Opinion
We’ve talked before about the haves and the have-nots. Last year’s six finalists – Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Fremantle, Melbourne and North Melbourne – are up to a 25-1 record against the eight teams that failed to make finals last season.
Even the exception proves the rule: last week the Bulldogs played an almost perfect game schematically in the first quarter and were on the shot at 8.1 in the final term but were only just able to hold on against Adelaide’s onslaught to the siren. In fact had Erin Phillips scored from a mark within 35 with a minute to go, even that immaculate performance wouldn’t have been enough.
Last year that same gestalt was 21-1, meaning the six finalists have a 0.958 winning percentage over the last two seasons, which is almost unheard of. It seems reasonable to assume that the top six on the current ladder – which, not coincidentally, are the same as last year – will be the same come mid-March.
But what will determine the champion is probably the record within that sixpack. Monday’s game between Brisbane and Melbourne was only the eighth such contest through seven rounds of footy – far too few for a meaningful analysis. The schedule lays out it in an interesting manner.
Adelaide
The Crows are uniquely 3-0 against their peers, the only one unbeaten among the sextet. They’re also the only one with a loss to a non-finalist, which makes up for that advantage. But Adelaide play all five other contenders in their ten-game season – they are still scheduled to play Collingwood and Fremantle.
(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Fremantle
The Dockers still have home games coming against Adelaide and Melbourne. They are not on Brisbane’s itinerary at the moment. They currently carry a 1-1 record against their peers, with a win over the Pies and a loss to the Roos among their prior games.
North Melbourne
With their win over the Pies Sunday, the Roos are 2-1 against finalists this season, with games at Melbourne and Brisbane to go.
Brisbane
The Lions are at 1-1 this season, including an embarrassing opener in Adelaide before the full effects of their COVID outbreak were evident. After today’s game against Melbourne their only peer group meeting will be a Round 9 hosting of North Melbourne.
Melbourne
They’re currently 5-0 against also-rans and 0-1 against other finalists – Adelaide specifically. Thus they have to finish with Brisbane and North Melbourne at Casey Fields, the Dockers at Fremantle Oval and then with an ‘easy’ match against the thorny Carlton.
Collingwood
They lost their third of three among last year’s finalists on Sunday in Hobart and still have a game in Adelaide to finish their peer group match-ups in Round 9. They avoid Melbourne this year. Still, they figure to slot in at sixth barring an upset against Gold Coast or, more likely, against the Bulldogs.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
If we assume the games against non-finalists are 95.8 per cent likely to be victories, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to imagine Collingwood finishing with a fourth loss and ending in sixth at 6-4. Oddly, all three of the three-loss teams play each other in a round robin in the last three weeks.
Given that either Gold Coast or the Western Bulldogs will earn their fourth loss on Tuesday and that the Bulldogs still have two top-six match-ups to go after that, the only way to forecast Collingwood falling out of the top six by season’s end is to predict the Suns upset the Bulldogs this weekend and the log percentage-boosting wins against the tired St Kilda and Carlton outfits to survive a last-round loss to the Magpies with a finals berth intact.
If Brisbane beat Melbourne on Monday – it’s virtually a toss-up – they’ll more than likely finish with a 9-1 record. Fremantle have only home games to defend against their peers, so 9-1 seems on the cards for them as well. If Adelaide can upset Freo in (touch wood) Western Australia, they would replace the Dockers as the 9-1 team at season’s end. Both the Demons and the Kangaroos have multiple away matches against top-six clubs and thus seem likely to pick up a second loss before the finals; they’ll be left to compete for fourth and fifth.
Given all that, we’re most likely looking at our top seeds being Brisbane and Fremantle, with Adelaide the dark horse candidate to replace the Dockers at the top. One of those three would then have to host Collingwood in the first round, while North and Melbourne will battle for the other preliminary final berth. What happens after that? Let’s see what the injury situation looks like in March.
Well, what about Week 8? With an overall record of 37-9 going into the Brisbane-Melbourne game on Monday, you’re absolutely right to rely on the ELO-Following Football ratings system to forecast your winners for you.
Gold Coast Suns vs Western Bulldogs
Tuesday, 7:10pm AEDT, Metricon Stadium
Last week we said: “Both of these teams are going to be on very short turnarounds, but the Suns will have an extra day and no travel involved. Additionally, the Gold Coast have shown themselves to be a strong fourth-quarter team, which in our minds translates to a strong quick-turnaround team. So even though the Bulldogs are a one-goal favourite in our computer system, we’re going to put our bet on Gold Coast at home to hold off the Bulldogs in the second half”.
