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Opinion
As the old saying goes, rugby league premierships are won on defence so the team that’s best at the tackling part of the game will lift the trophy.
I am not sure that is necessarily the case these days in the six-again era.
Don’t get me wrong, defence will be very important and it’s no coincidence that the two best teams as far as points conceded this year were the first through to the Preliminary Finals – Penrith and North Queensland.
But now that we’re coming to the end of the third season of the six-again era, it’s clear that perfecting your attack in the key moments of matches, has never been more crucial.
We’ve seen higher than usual scores in the finals so far – the lowest winning total out of the eight matches has been 27 by Penrith in the playoff opener against Parramatta.
(Photo by Brendon Thorne/Getty Images)
The teams that have won have seized the opportunities when they have presented themselves.
Canberra are a good example of a team that got that wrong last weekend from the outset and the Eels ended up having a field day.
They could have scored a try early but Jordan Rapana dropped the ball over the line and then they had another one go begging when Jack Wighton was a step offside for an attacking kick.
Cronulla were unable to nail their execution in good-ball sets early in their semi against Souths and they paid the price when their opponents managed to get back down the other end of the field and take the chances.
From the four teams who will take the field this weekend trying to get into the Grand Final they all have outstanding attacking arsenals.
They all prefer going right to left. It’s a trend in footy that’s always been the case because most players are right handed and prefer to pass to the left with their dominant hand spiralling the ball to their teammates out wide.
On Friday night in Townsville, the home side will look to Val Holmes, Murray Taulagi, Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden to spark their attack down the left edge while the Eels have Dylan Brown feeding big Shaun Lane with Tom Opacic,if he gets over his hammy, Clint Gutherson in support and Maika Sivo ready to pounce.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Then on Saturday, Penrith will have Jarome Luai, Stephen Crichton, Viliame Kikau and Brian To’o, or maybe Charlie Staines if they switch them around, while it’s no secret Souths will lean heavily on Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker combining down their left with Cameron Murray and Alex Johnston.
The fact that Johnston has 30 tries for the second year in a row shows Souths are extremely potent when they head that way. It’s not just their execution but also their variation they put into their attack down the left.
Defensively as a head coach, you can do your homework around line speed and getting your spacing right and do a whole range of things, but it’s South Sydney’s subtlety that Walker, Murray and Mitchell play with that makes them so dangerous.
It’s one thing knowing it’s coming but another thing knowing how to stop it.
They can pick apart a right-edge defence with the shapes they run.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Mitchell is like the other three fullbacks still in action – Dylan Edwards at Penrith, Drinkwater and Eels skipper Clint Gutherson. They can swing their team’s attack down either edge of the field if they count numbers correctly and identify any weaknesses in the defence.
They’re the major indicator to a defensive line on which way they’ll go. If you give any of these four teams multiple attacking sets on your line, they will carve you up.
They’ve also got some very capable dummy-half operators around the posts in Api Koroisau, Reece Robson, Damien Cook and Reed Mahoney. It’s an even contest across the four teams but when you factor in who wins the battle for field position, that’s when the hookers come into their own.
Mahoney has improved a lot with his recognition of offloads and finds a pass to the right person – he’s quite a smart hooker in that regard.
When it comes to who’s going to be facing who in the GF, I think we’re going to see a Penrith vs North Queensland decider.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
If the Cowboys were playing Parramatta at CommBank Stadium, I’d be tipping the Eels but I can only see the fact that the game’s on in Townsville as a massive advantage and it will probably be the difference in the end.
Parra look like they’re doing a fly in, fly out mission and that may turn out for the best but it’s a different environment playing up there at the QCB Stadium.
The humidity can be a big factor with handling and the Cowboys live and train in those conditions which are not easy to negotiate without a lot of preparation.
I think North Queensland have got a little bit more improvement left in them and they’ve got a healthy squad which has the benefit of putting the feet up last weekend.
That kind of rest at this time of year is invaluable – it’s not better to keep playing each week of the finals even if people try to tell you otherwise.
And the Panthers with the big game experience, an exceptional general in Nathan Cleary and a week off might have enough energy to sneak past the Rabbitohs.
Cleary’s outstanding kicking game and their relentless defensive approach might be enough to limit the Rabbitohs number of attacking chances.
Should be two cracking games and all four teams are worthy of a place in the GF
Michael Hagan is a former dual-premiership winning first grade player and current assistant coach of Australia's Kangaroos team. Hagan played 183 games for Canterbury and Newcastle and represented Queensland five times. He transitioned into a successful coach and took the Knights to a premiership in his first year in charge back in 2001. He went onto coach 205 NRL games and six times for Queensland in Origin.