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Opinion
The countdown to Round 1, 2023 has officially begun – so throughout January, I’ll be looking at all 18 AFL clubs and doing my best to put together an optimum team for the new year.
I’ll take injuries and suspensions into account, but this won’t be a predicted team for Round 1 – think of it more as a guide to what your team’s best 23 (the 22 starting players plus the new unrestricted substitute) could look like as the year unfolds.
Today’s edition features the reigning premiers, Geelong. Check out the links below if your team has already been done.
>> Goalsneaks galore, but who holds the fort down back for the Crows this year?
>> More new guns than they know what to do with, how do the Lions fit everyone in?
>> Is this the team that can take Carlton from heartbreak to happiness?
>> Why Tom Mitchell looms as recruit of the year for never-say-die Pies
>> The Bombers have promise… but can Brad Scott unlock it straight away?
>> Can the most important teenager in the AFL deliver for the Dockers?
After years of finals heartbreak, 2022 was the season it finally all clicked for the Cats.
The results were spectacular: they weren’t beaten after Round 9, had two of the season’s most dominant forwards in Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron, and put on a performance for the ages in the grand final to trounce Sydney by 81 points.
Deserved flag favourites to start the new season, the Cats nevertheless have some obstacles to overcome, the greatest of which is filling the void left behind by the great Joel Selwood. For the first time since late 2011, a new captain must be chosen, and while they have a plethora of qualified leaders, replacing one of the best skippers in the history of the game won’t be an easy task.
With Hawkins needing foot surgery over the off-season, the Cats have already had a reminder that their band of ageing champions aren’t getting any younger, and will at some point need replenishing. Fortunately, a bountiful trade and draft haul that netted them a potential Selwood clone in Jhye Clark plus a trio of promising new recruits in Oliver Henry, Jack Bowes and Tanner Bruhn, they’ve got enviable depth if one or two of their veterans teeter over the cliff in 2023.
As we saw with Melbourne last year, securing back-to-back flags is a monumental ask for even the greatest sides. The Geelong superteam of 2007-2011 never did it: can this generation of Cats climb the mountain?
The Cats’ defence is basically a cheat code at this point. Ranking third for points conceded in the 2022 home-and-away season, with just five more than leaders Melbourne, it follows a second-placed finish in 2021, fourth in 2020 and first in 2019. They’ve been exceptional for a long time.
The cornerstone of their success last season was adding an extra attacking dimension to their game without compromising their soundness behind the ball. It meant being a little more daring with their rebound 50s, looking to move the ball forward rather than solely retain possession, and it paid off in spades.
The footy world raved over Sam De Koning‘s first season, in which he stood some of the game’s most menacing forwards and seldom if ever was beaten, but without ample support there’s no way he’d have reached the heights he did. He was only asked to engage in 69 one-on-ones inside attacking 50 for the season, a full 60 fewer than the clubhouse leader, Brisbane’s Harris Andrews: only Richmond, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs didn’t have a key defender perform the solo role more than that.
The scary thing is that he and Jack Henry are both only going to get bigger, stronger and better in time, which is horrible news for opposition forwards.
Tom Stewart is the glue which holds this group together: an intercept-marking, neat-kicking rebounder who also doubles as a capable stopper on small forwards deemed good enough to be worth his time, there are more strings to Stewart’s bow than any other defender in the game.
The only question is whether he gets the nod to replace Selwood as captain, after being elevated to co-vice-captain in 2022 alongside Patrick Dangerfield. The Cats don’t generally mess about with their leadership structure – Selwood held the captaincy for a decade without a single second thought – and with Dangerfield a few years older and mildly injury prone, Stewart is certainly my favourite.
The underrated Jed Bews is another lock as the primary small defender; there aren’t too many more underappreciated players in the game than the unassuming 28-year old who seldom fails to get the job done. Mitch Duncan‘s move to half-back last year was an inspired one, with the long-time wingman’s sharp kicking and elite workrate crucial in the Cats’ more freewheeling game plan.
With Stewart and Bews both capable of taking on mid-sized forwards as well, there might be just one other spot for a quasi-third tall. Zach Guthrie gets the nod for me ahead of Jake Kolodjashnij purely as a more sound ball-user coming out of defence, but Kolodjashnij’s extra height and bulk certainly have their advantages, making it a real line-ball decision between them (unless Chris Scott can find a way to squeeze both in).
I’ve pencilled Zach Tuohy in for a permanent role in defence again, after roaming up to a wing a bit last year. With a crop of new options in the midfield coming in, his experience and poise make him still a key player at the highest level well into his 30s, and another year shoring the Cats up behind the ball seems on the cards.
