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Opinion
The AFL season is so close we can taste it. Can it really be almost six months ago that Geelong waltzed away with the premiership in one of the most uninspiring grand finals of the century?
A new season brings fresh hope, and plenty of action in the trade period means all the teams that finished in the top eight last year will consider themselves stronger. Certainly, each club thinks they are even better placed for a crack at the top four.
For those just outside the eight last season, supporters have every reason to think they can barge their way in for a variety of reasons. At this time of year, we are all alive with possibility.
Brisbane are the best placed to finish on top at the end of the home and away rounds. They’ve finished top four on the ladder in three of the last four seasons, and still managed to make a prelim from the one time they missed.
The Lions know how to score, having kicked more goals than any other team during those four years, finishing top two in points on each occasion. Defence wins premierships though, as the saying goes, and Chris Fagan is a slow learner.
Brisbane keeps getting found out at the pointy end because their defence simply doesn’t stand up given the downhill skiing type of game they play. You have to admire them for doubling down though, bringing in more forward firepower via Jack Gunston, as well as another prime mover in Josh Dunkley.
The memory of Melbourne’s devastating 2021 finals series still lingers. They were almost everyone’s tip to go back-to-back in 2022 and were unbeaten through the first half of last season to further entrench these ideas.
However, the Dees lost eight of their last 13 games including getting bundled out of finals in straight sets, in a remarkable fall from grace.
(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Their forward-line fell apart and became their weakness. Similar to the Lions, have they really addressed their achilles heel with the addition of Brodie Grundy and Lachie Hunter? Perhaps Grundy frees up Gawn to be a forward threat, and Hunter’s skills targeting teammates inside 50 should help.
Geelong were a true powerhouse last year, peeling off 16 wins in a row to sail away with an easy flag, punctuating their season with wins by 71 and 81 points respectively in their prelim and grand final.
Somehow, somehow, somehow, the Cats were able to add excellent young talents like Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes and pick 7 at the national draft to their list after dominating the season so comprehensively. CEO Steve Hocking certainly knows how to work those angles after running football for the AFL in-between a lifetime of service at Kardinia Park. It’s not what you know…
Even the great Geelong teams of 2007-11 couldn’t win two premierships in a row, which is something their dynasty lacked compared to Richmond, Hawthorn and Brisbane this century. It’s not easy to scale the cliff-face again.
Jeremy Cameron of the Geelong Cats celebrates. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Fremantle are an interesting team to assess. A soft draw last year enabled them to climb into the finals conversation, but they did beat Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane at various stages to show they did possess some quality.
The Dockers have added rising talent Luke Jackson to complement Sean Darcy and offset the loss of Rory Lobb, prised Jaegar O’Meara away from Hawthorn at the 11th hour to add grunt to the midfield, and will hopefully have access to Nat Fyfe for a full season as a permanent forward.
They have built steadily under Justin Longmuir and must be in the mix to elevate their standing once again.
The Western Bulldogs have never finished top four on the ladder under Luke Beveridge, despite winning a premiership and losing a grand final. Can they finally step up and show they are capable of fulfilling their talent over a 24-round season?
The addition of Liam Jones in defence addresses a key weakness down back, and Rory Lobb arrives off the back of a career best season as a key forward and back-up ruck. Add in natural improvement from Jamar Ugle-Hagan, Sam Darcy and even Aaron Naughton, plus a fully fit Tim English and the tall stocks of the Dogs are in rude health.
With a midfield of Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore, Bailey Smith and Adam Treloar feeding the forward-line, they really have no excuses but can’t be trusted until they prove it week in, week out.
Carlton were quite the story last season, a fast start rocketing them into premiership contention before fading badly to not even make September in the end. They lost their last four matches, twice conceding leads in the dying stages.
The Blues didn’t bring in any big names like most of last year’s finalists did, but they also arguably have the most room for natural growth. Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay can only get better together, and the midfield group of Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra, Matthew Kennedy and George Hewett should be more cohesive still.
Sydney probably reached a grand final ahead of time in 2022, and history tells us that it’s not easy for a young side to rebound from a caning on the last day of September.
Callum Mills went to another level last season and the stars of Chad Warner and Errol Gulden keep rising, so that will keep the Swans somewhere around the mark. But going from scrappy underdog to a higher level of expectation is a mental challenge they have to answer.
Are Gold Coast ready to play finals? It will be long overdue, but it’s certainly no good thing.
