South Africa is North Africa? Rugby union is finally in union? How loud does money talk?

Arguments about change in rugby leagues are akin to the modern breakdown. Very little good faith, an oeuvre of hidden skullduggery, shoulder battles and weight shifts, positions of strength momentary, and a constantly shifting focus by the powers that be.

Oh, and the angle of view determines everything. Show me a ruck and I’ll show you a dozen penalties, but only three fouls seen, two televised, and one whistled.

Three things were reported widely this week. Just like a loose forward trio, we must decide which of these stories is the openside thief, which is the tireless and rare big six, and which is the linking number eight. The identification of who is who will take a bit of analysis.

The trio: a world league, a northern South Africa, and money deals. Money slushed in to save Test rugby from rich clubs, and New Zealand from isolation’s balance sheet, and bring even an Eben Etzebeth back home (well, to Durban) and offer a glimpse into the future.

First, talks are mature for a ‘world league’ of two tiers to begin in 2024 which would crown a champion every two years in between World Cups and Lions tours by swallowing June and end-of-year tours.

Sticking points are club fury about widening Test windows, and whether to ring-fence or allow the likes of Italy to be relegated and Georgia promoted. For thirty years, talk of a global calendar has been part of our tired pitter patter. Could it finally be reality? Will the seemingly inexhaustible money of Big Club repel this latest challenge by Test Rugby, backed by private equity partners like CVC and Silver Lake?

Second, South Africa confirmed an open secret that they want to be the sixth nation in the Six Nations in lieu of hapless Italy, winless since 2015 with a negative 134-point differential in 2020 yet protected from relegation.

The Springboks are committed to flying their diasporic squad around the world for 40 days in the Phileas Fogg Championship (also non-specifically known as the Rugby Championship) through 2024. But having been dumped from the generically named Super Rugby by New Zealand after one of the longest rugby marriages in history, SARU has no sentimentality left for its former Tri Nations brothers.

Harry Jones is joined by fellow Roar experts Brett McKay and Geoff Parkes in the debut edition of The Roar Rugby podcast. Click below to play or follow on Spotify.

South Africa was no faithful spouse itself. Leaks of Six Nation flirtation are six years old. The four leading South African unions joined the new and clunkily-named United Rugby Championship (formerly the Pro16), caused in part by hundreds of Saffas plying their trade in Europe and Britain. But ending marriage requires someone to say out loud: “It’s over.”

The Kiwis, deep in negotiations with private equity money to replace South African money, made it real. As an aside, Argentina, the RC stepchild born of South African rugby isolation and need to find a team to play ‘Tests’ against, were thrown to the wolves by New Zealand, too.

The indirect blessing has been Moana Pasifika and the Fijian Drua becoming Super, and finally granting Samoan and Tongan rugby players a pathway.

But some Test rivalries do not need a specific tournament to shine. Bok-All Black Tests in particular are one of the crown jewels of the sport: no matter who wins, the matches are often riveting. A shop window for new fans to peer into and be converted to the sport.

Whether the result triggered a trophy or not has never seemed to matter to the best (Kiwis) and second best (Saffas) teams in history. The Rassie Renaissance has reignited the old rivalry, with matches typically decided at the hooter, with a 2023 World Cup knockout collision beckoning.

As has been noted on these pages, the Wallaby-Bok head-to-head is the closest in rugby. It is only South Africa’s superior record against all other teams that puts them ahead. There is something worth saving about the old Tri Nations relationship, and with the Pumas, too.

Can the Boks keep a foot in the South (using its massive European contingent to compete in the Six Nations, but competing against the All Blacks and Wallabies in the winter) too?

There is opposition to this news of the South African juggernaut, as will be examined below. All the Six Nations, even England, have a bad record against the Boks, even though their sheets are boosted by playing the world champions at the end of the Boks’ season, at home.

The best (the Poms) are only even (11-11) at home; the rest expect the change would take a guaranteed Italian win and replace it with a likely loss most of the time.

This is not to say South Africa would immediately win all the Six Nations titles. But a properly applied Bok team is a different beast, and winning routinely in the Republic is not a given for any of the current teams.

The Italian game allows top teams to test younger players, preserve their aging stars, and score lovely training pitch tries. Five matches against South Africa promises unrelenting physical force that even exceeds current French power (they had to get a Saffa boy to play lock for them, and he is one of their best now) and usually, a loss.

Scratch some of these status quo arguments with a façade of “tradition” (a 21-year tradition of battering a bunny?) and you will find just beneath the surface a fear of loss.

Italy objects, of course, because they are in the most dilapidated house on a street of gleaming mansions with a zoning ordinance (6N veto) that mysteriously protects them from repairing their roof and the holes in the unpainted walls.

“We have good teenagers,” says Italy for two decades. “When they grow up, we’ll look better.”

South Africa brings money. A lot of it. Enough to repave the street, add lights, fun, and greenlight a gastropub.

Italian reaction to the news was swift: “Furious Italy will block move,” proclaimed the Telegraph, quoting Italian rugby leaders to the effect that their veto made it all a ‘fantasy.’
But all that is needed is a buyout. Where is the money going to come from? See below.

