in this tourney.
Yes, the outcome is an early determinant of Grand Slam chances and whether the Six Nations trophy will go to the Continent or the Emerald Isle. But there is also a 2023 theme.
If Irish’s coach duo Andy Farrell and Mike Catt need a best-case World Cup scenario rehearsal, here it is. But Fabien Galthie and Shaun Edwards will relish the same chance.
Numbers three and five, ball control against quick strike, a ten-led team versus an old school team playing off nine, and the most powerful packs in Europe head-to-head.
Both teams scored first round tries with ease, making a lot of metres with ball in hand (Ireland gained over 500), breaking over twenty tackles each), but each have a work-on.
Ireland conceded 19 turnovers. France was penalised 14 times (Ireland: only six times). Edwards’ eager defence lived too close to the offsides line. Ireland went one phase too long.
Johnny Sexton’s absence, via a hamstring in training on Wednesday is significant.
Ireland have replaced him with Munster flyhalf Joey Carbery, with James Ryan taking the captaincy.
“That’s the sport we love, there’s always twists and turns, especially in the Six Nations,” said Farrell. “It’s a long old competition so there’s always going to be things we have to deal with. Johnny is an important member of the group, as a captain he’s integral to how we push forward, but at the same time this is about the group. It is not just about one player, it never has been, never will be.”
What can Ireland learn from a 29-7 win which flattered Wales? They will need to take more of their chances when entering France’s 22. Maybe this will cause switches in the team.
Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose played well, individually. But wouldn’t Robbie Henshaw add a bite in midfield? He is a north-south ball player and may keep Ireland from crabbing. If so, Aki will be an unlucky lad: he made over a hundred metres and passed 15 times.
Also, giving almost twenty turnovers to France will see punishment of more than one try. Henshaw is the best defender in the backline and could work better with Ringrose at 13.
France started slowly against Italy but pulled away in the last quarter to win 37-10.
Coaches love these types of wins, because you can pretend you lost and show video to prove it on Monday: “Here we were too narrow, here we let in a soft try, here we were undisciplined, here we will be punished worse by Ireland if we are that loose, and here we wasted chances.”
Edwards is one of the best defensive coaches in world rugby, along with Scotland’s Steve Tandy and South Africa’s Jacques Nienaber. He will lick his lips at Ireland’s intricate interlocking passing setup. Intercepts and dominant tackles are on offer if timing is right.
Ireland’s playmakers take the ball, at times stationary, at the gain line, and then spray it backward in a myriad of directions, forever moving off the ball, with tiny little pop passes.
Tadgh Furlong can put his flyhalf through a gap. What other team even thinks that way?
Connected at all times, no brick wall runs, plenty of diagonals, and support on the ready. Only when space has appeared outside comes the long pass. On a tenth phase, perhaps.
If France’s speedy and savvy backline or loose forwards snaffle one of those, as Taine Basham did, the stadium in Paris may turn into a loud, dark blue, heaving, pulsating rave.
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There is no home crowd as fickle as the blue fans at Stade de France. They can jeer at their own team as quickly as they whistle and boo the opposition. At this moment the French fans are ebullient and will give the Irish a real taste of a hostile venue. Seven of Ireland’s nine successive wins were in Dublin. This is, as Farrell notes, the “Test of all Tests” so far.
In 2020, the Irish came unstuck in Paris, letting in 35 points. This may provide one more reason for a line-up change. Iain Henderson is fit again and could stiffen the breakdown. But make no mistake: this is Leinster with friends. Most of the team play together already.
Andrew Porter, Rohan Kelleher and the deft Furlong make up a front row that may be the best in Irish history if they continue apace (and if Kelleher can clean up some of his darts).
Johnny Sexton (Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images)
Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier, and Jack Conan will need to go up a notch as a trio to get ascendancy over the French loosies. However fit van der Flier is, he’ll need to be fitter, and Conan will need the match of his career to get over Alldritt.
Melvyn Jaminet may be the player we speak of most, after the match, but he is often not talked up before matches. The French seem to have an embarrassment of riches in talent.
These are the two teams, the only two, who have a realistic chance of a Grand Slam, but one will end that hope for the other. Scotland may protest, but they don’t have the squad.
France and Ireland won’t have to compare their mutual wins over the All Blacks to know who the boss of the North is: this weekend will give one a clear claim to supremacy.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.