They are well coached, but need to prove they can rise above the middle of the table. They need a goal or two more a game, plus to concede a goal or two less. Is the midfield quite there yet, to take on the stacked talent of those above them?
Similar to the Suns, Adelaide are rising steadily and appear ready to knock on the finals door well into the season. Matthew Nicks has done a great job after taking over at a low ebb in the club’s history.
They might still be a gun midfielder short, but Sam Berry got better each week last season, and now Izak Rankine is added to the mix, along with Josh Rachele in his second year to provide more of a threat. Darcy Fogarty must take over the reins as the main man up forward for the Crows to jump.
Collingwood were the freshest breath of air in the competition last year; after years of dull and stodgy play under Nathan Buckley they were freed up to play with attacking flair with Craig McRae at the helm.
Ultimately, the Pies were probably the ninth or 10th best team in it but had the most extreme run of luck in close finishes that we’ve ever seen. That said, they were excellent in finals against Geelong and Sydney without winning. Tom Mitchell, Daniel McStay and Bobby Hill arrive to strengthen their credentials.
Port find different ways to fail under Ken Hinkley, and he is the coach most under pressure in 2023 after an extraordinary amount of time as senior coach without even a grand final appearance to show for it.
The Power play for Jason Horne-Francis was arguably the biggest of the entire trade period, but they got their man along with Junior Rioli from West Coast. Still, they remain the flakiest team in the competition, with too many players that are either soft, inconsistent or go missing when the heat is on.
Not much is expected of GWS, but they finally get a chance to shine now that Leon Cameron is gone. Perhaps Adam Kingsley can let them play to their potential, as there is still plenty of talent on that list and the question will be how much depth they have when injuries strike. They could be the sleeper.
Richmond is used to the weight of expectation, and it is at fever pitch with the arrival of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to add yeast to their midfield stoppage mix. But is it too little, too late as the old bones of their premiership years start to creak?
It’s easy to see the Tigers could start lacking for speed through the middle when adding Dion Prestia, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Jack Graham and Jack Ross to Taranto and Hopper in the midfield. And talk persists of Cotchin playing up forward alongside Martin, Jack Riewoldt, Tom Lynch and perhaps a resting ruckman? Shai Bolton can’t do it all, and trouble is brewing if they start to look treacle-slow.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Any of the 13 teams already mentioned could play finals this year, which leaves also-rans like St Kilda, West Coast, Essendon, North Melbourne and Hawthorn.
The Saints will undergo a reset with the returning Ross Lyon welcomed back with open arms, especially given an already mounting injury list. Lyon will, without doubt, be one of the most fascinating talking points of 2023.
The Eagles have looked shot for a year and a half, with little hope of redemption this season. They are tired and old. Much like with Collingwood and Nathan Buckley, GWS and Leon Cameron, and Port Adelaide and Ken Hinkley, they are crying out for a fresh voice and Adam Simpson must go.
Essendon are forever a rabble, but have perhaps made the smart calling by bringing in the General Manager of Football from AFL headquarters as senior coach. It worked out nicely for Geelong with Steve Hocking – it can never hurt to bring that IP into clubland.
North Melbourne has become relevant again since the appointment of Alastair Clarkson as coach, and we will get to see whether the old master has still “got it”. It was sad to see Jy Simpkin be made captain, when the bold choice of Luke Davies-Uniacke was there begging to be made.
Alastair Clarkson. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Hawthorn sold anything that wasn’t nailed down and cleared out everything but the kitchen sink at the end of last season, with Sam Mitchell doing it his way. James Sicily is always watchable, and now takes the field as skipper with a host of youngsters behind him.
Melbourne and Geelong are proven heavyweights, while Brisbane only wishes they were. The last two premiers to square off in the grand final, Fremantle and Carlton to challenge as the next wave of top four contender coming through, with Adelaide and Gold Coast to show they are on the right track.
Ken Hinkley won’t see out the year as Port’s flakiness finally leads to change, and question marks over Richmond’s recruiting will need to be asked.
Cam Rose’s 2023 AFL ladder prediction
1. Brisbane
2. Melbourne
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. Carlton
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Sydney
8. Collingwood
9. Adelaide
10. Gold Coast
11. Port Adelaide
12. GWS
13. Richmond
14. St Kilda
15. West Coast
16. Essendon
17. North Melbourne
18. Hawthorn
Grand Final: Melbourne to defeat Geelong
Norm Smith Medal: Clayton Oliver
Brownlow Medal: Marcus Bontempelli
Coleman Medal: Jeremy Cameron