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Opinion
Here is a sobering stat, currently Dave Rennie’s Wallabies record stands at nine wins from 23 matches, a win percentage of just 39 percent.
This marks with the worst win percentage for a Wallabies coach since the 1960s and no Wallabies coach who has coached as many matches (or more) as Dave has a worse win percentage.
If you think that is bad, it gets worse. Due to Covid 15 of those 23 matches have been home games! Only 8 away.
Most Wallabies coaches end up with fewer home than away matches due to playing one or two more away matches on the European end of season tour. But, DR and his team have had the luxury of playing 15 home games and only 8 away games.
Now that is one hell of an advantage that blows every excuse we can make in his favour out of the water.
Yet there seams to be very little pressure or talk of a potential sacking. In contrast, there was a heap of pressure on his recent nemesis Eddie Jones.
Amazingly, Eddie’s record for England is the complete opposite to Dave Rennie’s for Australia. Eddie has the best win percentage of any English coach since the 1960s.
Wallabies coach Dave Rennie. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
He even beat World-Cup-winning Clive Woodward’s record (maybe this is why Sir Clive is quick to jump on Eddie at any chance!) I wonder if an alternate universe where the English went one better at the last World Cup, would it have been ‘Sir Eddie’!
I get that Eddie (like Michael Cheika) is a prickly character and will attract a lot of negative attention whereas Dave comes across as a very nice bloke.
But, unfortunately there is one golden rule in coaching despite how nice you are or any excuse we can make – ‘Your record, is your record’.
Right now, Dave Rennie’s Wallabies record stinks.
Has there been progress under Dave’s watch? I would definitely say yes in some areas for sure. I think that the Wallabies have a much better balance to their strategy and have improved their tactical kicking game than at the end of Cheika’s reign.
Which wouldn’t be hard mind you. But, there are two major sides to being an international rugby coach – tactics and selection.
England coach Eddie Jones. (Photo by Mark Evans – RFU/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)
While Dave’s tactics look to be in the right ball park his selections aren’t. Every rugby team needs balance. A balance between attacking players and defensive players, a balance between runners and passers and so on.
For an international coach that means selecting players that compliment each other’s strengths. If you have a strong running-dominated payer at inside centre who is a poor defender, then at outside centre you had better pick a very good defender who has great hands to put his outside men away.
Lets look at out backline from the last game:
15 Reece Hodge
14 Tom Wright
13 Hunter Paisami
12 Samu Kerevi
11 Marika Koroibete
10 Noah Lolesio
That is a bunch of very running oriented players, not many natural passers of the ball. Even Noah at 10 would be more of a running 10 than a passer like a Jonathan Sexton or Quade Cooper. It also looks to be a backline that is very offensively oriented rather than focused on defence.
Most successful teams have a decision maker at 10 and one more either at 12 or 15. This way you have 2 players in your backline looking to make space for others with the pass.
For the Auckland Blues it was Stephen Perofeta at 15 and Beauden Barrett at 10, for the Crusaders David Havilli at 12 and Richie Mounga at 10, for the Brumbies Irae Simone at 12 and Noah Lolesio at 10. Our opponents England had Owen Farrell at 12 and Marcus Smith at 10.
I think that Irae Simone is a fantastic player and most teams would be lucky to have him at 12, but I get that DR is set on Kerevi at 12. Fair enough. If that is the case then you have to pick a 15 who can offer you more than running the ball like Banks, Petaia or even Hodge does. None of those three players create space for others. They are ball runners.
Andrew Kellaway has that ability to a certain extent and would be great if he is given more time in the role. Will Harrison and Ben Donaldson for the Tahs do too. Jock Campbell from the Reds for me is still too much of a run-himself player.
I am a big fan of Jake Strachan from the Force. He was a former 10 in Brisbane and has been excellent at 15. Is always looking to straighten the attack and create space for the players outside him with a well-timed pass or nice grubber kick behind. His combo with Manesa Mataele has been a joy to watch.
Our back row is another area that needs to be looked at:
8 Bob Valentini
7 Michael Hooper
6 Trevor Leota / Harry Wilson
All those players are ball runners. Not one would rate their defensive game better than their attack. Very little over-ball threat there.
8 David Pocock
7 Michael Hooper
6 Scott Fardy
That was the backrow for our last ‘successful’ team in the 2015 world cup. Pocock is an out and out defensive player.
His strengths are all over the ball. Fardy is more defensively oriented as well. Fardy was once asked after scoring a try at Leinster the reporter
‘You must be happy getting over the line?’
Fardy replied ‘my job here isn’t to score tries’
Pocock and Fardy balanced well with Hooper in 2015. So what to do with the back row now? We need more over the ball threats.
Liam Wright is an excellent option at 6. Strong over the ball, good in the lineout too. At 8 I would play Pete Samu. He is a well balanced player with a strong running game but a good pilfer too. Luke Reimer is even an option.
The tight five:
1 James Slipper
2 David Porecki
3 Taniela Tupou
4 Nick Frost
5 Matt Philip
Still too dominated by ball running / attack-oriented players. Now Porecki and Frost both have a nice balance to their game but Slipper, Tupou and Philip are all runners. I have not seen one of them even attempt a pilfer or counter-ruck in this series.
It is a big call, but I would drop Tupou. He used to be great over the ball and do his part in defence (sometimes too over zealously!), but now he is a liability at international level.
Defensively he does nothing, he is a ghost. A ghost that still gives away penalties. He just ‘saves’ himself to make a run close to the line. His style of play works at lower levels to a certain extent where defences are weaker but not internationally. Philip also I would not have in the team.
We need Tadg Beirne style of locks who can win three turnovers in 10 mins to win games against the kiwis. James Horwill was the last Australian lock I have seen come close to that. It was a shame Harry Johnson-Holmes and Jed Holloway got injured as they would have helped to balance out the tight five.
(Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
This is the same issue that has held back the Pacific Island nations – having too many players with the same strengths in their teams. If you look at Fiji in the 2019 World Cup.
There was a lot of hype about this team and their outside backs in particular:
Kini Murimurivalu
Josua Tuisova
Waisea Nayacalevu
Levani Botia
Semi Radradra
You can throw in Leone Nakarawa, Dominiko, Peceli Yato, and Viliame Mata in the forwards too. Now, those are a bunch of blokes I would not like to tackle!
Fiji had a horrible world cup. They lost three and only won one match (including losing to Uruguay). In hindsight, their team was very unbalanced.
A backline full of great ball runners but with no one to put them into space, too many high-risk offloading forwards and no grafters to do the boring work. The sum was less than the parts.
Rugby is a hard game to play and coaching it is even harder. I wish Dave Rennie and his team the best and want the Wallabies to have success but that won’t happen until changes in selection are made. Balance is the key. Yin and Yang.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.