The fresh smell in the air is the return of the NRL, back this Thursday night. The off-season has been shorter than usual thanks to the World Cup and the early World Club Challenge, but that doesn’t stem the excitement that the big stuff is here again.

The start of the season is a time for maximum optimism, with anything possible in the next seven months.

But…we don’t play that game here: we’re going to talk about the difficult stuff. What is missing, and how can they fix it? Let’s dive deep…

Panthers

It’s obvious, but motivation. There’s a very good reason that teams don’t do threepeats very often: it’s very hard to get up back to back to back, every team is gunning for you and everyone has had a big long look at how you play.

Playing groups also need regular renewal and, while the Panthers (and the salary cap) are doing that, it’s hard to keep the hunger going with the same blokes.

Sharks

The Sharks were excellent last year but not as good as a second place looked: if you recall this previous piece about performance evaluations, their performances rated them lower than Souths and the Cowboys, who both beat them in the finals.

Simply put, they were excellent at racking up wins against weaker teams and depleted teams (during Origin) but struggled against the best, which is ultimately what matters.

Their draw helped them a lot in 2022 and won’t be as kind in 2023, and they need to improve on a record that saw them go 4-5 against other finals teams, with two of their four wins coming in Origin and a third in Golden Point. Beating the chaff will get you to the finals, but beating the good teams will win you a comp.

Cowboys

Can they back it up? North Queensland were breakout stars in 2022 and it was on the back of teak tough defensive work. Their attack, at times, wasn’t as fluent as others and relied a lot on Chad Townsend’s boot and Jeremiah Nanai’s uncanny ability to pop up in the right place at the right time.

Todd Payten was obsessed with improving their defence and that got them as far as it did in a sustainable manner. However, when the chips were down, they lacked the polish at the very elite level to beat better sides. None of their spine are in the highest echelons of the NRL at the moment, and that showed at the pointy end.

That next step can come from their spine going up another level or their execution being good enough to maximise results from fewer chances in big games. Otherwise, it might be another close but no cigar for the Cowboys. 

Eels

Parramatta have lost their two key backrowers – Isaiah Papali’i to the Tigers, Shaun Lane injured – and they were crucial to the style of attack that generated so many of their points. They were experts in ‘pinning’, where the wingers spread the play and generated areas for Lane and Ice to isolate guys infield, with offloads and line breaks often the result.

In theory, the tactical aspect should still work without those two, but whether anyone can replicate the sheer size of Lane or the footwork of Papali’i is an open question. Without their attack, Parra’s defence won’t be good enough. 

Storm

Can they stay on the field? The Storm were electric last year until injuries tore their backline apart, and they’ll start this season in a similar fashion with Justin Olam and Dean Ieremia joining Ryan Papenhuyzen on the treatment table.

Their ability to replace stalwarts like the Bromwich brothers and Felise Kaufusi, now departed to Redcliffe, will also be the greatest test of the next-man-up philosophy in a good long while.

Roosters

The Roosters peaked last year at the right time, but came out on the wrong end of a crazy game with Souths. That came off the back of a long run where it looked like they had sorted themselves out, ironing out a poor start.

This year, the task is simple: avoid that poor start. Robinson’s men chucked several games that they should have won last year, with defeats to the Knights, Dragons and Dogs their ultimate undoing. The 1-17 is fantastic, the pathway keeps producing juniors and they’ve just added one of the best 9s around to go with an elite level 1,6 and 7.

Having the players is one thing, but being able to reproduce your best week on week is another. They never managed that in 2022.

Souths

Latrell Mitchell. If he plays every game, my bet is that they win the premiership, because no player is so crucial to his team’s style than he is. It’s not that Souths are a one-man team, but he is the difference between a good one and a great one.

If Latrell is fit and available, then they can roll through all the bad teams and beat the good ones too, likely playing the best footy in the comp in the process. 

Without him they can still win but it’s a huge downgrade: if the Roosters lost James Tedesco they would be weaker but could adapt, and ditto – as we saw last year – with Penrith and Nathan Cleary. Souths need Trell.

Canberra

Canberra’s backline can be very good but is still waiting to fully fire. Their forwards are the match of anyone in the comp and their halves are good but the combination of Nick Cotric, Matt Timoko, Seb Kris and Jordan Rapana is down a few levels from the others. 

Xavier Savage will miss the start with injury, but he’s set to grow into a proper standard of fullback, so there’ll be no worries there. However, the other four would come towards the lower end of the finals-quality teams and well off the elite.

They’re all capable of better, but one senses that the second week of the post-season is their limit until one or more of that unit steps up a notch.

Broncos

Can they be good rather than lucky? If you followed the xLadder, you’ll know that Brisbane’s nosedive at the end of the year was them regressing to the middling performances that they had been putting in all along. Results were different, but that was always unsustainable.

There’s no reason why this team can’t be right up there, with one of the strongest rosters going, but they’ll need to actually show it. Too often last year, they were bailed out by luck or the opposition falling flat on their faces. 

Obviously, ‘they need to play better’ would probably work for any team on this list that isn’t called Penrith, but for the Broncos, it’s completely true.

They were the ninth best team in the league well before they were the actual ninth best team, with a roster that was far better than what they produced.

Dragons

St George Illawarra don’t currently have a five-eighth, which is a massive problem, but one that will likely solve itself sooner rather than later as one of their varied options becomes available again.

The problem might be that their draw is heavily weighted to the start of the year, and coach Anthony Griffin might not be around by the time Junior Amone, Jayden Sullivan or Jack Bird are back on deck. 

