It is that joyous time of the year where the covers are coming off freshly painted liveries – except Red Bull – and everyone is buzzing about a new season of the Formula One World Championship igniting.
With a new year comes new challenges and also fresh expectations. Optimism fills those who’s teams or drivers had a difficult campaign last time out, but will it be met with the success they desire?
Here in reverse 2022 championship winning order are some realistic expectations for each team in 2023.
Williams
Predicted finish: 10th
It would be pretty easy to say that a good year for Williams would be not to finish last again, but given how competitive the midfield is in Formula One, it is not too far fetched to consign them to the rear of the grid.
This former titan of the sport’s ideal objective in 2023, will be getting its house in order under new Team Principal James Vowles. Establishing a healthy team culture will breed results eventually, but one must start at the core and that won’t be done easily.
Alex Albon was a standout in the FW44 and should be again this year, which just makes many people hope to see him in more competitive machinery. However, it’ll be his rookie teammate Logan Sargeant that attracts the scrutiny, because as we know from his predecessor – it’s difficult to shake off being regularly associated with the back of the grid.
AlphaTauri
Predicted finish: 9th
The Red Bull sister team was a puzzling case in 2022. Their car was uncompetitive, but also both 2020 Monza winner Pierre Gasly and Yuki Tsunoda just did not appear to be in the same league as their midfield rivals.
This is a team that won a race in the last three years and has also been on the podium thanks to Alpine bound Gasly. It is too much to expect a top three appearance for Formula E World Champion Nyck De Vries or Tsunoda, but the pressure ought to be on for seat retention.
Haas
Predicted finish: 7th
Formula One’s American team are the ones to watch this season and much was made of their decision to not retain Mick Schumacher for a third year. Instead they opted to bring back midfield journeyman Nico Hülkenberg, after three seasons on the sidelines.
The thought with 35-year old Hülkenberg is that he’ll hoover up the points lost by the young and erratic Schumacher; points that, despite their new title sponsor bringing in some big bucks, are a premium for Haas in terms of prizemoney.
Kevin Magnussen was excellent in his return to Formula One last year, earning the team’s first ever pole position in Brazil, but again there is a consistency that someone like a Hülkenberg brings that the Dane lacks. Hopefully with improvements to the car they’ll both be fighting for points every weekend.
Aston Martin
Predicted finish: 8th
The shock move from two-time world champion Fernando Alonso to head to Aston Martin is still quite bamboozling – in terms of the Spaniard’s own objective to win again. For the team, it would’ve been a coup to replace retiring four-time world champ Sebastian Vettel with another great of the sport.
Fernando Alonso (Photo by Charles Coates/Getty Images)
Realistically, Aston Martin are a team that is still a year or two off catapulting to the top of the midfield. Given the significant investments from team owner Lawrence Stroll and the ongoing construction of a fresh, state-of-the-art headquarters at Silverstone – something needs to give sooner than later.
Despite having to change the philosophy on their sidepods a quarter of the way through last season, which made Vettel able to trouble the top ten more frequently – the same could not have been said about teammate Stroll. So unless that changes, as superhuman as Alonso is – he won’t singlehandedly take the team any further up the grid.
Alfa Romeo
Predicted finish: 6th
It was pleasing to see Valtteri Bottas loving life post-Mercedes and also Alfa Romeo-Sauber taking its best finish in the constructor’s championship since 2012. Rookie Zhou Guanyu had a baptism by fire, but proved that he was unlucky more than anything – contrasting the criticism he received upon earning the seat for 2022.
Given that the long-term objectives for this team are orbiting around the impending takeover from Audi ahead of the 2026 regulation changes, 2023 may be more about each driver making a case for their future at Hinwil.
Though, in Alfa Romeo’s final year as the title sponsor, it would be nice to see them replicate their finishing position from last season – albeit with some more points. Which would also mean less unreliability from their Ferrari engines.
McLaren
Predicted finish: 4th
Daniel Ricciardo’s well documented shortcomings aside, 2022 was an underwhelming season for a team which had three top four finishes in the constructor’s championship in the past three seasons.
The early season brake problems were insignificant by comparison to other galling chassis flaws on the MCL22, which superstar Lando Norris dragged to third on the podium in Imola and to regular points finishes ahead of eventual fourth place Alpine.
Oscar Piastri (Photo by Alex Grimm – Formula 1/Formula Motorsport Limited via Getty Images)
There will be intense scrutiny on rookie Oscar Piastri, following the contract saga with rivals Alpine but a second year on the backfoot under the new aerodynamic regulations ought to garner more pressure. Sure, the team have tempered expectations to not wish for monumental gains until 2024 – but slumping or stagnating further back into the midfield will be unacceptable.
Alpine
Predicted finish: 5th
Almost halfway through their 100-race plan to return to being a powerhouse within Formula One, Alpine still are yet to fully convince that they can indeed achieve that within the time defined by CEO Luca De Mayo.
Even though they finished fourth – which was their best since 2019 – Alpine were still disappointing in 2022 in terms of reliability, which was well documented by their former driver Alonso.
What’s also going to be interesting is the dynamic between new teammate Gasly and incumbent Esteban Ocon, who’ve a long and personal history of disagreement. A talented pair of Frenchmen, who’re also race winners – but there is too much unpredictability around Alpine, so it’ll be an achievement just to finish where they did last year.
Mercedes
Predicted finish: 2nd
It would be naïve to not aim high with the eight-time constructor’s world champions and state that they’ll be back in the title hunt, after their problems in 2022. Mercedes aren’t the type to sit still and not learn from their mistakes, hence why it’ll be no surprise to see their fortunes turn.
The troubles endured in 2022 will have made Lewis Hamilton hungrier and realistically the most consistent candidate to challenge reigning world champion Max Verstappen.
Mercedes are agile, operationally sharp and under the leadership of one of the best team principals on the grid. Hence, no less than being in title contention with either Hamilton or the burgeoning George Russell will be acceptable.
Ferrari
Predicted finish: 3rd
Of course, a good year for the Scuderia would be to actually end their title drought dating back to 2007 (2008 in the constructor’s) and finally be crowned world champions.
But if there’s one thing we have learnt about Ferrari in the last decade, it is to either temper expectations or have no expectations. That leads to little or no disappointment in the end, when another principal is sacked or a lead driver’s title challenge ends prematurely in the wall at the side of the circuit.
New boss Frederic Vasseur will need the Ferrari board to let him and his squad be, while also making his team members more accountable than his predecessor did. If not, then rather than empowering improvement, they’ll be susceptible to the same comedy of errors seen in 2022.
Red Bull
Predicted finish: 1st
Nothing short of a third title for Verstappen or consecutive constructor’s championships would constitute a good year for Red Bull. They were mighty in 2022 and showed little sign of weakness.
It remains to be seen if their cost cap breach penalty around their aerodynamic testing will actually have a significant impact on them. But given how far ahead of their rivals they were by the end of the year, it may prove to be just an inconvenience – which would reflect a travesty in the sanctions handed down by the FIA.
If anything, despite a two-year contract extension and some excellent wins in Monaco and Singapore, Sergio Perez may find himself in the firing line should Red Bull decide he’s no longer what they need next to Verstappen.
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