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Opinion
Round 5, played over a five-day period, failed to produce any significant upsets in the early games.
Therefore it firmed up my prediction of who will finish in each of the likely three sections at the end of the season.
At the top, there are the teams that will make it through to the finals. In the middle, there are the teams fighting for the final two positions in the eight. And at the bottom, there are the teams that win insufficient games to even be considered a chance of playing in the finals.
Starting with the bottom six, North Melbourne have averaged 65 points per game over the first five rounds, despite achieving a win over a severely depleted West Coast Eagles in Round 2.
That is well below the average achieved by Brisbane of 100 points per game and in an era when rapid goal scoring from a number of sources is the key, the 2022 season is fast slipping away.
A fighting performance in Round 4 against a probable top-six team in Sydney was negated by a severe beating by 68 points by the Western Bulldogs, who have yet to prove their top-six credentials.
The beating was not as severe as the first meeting between the two clubs in Round 3, 2021 when the Western Bulldogs not only scored their highest score ever against the Kangaroos (25.17.167) but also their greatest winning margin (128 points).
But it overshadows their second effort against the Bulldogs in 2021 when they were beaten by only 29 points in Round 10.
Comparing their first effort last year against this year’s, there is a ten-goal improvement and it is difficult to know whether that is down to North’s improvement or the Bulldogs’ slippage.
I suspect both, but I am more inclined to believe North Melbourne are a better team this year, but not sufficiently improved to climb out of the bottom six.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
They have an inspirational leader Jack Ziebell, who this week matched the number of games played at North Melbourne by ‘the Duck’ Wayne Carey.
There is a proven goal scorer Nick Larkey, whose four goals this week took him past his courageous teammate Ben Cunnington and level with Shaun Higgins, who served North Melbourne well for six years after a nine-year stint at the Western Bulldogs and now plies his trade at Geelong.
And there is a work horse Todd Goldstein, who is now the ninth greatest game player in the club’s 98-year history as a VFL/AFL team.
Add to this list Luke McDonald, another top 100 game player, and Cameron Zurhaar, already a top 100 goal scorer.
There is also a number of players recruited over the past three years (including this year’s boom recruit, 18-year-old Jason Horne-Francis, who has averaged 19 disposals per game since his debut in Round 1.
It appears likely that some progress will be made up the ladder.
In the first five games of 2021, North Melbourne averaged less than 52 points per game and this year it is over 65, an improvement of over two goals per game.
Likewise, their defence has improved, conceding ten points fewer per game. They had also not won a game at this point last year, but finished with four wins, so a finish higher up the bottom six is not out of the question for 2022.
Despite a below average performance on Good Friday, Kayne Turner could achieve both game and goal top 100 status by the end of the season.
Absolutely no one will be surprised by my early nomination of Melbourne as my first certain top-six nominee.
In fact, most will call me a wuss for not already calling the Demons number one or number two at the end of the home-and-away season, such is their dominance so far.
But I am well aware that we have yet to reach the 25-per-cent-of-the-season mark, and form and fitness (and this year COVID-19) can have a devastating impact on a team’s performance over a long season.
In any event, my aim is to nominate as soon as possible the teams that I believe will occupy the top six and bottom six positions on the ladder at season’s end and this will in turn identify the middle six.
They are the teams I expect to be fighting for the final two positions in the final eight as the teams remaining who did not make either of the other two lists.
My first nomination was North Melbourne for a bottom-six position, but it is important to realise that this only means I do not believe that they will finish higher than 13th at year’s end.
Such is Melbourne’s performance so far that it is difficult to nominate a team that will challenge them this year.
Last year there was only one team that they did not manage to beat during the season, and that was Collingwood.
The two reasons for this were they only played the Magpies once during the season and Collingwood were an emotion-charged club, playing their final game under their respected club champion Nathan Buckley.
This year, the Demons have performed even better than in the first five rounds of 2021 despite having only played one team who did not make the final eight last year, the Gold Coast Suns.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Against the Suns and the other four teams (Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Port Adelaide and Greater Western Sydney), Melbourne have started the season even better than in their premiership year last year.
They opened both seasons with five wins and this year have run out easy winners in every game with an average winning margin of over five goals.
Their attack has averaged over three goals more each week and their defence – while improving only marginally – has still managed to concede 14 fewer points, an average of nearly three per game.
It should be acknowledged that part of Melbourne’s success has come from an amazing run of injury-free players with the two main engine room players, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, figuring very prominently on the consecutive games list.
Oliver is number two with over 100 games to his credit and Petracca is number four.
Captain Max Gawn last missed a game in Round 13, 2020 while Alex Neal-Bullen, Kysaiah Pickett, Charlie Spargo, James Jordon and Angus Brayshaw all managed to also play in 25 games for the Demons in 2021.
Bayley Fritsch missed one game in the season.
This impressive list of consistent games played has also led to equally impressive top 100 games and goals lists at the club with five current players on each list.
Another three players (Oliver, James Harmes and Brayshaw) are due to join the game players in the near future, and one (Harmes) is a chance to join the top 100 goal kickers list as well.
With their excellent recruiting from other clubs (Ben Brown, Mitch Brown, Luke Dunstan, Ed Langdon, Jake Lever, Steven May and Adam Tomlinson) in recent years, Melbourne now have the depth of players to be a power house for many years to come.
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