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Opinion
Following the announcement from Qatari officials regarding the ban on alcohol sales in and around World Cup stadiums, I’m going to have to pour a glass of cold water on Australia’s hopes in this opening game, rather than a cold beer.
Coach Graham Arnold has stuck to his modus operandi, constantly talking of intangibles like culture, togetherness and grit. The mystical Aussie spirit has also been at the forefront of any conversation regarding our hopes in Qatar, and in a knockout tournament, these things can’t be overlooked.
However, they simply can’t overcome some truly worrying statistics for the Socceroos.
Throughout AFC qualifying, Australia played to a worryingly low 0.25 xG per 90 minutes differential, which is extremely poor given that the majority of sides faced ranked between 76 and 130 in the world.
In the two games against Japan, a thorough litmus test for how things compare against elite competition, the Socceroos were thoroughly outplayed, losing both games convincingly whilst losing the expected goals battle 3.98 to 2.1. Worrying signs, indeed.
Arnie is going to have the difficult task of fixing the worst defensive side in the third round of AFC qualifying. Per The Athletic, Australia ranked last in passes per defensive action (12.1), big chances conceded (15), shots conceded (104) and expected goals allowed (11.02).
What this demonstrates is Australia’s lack of ability to keep the opposition from progressing the ball into dangerous areas of the pitch, and a complete lack of being able to defend their own penalty area. To be certain, any defensive output resembling the above will spell disaster against a France team boasting perhaps the best array of offensive weapons at the World Cup.
A defensive bright note for the Socceroos is the form of Mat Ryan, who continues to be a remarkable shot stopper. Throughout qualifying, he was saving at roughly 3.1 goals above expected, and will need that brilliance to keep Australia in matches.
In possession, things don’t get much better. The Socceroos averaged 50 per cent possession through that third round of qualifying, suggesting a crisis of identity. Arnold’s side neither possesses the ball in abundance or sits back and looks to hit on the counter.
Looking over the passing maps for the games against the United Arab Emirates and Peru, there’s an abject lack of connectivity between the front players. Mathew Leckie in the false 9 role against the UAE was uninvolved to the point of being irrelevant, and the duo of Mitch Duke and Ajdin Hrustic were similarly anaemic against Peru, barely registering a touch on the ball.
Ajdin Hrustic (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
So, how does this all pan out against France? Well, the defending champions do have their own problems. Missing N’Golo Kante and Paul Pogba in midfield, French coach Didier Deschamps has already openly stated that his side will look to be defensively sound and conservative in possession.
Whilst the replacement players in midfield, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga, are elite disruptors and screeners, they do lack progressive and creative passing in central areas to drive the attack, and may take a while to unlock Australia’s low block.
Arnie is going to set up with 10, possibly 11 men behind the ball. Fearing the pace of Kylian Mbappe in behind what can only be described as a porous defensive lineup, the only chance the Socceroos have is conservatism plus in a low block.
Sadly, that bodes for quite an uneventful opening match, as France will likely maintain possession in the middle third, shifting side to side and looking to isolate Mbappe one on one. His individual brilliance needs no introduction, and it will take an outlier of a performance from the Aussie backline to keep him off the score sheet.
The lack of competency for the Australian midfield to progress the ball and involve any attacking players in possession or transition gives little hope to them scoring a goal from open play, with a set-piece the likely avenue to goal.
Harry Souttar, fresh off ACL surgery, did score six headed goals throughout qualifying, but whether Australia can do enough to get up the pitch and generate corners or attacking free-kicks remains to be seen.
Intangibles can go a long way in sport, but papering over some truly alarming underlying statistics is perhaps a step too far. The Socceroos will be stubborn and gritty, and Deschamps’ tactics will keep the final score down, but it’s hard to envision anything other than France winning by 2 or 3 goals to nil.
Luckily, we can enjoy a cold beer to drown our sorrows and not just a glass of water.
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