Tom Stewart of the Cats celebrates. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The elephant in the room in the Cats’ engine room is filling the void left behind by Selwood. While no longer the bona fide star of the group in his twilight years, the captain was still a constant presence around the ball, tying with best and fairest winner Cameron Guthrie for most clearances at the club in 2022.
It might be a case of needing many plugs to patch up the hole: fortunately, the Cats have exceptional depth when it comes to quality in and under midfielders gagging for a chance to establish themselves in the first-choice centre bounce group.
Chief among them is Brandan Parfitt, whose progress up the Cats’ midfield pecking order took a hit last year when a mid-season injury put his spot in the team in jeopardy. Only injury to Max Holmes saw him named for the grand final, albeit as medical sub, but his ferocious attack on the ball will be ultra-handy for the Cats post-Selwood.
Parfitt has never been a high possession winner, but he led the Cats in tackles in 2021, and turning 25 in April, his best years are ahead of him. Surely there’s a spot in the best 22 for him now Selwood is gone: the issue for him is the improvement of Tom Atkins, who does everything Parfitt does with just an extra dollop of ferocity in all aspects.
It was Atkins’ move into the on-ball rotation, that not coincidentally came a week after the Cats’ final loss of the year to St Kilda in Round 9, that proved the spark that lit up the premiers’ season. He won stacks of hard ball, tackled like a man possessed, and refused to let the opposition have any breathing space at all.
There wasn’t a more improved player in the AFL last season than him.
With Atkins and Parfitt on hand as defensively oriented midfielders, that leaves Patrick Dangerfield to do what he does best: burst from stoppages and cut teams up on the attack. He no longer had to do it all himself in the Cats’ engine room, spending decent portions of time forward and on the bench.
Dangerfield is still too good to not be spending most of his time on the ball, and he still offers something the Cats don’t really have without him: the mix of speed and power that has made him one of the game’s all-time greats. But with plentiful options in the rotation, Scott can manage him throughout the season without compromising his line-up, as he did to great effect last year when the Cats enforced a five-week layoff on Dangerfield mid-year to ensure he was cherry ripe.
Guthrie’s numbers took a slight dip last year, but that was pretty much all down to the Cats’ change in style. He went from averaging nearly six uncontested marks a game in 2021 down to under four in 2022, with his average disposals consequently dropping from 29 to 24.52. But his tackling numbers improved dramatically, while his inside 50s (84 down to 73) and clearances (115 to 108) didn’t dip dramatically.
In essence, he became more efficient with his disposals, more inside in his role, and won a best and fairest in a premiership team because of it.
Rhys Stanley seems to have won the battle with Jonathon Ceglar for prime ruck duties after a career-best 2022, with his undoubted athleticism around the ground no longer compromised by his ruckwork, largely thanks to having a tougher and more impenetrable midfield at his feet.
Expect to see Toby Conway begin to challenge for the role after an injury-impacted first season, but the Cats aren’t a team that simply gifts games to younger players on potential alone. And while Mark Blicavs is around as a backup ruck option who just happens to start at centre bounces, win his own ball and even put on the occasional tag, Stanley doesn’t need a whole lot extra help from other, less versatile rucks.
The major question for Scott in the guts is how to accommodate new arrivals Jack Bowes and Tanner Bruhn. The Cats have already suggested Bowes is seen more as a midfielder by them despite spending most of his time at the Suns across the half-back line, while Bruhn was an accomplished inside midfielder in his junior days who never got a real crack at GWS in his time there.
Bowes’ extra experience and kicking skills, plus the fact the Cats sought him out rather than having him request a trade to them, as Bruhn did, gets him the nod in my starting 23… but the reality is with an ageing list, multiple players across the field would benefit greatly from the odd mid-season rest. And having Bruhn, as well as another hugely talented future prospect in Jhye Clark, in reserve biding their time for an opportunity is a great problem to have.
Pencil Max Holmes in on a GMHBA Stadium wing for the next ten years at least: he, probably more than anyone in the team, changed the Cats’ direction in 2022. His injection of raw pace around the ball was a godsend for a team looking to change its previously stodgy ways, and while his numbers weren’t eye-catching, his impact definitely was. After missing the grand final through a hamstring injury sustained in the prelim, surely no one at the Cattery will be more driven to get them back there for another chance.
The Cats didn’t designate a specific other winger for much of last year – like a lot of teams, they often pushed a Selwood or Blicavs in to join the midfield pack once the ball had been bounced in the centre.