The Dragons board would do everyone a favour by publicly backing their man – no dreaded vote of confidence, an actual backing – or telling the world a succession plan if they’re going to let his contract run down and replace him at the end of the year. 

It’s hard to get past an ageing roster and an unstable coach as the glaring issue, but it could be done if some unequivocality was shown.

Manly

Much like Souths, this comes down to one bloke: Tom Trbojevic. With him in the side and what looks like a rejuvenated group, it’s entirely possible that the Sea Eagles go well and overperform expectations.

Without him, they can bumble along OK given the extensive practice Reuben Garrick has had at the back and the promise of Kaeo Weekes coming through, but Turbo really is the difference.

That means a proper, fit Tommy T too. Last year, though he was playing relatively well, he never looked 100% and the rumours of hamstring issues followed him even before a shoulder knock actually ended his year. 

Having done the now well-trodden path to Philadelphia to see the hamstring guru, they’ll hope that’s in the past. It needs to be.

Bulldogs

There’s a lot of moving parts at Canterbury, but one of the unchanged positions remains the biggest concern. Cameron Ciraldo and Gus Gould have bought cannily in a lot of areas, but their halfback remains Kyle Flanagan.

I’ve been a long-time defender of Flanno as a player, feeling that he was much maligned for reasons largely not to do with his footy. The truth is, however, that his footy hasn’t always been as good as it could be, and that largely lies in an unwillingness to take the ball to the line.

At times last year, it seemed like he was operating further from the defence as a matter of coaching, intentionally playing second fiddle to Matt Burton, and his numbers backed up the eye test that he was acting in a constrained way.

This year, he’s got the keys and will be allowed to play a bit more. If he doesn’t, it’s probably on him this time and the Dogs will suffer for it, and likely give one of Karl Oloapu or Khaled Rajab a go instead.

Titans

The main problem with the Titans is the same one it’s always been: defence. If they tackle well, they can make the finals because the attack consistently produces points and they’ve strengthened it well in the off-season.

But conceding 28 points per game can only land you in the battle for the spoon. The outside backs, in particular, struggled badly to execute in defence and allowed plenty of tries that other teams simply don’t concede.

They’ve moved several deckchairs around in that department over the summer and will hope for a better result. If it doesn’t come quick, Justin Holbrook might pay the price.

Knights

The talk has all been about Kalyn Ponga’s move to the halves, but what will that mean for fullback? The Knights have Will Pryce set to arrive next year, with the intention of playing as a 1, but gave Lachie Miller a three year deal to fill a one year gap.

Miller looked decent in his appearances at the Sharks, but four games of first grade at fullback is not a large sample size to pick from. 

How they must regret letting Tex Hoy walk: he was one of their best in a poor end to 2022, but only after Ponga had got injured and he’d already signed with Hull FC in the Super League.

Miller will turn 29 mid-year and only began playing rugby league professionally last season, with most of that coming in the NSW Cup at Newtown. 

It’s not encouraging stuff, and while he might turn into a dollar dazzler, at the moment it looks like they’ve gained a potentially great five eighth but lost a million dollar fullback.

Warriors

Like the Bulldogs, the Warriors have undergone a fair bit of reconstruction, with an ex-Panthers backroom staffer in the top job and a series of moves in key positions, but the same halfback as last year.

Shaun Johnson will be remembered as one of the best of his generation and an all-time for New Zealand, but that peak was now nearly a decade ago. Though he’s 32 and more than capable of producing again, it is probably his last chance to prove that he still has it.

This Warriors team could potentially be good, and there’s a fair few young players who can make an impact. But they need a wise head to guide them around. Johnson has to be that guy.

Tigers 

Expectation among Tigers fans is sky high, and it should be tethered directly to the success of their forward pack. Not so much because they are the secret, but because they can unlock Luke Brooks and Adam Doueihi. 

Brooks has been much-maligned, but according to the stats, performed surprisingly well given the paucity of opportunities afforded to him behind a beaten pack. His per-possession numbers were actually well above average, suggesting that there might be a story beyond just his perceived deficiencies.

Doueihi was perhaps the opposite: he got better and better the longer he was out of the team last year, and when he returned from injury, the year was already a right off. He’s never nailed down a proper position but he and Brooks are now set in stone for 2023 as a pairing, behind a good 9 and a potentially good pack. We’ll find out soon enough if they’re the real deal.

Dolphins

The Dolphins’ roster is essentially one big glaring issue, but as discussed at length last week, wins aren’t really the measuring stick for them in 2023.

If the reports are true and Isaiya Katoa is going to be given the keys to the side ahead of Anthony Milford, then the biggest glaring issue gone because Milford might well have been in. 

Instead, let’s discuss their outside backs. The existential problem of the non-Redcliffe Dolphins is that we’re already oversubscribed for underperforming South East Queensland footy clubs, and that’s after the Warriors have packed up and left.

The place has been a graveyard for defending, and that reputation might grow. I love Oliver Gildart dearly as an attacker, but he wasn’t in the top five centres in Super League defensively and that’s a much more suspect competition than the NRL is.

Brenko Lee has had seven clubs already. Euan Aitken didn’t get a gig in the centres for the Warriors last year and they leaked tries for fun. Valynce Te Whare is a huge talent but untested at NRL level.

It’s worrying because, as the Titans have proven, you can lose a lot of winnable games through poor edge defence. Wayne Bennett will have the culture sorted and Kristian Woolf will have them drilled, but individuals have to show up.