Also, there is a fair amount of hypocrisy around the topic of not wanting South Africa to come north. None of the Six Nations teams is shy about wanting South Africans, individually, to come play rugby up north. Braam Steyn is an Italian Saffa. Bernard le Roux and Paul Willemse are ‘French,’ supposedly, but the latter was recruited as a teenager.

Scotland has three Saffa props and a Lion wing who resembles an Afrikaner android. Seven others have been ‘Jock Boks’ recently. All of them represented South Africa at Under 20 level. Ireland had Baby Bok skipper CJ Stander and has Rob Herring in their squad, among other forwards. Wales capped Stellenbosch’s Bradley Roberts last year by virtue of a Welsh nanna. Several English teams in the Premiership have a handful of Saffas, often captains, and Sale Sharks have two handfuls.

More than 200 South Africans have been capped for other countries in history, but almost 70 percent of those debuted in the last 25 years, and 40 percent won their first foreign cap since 2010.

The players left for opportunity. South Africa joining Europe at club and country level is merely an example of a nation rejoining its diaspora to try to keep more in the fold. And the thing is, it just might do two things: bring boys back and pay them more money.

Finally then, the money.

A reworked Silver Lake deal was approved by the boards of NZ Rugby and the NZ Rugby Players’ Association this week at a (higher) $3.5 billion valuation of the brand (“NZR CommercialCo”). A public offering opens later this year for domestic capital, underwritten by the American firm Silver Lake, who will take about half the position originally proposed. A few formalities remain but appear ministerial. It’s a ‘done deal.’ The partnership will bring New Zealand rugby much-needed capital and expand the All Black brand outside rugby.

Speaking of venture capital, CVC Capital Partners, who own a 14.3 percent stake in the Six Nations (it cost them £365 million) made sure the Six Nations leak about South Africa included their blessing, and their preference Italy be relegated to a second-tier European league (Italy, Georgia, Spain, Portugal, Russia, and Germany could form the Other Six Nations).

If this begins to sound like the precursor to World War One, in which complex alliances built more around royal relationships than facts on the ground triggered the bloodiest war till that point, the analogy is well-founded.

Silver Lake and CVC both have an overriding duty to investors, to gore oxen, braai sacred cows, and make rugby bigger than ever. Bigger matches more often, a coherent season, more professional marketing and refereeing, diminished club clout, and a truly global brand with stars the size stars should be: this is their remit.

Rugby is the least professional of the big global sports. Old boys have clung tenaciously to power. Far less popular sports generate much better balance sheets, and create sustainable wealth for their stars.

But Covid has distressed rugby clubs. Yes, there were pre-existing vulnerabilities. Western Province Rugby Union, for example, in the cradle of South African rugby, washed by seas of talent extraordinaire, owner of the second oldest stadium in the world, and despite decades of mismanagement, capable of fielding a Bok-laden pack to turn opponents into pudding, was teetering on the brink of insolvency and forced administration for decades.

Roc Nation offered $6 million to control WPRU but were turned down. They regret it now. Newlands was placed on the market this week, with a sale anticipated by June. Loft apartments around a kitschy park and a few logos may remain on the soil I loved so dear.

Even with a healthy rugby organism, five hundred days without gate receipts can end a club. Now, in England and France, many club owners use rugby as a loss leader or a prestige item for their larger holdings. A portfolio can have a rugby club to ‘house’ losses for tax reasons. But in South Africa as in most places, the pandemic created a wide-open door for private equity who feast from beaten down sellers with big upside long term.

New York City investment lawyer Marco Masotti (53) grew up in Durban and graduated from the University of Natal School of Law. He fell in love with rugby watching the 1976 Test match between the Boks and the All Blacks at Kings Park, with his Italian father.

“I was blessed with a rugby brain but not a rugby body,” Masotti admits. But he is driven.

Masotti is from the same cohort of South Africans who saw injustice begin to fold with change and money and passion; Elon Musk was a peer. We can include Rassie Erasmus as youngster in that change. Right or wrong, and they are often wrong, they fight hard and well.

Masotti is now the controlling partner of the Sharks, as head of the MVM Holdings consortium. A ‘shark’ owns the Sharks. And in short order, the impossible has happened. The biggest fish of all is coming ‘home.’

Etzebeth, one of the hardest and best forwards in the storied Bok history of tough enforcers, had a top five deal at Toulon. He is now a Shark with his best friend Siya Kolisi (represented by super agency Roc Nation, which has invested in the URC) and Bok World Cup winners Bongi Mbonambi, Makazole Mapimpi, Lukhanyo Am, and Thomas du Toit, along with promising prop Ox Nche.

More will follow. Lood de Jager appears to be joining the Stormers, where he can now play European Champions league next season in a good pack.

Bok talisman captain Francois Pienaar is part of a £32 million takeover of Saracens club, ending the ultimate old boy, Sir Nigel Wray’s control. Guess who is part of Pienaar’s consortium? Masotti. Guess who is in all the deals, too? Roc Nation, who is managing the Sharks’ brand now.