With the 85-point debacle against Brisbane last Thursday, the Suns are now two-goal underdogs in this contest, which makes us less likely to go against the grain. Still, being a fan of chaos and wanting to see the Suns challenge Collingwood for a finals position, we’re going to stick with our prediction: Gold Coast will eke it out. Our computer disagrees, for the record.
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints
Wednesday, 5:40pm AEDT, Blacktown International Sportspark
The Giants go into this game as two-goal favourites in the ELO-FF computer. Beyond that we can imagine the Saints saving some strength for their more winnable home game against the Suns on Sunday. Take the Giants going away by more than two goals.
Fremantle Dockers vs Adelaide Crows
Saturday, 3:10pm AEDT, Fremantle Oval
The most important game remaining on the AFLW schedule bar none. Even though we currently list Adelaide’s rating as 1.5 points to the good over Fremantle, the venue plus the travel necessary makes this one a challenge for the visitors. If Kiara Bowers starts, Fremantle wins by two goals. If she doesn’t, we kinda like Adelaide, to be honest. Remember, we think the winner of this game wins the preliminary final home game, so there is much at stake here.
(Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Richmond Tigers vs Geelong Cats
Saturday, 5:10pm AEDT, Swinburne Center
We went back to see how the Tigers have performed here this year, and to our surprise they were 0-3 against the spread so far. Then we noticed those games were against Melbourne, Fremantle and North, and we completely forgave Richmond for losing them. Geelong is good and probably comparable to the Tigers this season; we’ll credit the home-ground advantage and suggest Richmond will win by nine points. A win here and another against GWS would give them a 4-6 record, which will probably be good for ninth place in their third season, their best finish yet.
Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Saturday, 7:10pm AEDT, Casey Fields
A home game for the Demons, so expect another victory, right? Well, they’ll be playing on short rest – one day fewer to recover than North have. We’re going to pick North by that one-point difference to win this under the assumption that no more major injuries happen to the Kangaroos in Monday’s game in Queensland. The importance of this game is underscored by the likelihood that the winner could very well host the loser in the 4-5 game during Week 1 of the finals.
St Kilda Saints vs Gold Coast Suns
Sunday, 1:10pm, RSEA Park
Both teams will come into this contest depleted and tired in what will be their third game in 11 days – or even fewer days for the Saints. If, as imagined earlier, the Saints do try and save something for this contest but Gold Coast correctly view their match against the Bulldogs as more critical to their success, then a St Kilda victory is very possible – in fact we have them as straight-goal favourites over the Suns in this contest.
But will we see the Saints that came within a kick of West Coast and Brisbane this month or the one that failed to look like scoring even one major in a 48-2 drubbing by fellow non-finalist Carlton last week? Under the belief that none of these teams are so putrid that they deserve a winless season, we’re picking St Kilda to prevent that here on Sunday with that one-goal victory that would probably seal Collingwood’s spot in the six.
Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs
Sunday, 3:10pm AEDT, Victoria Park
The second game of the round robin for Collingwood’s slot in the six should be a win without drama. But then again, so should Adelaide’s game with this team. The Dogs are the only outside team to defeat a top-six club in the last two years; they also beat the Demons by 13 in 2021. Still, the Pies are a comfortable 4-0 against non-finalists in 2021 and should hold their two-goal advantage over this opponent as well. Collingwood by 13.
West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions
Sunday 5:10pm AEDT, Mineral Resources Park
I don’t care that the Lions have to take the longest road trip in footy – the full width of the nation plus COVID restrictions – and I don’t care that the Lions played two days later than the Eagles did last week. This is the defending champs against a team that are 4-18 in their entire history. Brisbane by more than two goals.
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Carlton Blues
Sunday, 7:10pm AEDT, Manuka Oval
This is one of the games that help Carlton stop feeling so blue about their season. For some reason Carlton’s ten opponents in 2022 include all six finalists, which makes a winning record almost unimaginable. But with GWS and Gold Coast coming up, Carlton have the chance to pull themselves up to a four-win season, probably the best that could be expected with the schedule they’ve faced this season. And with the Giants coming off just three days of rest, the seven-point margin of victory our ELO-FF ratings predict for the Blues seems too low for our taste.
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