However, the likes of Tuohy and certainly Isaac Smith did spend time there at key points in the season, and after his grand final heroics, Smith seems more than capable to run the wing for another season or two at least.
Isaac Smith of the Cats celebrates kicking a goal. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
The Cats’ forward line fell away in 2021, ranking seventh for home-and-away points after finishing first and second in 2020 and 2019 respectively, but it was back at full power in 2022. They finished the year averaging more scoring shots than any team in the league, and only a minor inaccuracy problem, kicking the most behinds of any side last year, cost them the top spot again, eventually coming in third behind Richmond and Brisbane.
Tom Hawkins, 35 in July, is still the lynchpin, and the Cats will be desperately hoping he can bounce back from the foot injury he carried through the latter stage of 2022. There’s no one in the game quite like the Tomahawk: he’s the toughest one-on-one opponent inside forward 50 in the game, he’s still deceptively quick for the colossus he is, and too many teams are still struggling to find a way to stop him in forward-50 ruck contests.
Sydney certainly couldn’t in the grand final.
His presence as the spearhead lets the Cats use Jeremy Cameron to the full extent of his powers: where most sides would need him in attack at every possible opportunity, Geelong are able to unleash him at the occasional centre bounce, let him run opponents ragged up the ground with lengthy leads, and then double back inside 50 where he’s too strong for the defenders who can keep up with him and too nimble for the ones who can match him one-on-one.
Cameron remaining injury-free, but for one major scare on the eve of finals, was THE difference in the Cats going from premiership contender to premiers. Nine extra games and 26 extra goals from his efforts in 2021 makes a hell of an improvement to the scoreboard, and gave Scott all the confidence he needed to free his team up further afield.
The smalls, too, are lethal. Each of Tyson Stengle, Bradley Close and Gryan Miers play a distinct role that ensures they never get in each other’s way and continue to impact the team in critical areas.
Stengle’s speed, goal sense and accuracy earned him 53 goals, an All-Australian nod and a premiership last year; with him deployed close to the big sticks, it’s Close’s job to push up the ground and act as a link between the midfield and the last kick inside 50, while also putting on copious amounts of pressure to keep it there.
Miers has had his share of detractors over the years, but he seems to have locked down one of the more difficult, thankless roles in the game: as a high half-forward, he is often tasked with occupying the game’s best rebounding defenders while also moving in such a way as to create pockets of space ahead of the ball for teammates to stream into.
One of the best afield in the preliminary final, Miers, recruited as a bona fide goalsneak, sacrificed a lot of his attacking traits to help the team’s structure. He and Close deserve all the acclaim they get from Cats fans, and a good deal more from the general public.
The interesting spot is that of the third tall: an exceptional qualifying final, and indeed 2022, makes Gary Rohan hard to dislodge. Having substantially improved his pressure game last year, he no longer needed to rely on hitting the scoreboard to have an impact, and at his best his overhead marking prowess combined with his speed off the mark make him a difficult match-up.
But in many ways, new recruit Oliver Henry has similar traits, and having been starved for opportunities late in 2022 at Collingwood before an acrimonious departure, he’ll be out to establish himself in the first-choice line-up. And with the Cats unlikely to tinker with a winning attacking structure, that might just mean there’s only room for one of him or Rohan in the team.
Hawkins’ injury, which may or may not sideline him for the first few rounds of the season proper, could be an opportunity for both of them to stake their claims. At his best, Henry is good enough overhead to act as a third tall, with Cameron and Rohan as the main focal points. We saw multiple times last year at the Magpies his penchant for hitting the scoreboard, and his undoubted potential and versatility will surely interest the Cats in getting him games to see what they have to work with.
No doubt he’ll have to earn his spot – the Cats have stuck fat with their experienced core in recent years, and that looks unlikely to change with Rohan and co. – but I’d say it’s more likely than not that Henry will, by season’s end, be the incumbent in that role.
Backs: Jed Bews, Sam De Koning, Tom Stewart (c)
Half-backs: Zach Tuohy, Jack Henry, Mitch Duncan
Centres: Max Holmes, Patrick Dangerfield, Isaac Smith
Followers: Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs, Cameron Guthrie
Half-forwards: Bradley Close, Jeremy Cameron, Gryan Miers
Forwards: Tyson Stengle, Tom Hawkins, Gary Rohan
Interchange: Tom Atkins, Jack Bowes, Zach Guthrie, Brandan Parfitt
Substitute: Oliver Henry
Emergencies: Tanner Bruhn, Jhye Clark, Mark O’Connor
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