So, we have these three big currents flowing into one week. I contend the ‘No 8,’ the link, is the third. The money. The shark, the agent, the capital, and the promise of more. Rich Kiwis, flush Sharks, ex-Wray, Roc and roll, and finally, something to counter French Euros.

The opensider, sneaking his chance to jackal and watching for the ref to blow, is South Africa. But just like Richie McCaw in his prime, the Boks carry a mystique that is palpable.

In your dreams, would you ever choose Italy over South Africa when building a rugby brand? Keep tradition? Come on. There is 50 times the tradition in South Africa playing England at Twickenham or the Poms on the High Veld facing the Boks, than a perpetual 30-point drubbing of Italy by a bored English team wanting to be the best in the world.

The blindside flank of this triad of news is a global calendar in the form of a mid-cycle championship of the world. One could argue the hardest position to fill is No 6 (Bok 7). That’s why Pieter-Steph du Toit is always the biggest loss, Jerome Kaino still isn’t replaced, and all half-measures to fill the position of mobile tall bouncer with good hands just fail.

We will believe this news when we see it.

But what of the arguments against all of this?

First, you can’t stop the money. Capital is fungible and agnostic and hungry and relentless. You pile a billion on a table, stitch together a Hapsburgian set of bedfellows and maniacal competitors (Masotti, Jay-Z, Rassie, NZR, Silver Lake) and tell me Italy’s veto is any more powerful than Caesar’s ghost.

The best book on the subject is still that by The Roar’s own Geoff Parkes, A World in Conflict. In it, Parkes predicts South Africa’s path to align vertically rather than horizontally (page 258), New Zealand’s need for a better partner, the frustration of Argentina, and the reality that it is “English and French club rugby versus anyone and everyone” (page 257) which means shifting alliances were needed to find a pattern more akin to global golf than soccer.

The real fly in the ointment is the old boys’ club and their patrons, the owners who don’t mind losing a million a month. Money can’t solve those magnificent obsessions easily. So, there will be a fight, but once we went pro, we already wrote the ending. We just don’t know how long capital will take to get to Act 3. But it will happen, just as modernity always prevails with erstwhile periods of retrograde remission.

Do you think these sophisticated investors will abide old boys club tactics? They will not. World Rugby have several areas in which they will need to change. The way referees are sacrosanct makes rugby an attractive target for gambling syndicates and organised crime.

If I only have to pay off one man or woman, and not even that much, and not even today, and my profit is in the millions, I am attracted to a complex, ref is king, low accountability sport like rugby.

Capital will also want more marketable stars, better production values, transparent stats, less staid and sober press conferences, and an end to unpalatable ‘B’ sides playing in tests.

Second, South Africa is moving north, because South Africans are already north and there is nothing at club level to the east, nothing west, and south is just penguins on ice.

CVC wants the whole hog at the big braai: clubs and Boks.

SARU would gladly play in both 6N and RC, and just have a North squad and a South squad. There are more professional Saffa rugby players north of the equator than south of it.

Third, the Lions. What happens to the Lions, the ultimate relic of the amateur era? The Lions will tour Australia in 2025. After that, there is no agreement in place. The managing director of the Lions, Ben Calveley, has stated: “There is no long-term commitment to anyone.”

All deals are going to be done on a tour-by-tour basis. New Zealand 2029 is an unwritten deal. A 2033 tour to South Africa is questionable if they are in the Six Nations, but it is not out of the question. This uncertainty does open opportunity for Japan and Argentina (with a partner in the US) if the Lions want to expand their brand.

Fourth, there is no going back. The Lions is not a mystical non-profit. The clubs have tasted blood and want more. Capital cannot be dammed. The river of rapacious greed will flow.

Italy should have beaten Scotland more, or found an earlier way to lead a second European championship. This will hurt. But they have been a taker more than a giver over the years.

South Africa would arrive a giver. The Boks will give every team their toughest physical test. Thus, there will be more drama on the last week. Picture a Grand Slam match in Joburg, with a full house baying for English blood. It’s Lions, Lions, Lions, but more often.

South Africa gives cash. The commercial appeal gap between Cheslin Kolbe tries and a Garbisi punt is wide. The All Blacks may have the best brand in rugby, but the Bok brand ain’t bad.

South Africa’s entire history as a nation and a people and in rugby has been isolated in parts and then spread through the entire world as a talented and lost diaspora, as a few others have been. The URC offers young Saffa players a chance to ‘stay home’ and yet tour markets who can hire them, compete against guys like Duane Vermeulen of Ulster, and share in a revenue market with a higher pay scale. A Six Nation slot would be the coup de grace.

Test rugby needs a robust structure to avert the disaster of becoming soccer or cricket. Bigger matches. Not as much of a gap between grand spectacles.

Capitalists want a return. Real rugby fans want new fans. We all want test rugby to survive.

And South Africa gives more return, brings more fans, and kick starts the engine. The great orphan of rugby will wander no more on the Southern Seas. Be careful what you wish for.