Opinion
Things are about to go to the next level as we enter the final round of the AFLW season.
As expected, the increased talent pool has resulted in a bigger gap between the best and worst teams in season seven, yet the fixturing and unpredictable final standings with a single set of games left has ensured that the entertainment has remained constant all the way through.
Whether you’ve been a die-hard fan all the way through, or a footy fan from New South Wales or Western Australia that has had to try focus on the micro-positives of your team’s performance, it’s worth analysing just what Round 10 is bringing us.
Now, the top eight is close to being set. The Bulldogs currently occupy a finals spot, but need to be on their game to make sure it’s locked in.
It means two, potentially three, of the games this weekend are irrelevant if you’re seeking games of consequence to fire up the viewing.
We’re not intentionally treating these teams with a flippant disregard – every single team that has missed the top eight this season has had moments of great positivity that is worth celebrating amongst the general failures.
It’ll be easy for the naysayers to look at the ladder and criticise the quality of games based on the numbers, but as we do with the men’s league, every club deserves to be looked at on a micro-scale and celebrate the good as much as attacking the bad.
Quite incredibly, no position in the top eight is officially locked in for a specific club. It makes predicting how the finals will look that little bit more exciting.
We’ll split this up a little so it’s a tad easier to understand, but even the impending blowouts are going to be exciting, as we’ll get the return of the live ladder in the bottom corner of our screens, inevitably updating with every score. It’s a fun time.
Only two teams can finish atop the AFLW ladder for season seven, with the Lions and the Demons currently tied with eight wins and a draw. Brisbane has scored 50 more points while the two have conceded the same number of points.
As part of Friday night’s double-header, the Lions will complete their match and know exactly where they sit. They own a great recent record against Collingwood and are hosting the contest, which holds them in good stead.
It isn’t necessarily a walk in the park though. Collingwood has plenty to play for and has only conceded six more points on the season than the Lions.
Conservatively, let’s say the offensive juggernaut of Brisbane wins this game, say 40-25, which is a rough reflection on Brisbane’s overall performance against similar rated teams.
This rough hypothetical leaves them with a percentage of 232.46.
The Demons are playing the early game on Saturday and they’ll know exactly what they need to do to win the minor premiership.
On Friday night, they’ll be cheering for every Collingwood score because on Saturday, they know they’re playing an Eagles team that has conceded 14 scoring shots a game over the last month.
The Eagles are averaging 24 points per game themselves, but we can expect the Demons to hammer their PlayStation controller into “park the bus”.
The easiest way to boost your percentage is concede as few points as possible. If Brisbane can successfully do that on their way to a win, they’ll finish on top. If Collingwood can kick a few goals, then the door is wide open for Melbourne.
This one’s pretty simple.
Adelaide won’t be losing to the Saints, so will secure third place on the ladder. Yes, if they lose, they risk falling out, but it’s such an unlikely result that it’s almost not worth entertaining.
Do your worst St Kilda, it’d be a wonderful way to end the season.
Erin Phillips of the Crows celebrates a goal. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Richmond and Collingwood are only one game behind the top two teams in the league, yet are at risk of not earning a double chance.
Not only that, but there’s a real situation where one of these teams ends up finishing seventh on the ladder if they don’t win in Round 10, which is extraordinary.
Preseason, it was clear that the Tigers were an underrated dark horse of the competition and it has ended up coming to fruition. They lost their first two games and haven’t dropped on since, which has included a win over Brisbane.
The thing is though, that they’ve had a pretty soft run. To make top four, they must beat North Melbourne, a team they’ve never beaten. A heavy reliance on Monique Conti is inevitable, but Katie Brennan has only kicked three goals from her nine scoring shots – they need better accuracy to support Courtney Wakefield, to put a score on the board.
The Magpies won’t roll over against Brisbane, but winning seems a bridge too far.
It’s unlucky for the team, they’ve been good and ultimately brave, having faced injuries to key players. Maybe they keep Ruby Schleicher inside defensive 50, using her, Lauren Butler and Stacey Livingstone to negate Brisbane aerially.
It’s an idea.
Is North Melbourne willing to throw an all-out attacking barrage on Richmond in a bid to sneak into the top four? They’ve got the percentage that would take them ahead of the Tigers and Magpies on even wins, but they need to be brave.
The downside? A loss would almost certainly leave the club finishing either seventh or eighth depending on other results. Of course, they’d back themselves in as an away finalist – they just smashed Collingwood at Victoria Park.
Securing a double chance would be the best avenue forward though.
And what about Geelong? They’ve been the surprise packet of the season and will play in their first finals series. Even more exciting for the Cats is the fact that they come up against the winless Swans, not only providing them with a winnable game, but a chance to boost their percentage.
The success has been largely on the back of the young midfield core of Amy McDonald, Georgie Prespakis and Nina Morrison. They need North Melbourne to beat Richmond in a close game, Brisbane to beat Collingwood and to win by enough to cover the percentage gap to the Kangaroos.
They’ve made it this far, do they dare to dream?
If the Bulldogs beat Carlton, they’ll play finals. Depending on how much they win by and other results, they could finish as high as sixth, with seventh or eighth the most likely result.
The Blues have only won twice this season and despite leading Richmond for much of their contest just a fortnight ago, haven’t really been all that competitive.
Still, a slip-up could have catastrophic consequences. Like their male counterparts, the Bulldogs have conceded the most points in the top eight by far. If their offensive game is off, Carlton could get off to a flyer and be hard to catch – remember, Gabby Newton is the only Bulldog to kick more than five goals this season.
It means that the Suns will be watching the 6:10 Friday night game intently. Should the Bulldogs lose, Gold Coast has 48 hours to prepare and carefully create a tactic that will make up the percentage points needed to make the eight.
The Suns play against the second-worst defence in the league, the Giants. They’ll be hoping for a Friday night miracle in rain-soaked Melbourne, as they aim to be the first Gold Coast team to play finals.
FINAL LADDER PREDICTION:
1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. Adelaide
4. North Melbourne
5. Richmond
6. Geelong
7. Collingwood
8. Western Bulldogs
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