In early 2019, fresh off a first-ever home series Test defeat to India, I examined how the Australian team would look if picked simply on batting and bowling averages. Since then, the Australian Test side has performed admirably, leading to the World No. 1 ranking and upcoming World Test Championship Final against India. Due to these achievements and the seemingly component selection strategy, I hadn’t felt the need to update the data.

However, two recent baffling selection decisions altered things for me: 1) The selection of Matt Renshaw over the in-form Travis Head for the first Test in India, and 2) The selection of Ashton Agar as the 2nd spinner in the SCG Test vs South Africa despite playing very little red-ball cricket.

This has led me to update the data and write this article on which players are most deserving of a Test call-up ahead of a monstrous six-Test winter in England.

George Bailey has stated that he plans to announce the squad for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final and first two Ashes Tests within the next week or so. This seems premature as there are still five more rounds of the County Championship before the WTC Final for the likes of Bancroft, Handscomb, Harris and Kuhnemann to stake their claims for selection.

However, since the squad announcement is imminent there is no better time to present the Moneyball Ashes Squad as it currently stands:

Methodology and Rationale

Back in 2019, I wrote the following:

“Wanting to incorporate both form and class, I structured the weightings for both Batting and Bowling as follows:”

2018-19 Performances are multiplied by 0.4
2017-18 Performances are multiplied by 0.3
2016-17 Performances are multiplied by 0.2
2015-16 Performances are multiplied by 0.1

I have amended this system for the 2023 Moneyball edition. I found that the above system, which weighted recent scores more heavily, led to far more instability in team selection as players would significantly move up and down spots from just one performance. This method would not allow for much continuity of selection in the national team.

Therefore, for the 2023 Moneyball edition, all scores are weighted evenly for all first-class performances in the last 4-5 years (since 1 January 2019). This makes it harder to break into the team, but also more difficult to lose your spot once in.

All Test performances for both batting and bowling received a 25% boost, meaning 50 runs in Shield Cricket is the equivalent of 40 runs in Test Cricket. I included this, as it is much easier bowling to Shield players on a green top at Bellerive Oval than it is on a Mumbai road against Virat Kohli and Cheteshwar Pujara. Similarly – you’d much rather face 125km/h non-swinging Shield bowlers than Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje at Centurion.

Test XI Selection (11)

5 x Batsmen
3 x Fast/Medium Bowlers
1 x Slow Bowler
1 x Batting All-Rounder
1 x Wicketkeeper

Squad Selection (19)

7 x Batsmen
6 x Fast/Medium Bowlers
2 x Slow Bowlers
2 x Batting All-Rounders
2 x Wicketkeepers

For the 2019 Ashes, Australia named a squad of 17, which included seven batsmen (David Warner, Marcus Harris, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Matthew Wade, Cameron Bancroft, Usman Khawaja), six fast/medium bowlers (Pat Cummins, Mithcell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, James Pattinson, Peter Siddle, Michael Neser), one slow bowler (Nathan Lyon), 2two batting all-rounders (Marnus Labuschagne, Mitchell Marsh) and one wicketkeeper (Tim Paine). Essentially, Wade also acted as the squad’s reserve wicketkeeper behind Paine, while Labuschagne served as the second spinning option.

As Australia will be playing six Tests in England for the first time this century, plus a couple of tour matches, I think a squad of 19 will be appropriate. Therefore, for this exercise, I have included a backup spinner and a backup wicketkeeper to add extra depth and competition for a spot in the XI. If players are playing county cricket and aren’t selected in the Test XI, they can easily be released back to their county sides and return accordingly.

A squad of 19 will ensure heavy competition in every role and gives us the best possible chance of joining the 1948 Bradman-led Invincibles as the only Test match side to play an entire tour of England without losing a match.

Batsmen for WTC Final and Ashes Series

Minimum Statistical Requirements:

Matches Played = 15
Runs = 915
Notable players excluded: MR Marsh, DR Drew, GJ Maxwell

Rank Player Mat Runs Bat Ave

1 SPD Smith 37 2868 65.12
2 M Labuschagne 85 7029 61.38
3 C Green 43 3051 57.65
4 UT Khawaja 52 3502 55.14
5 TM Head 69 4788 50.90
6 WJ Pucovski 21 1420 49.59
7 MS Wade 33 2489 49.46
8 DA Warner 32 2029 47.65
9 MS Harris 73 5432 45.41
10 SE Marsh 27 1883 42.84
11 AM Hardie 26 1322 42.65
12 NJ Maddinson 44 2862 42.09
13 PSP Handscomb 53 3229 40.93
14 AT Carey 39 1946 40.74
15 MC Henriques 31 1956 39.92
16 CT Bancroft 59 3840 39.70
17 BJ Webster 31 1820 39.57
18 MT Renshaw 51 3008 39.09
19 SM Whiteman 37 2497 38.42
20 TP Ward 21 1313 36.47
21 JJ Peirson 43 2068 36.28
22 DP Hughes 35 2136 36.20
23 BE Street 32 1836 36.00
24 HWR Cartwright 32 1789 35.78
25 N McAndrew 25 925 35.58
26 J Weatherald 29 1912 35.41
27 CP Jewell 27 1642 34.94
28 SA Abbott 30 1275 34.46
29 PM Nevill 24 1064 34.32
30 HJ Hunt 37 2380 34.00
31 BR McDermott 32 1762 33.88
32 MW Short 37 1854 33.71
33 JA Burns 51 2586 33.13
34 JP Inglis 31 1479 32.87
35 AJ Doolan 16 944 32.55
36 JC Silk 36 1865 32.16
37 TD Paine 44 1620 31.61
38 KR Patterson 36 1781 31.33
39 CJ Ferguson 22 1246 31.15
40 JR Philippe 29 1443 29.45
41 JR Doran 32 1568 29.04
42 SB Harper 28 958 29.03
43 CA Wakim 21 1101 28.97
44 HJ Nielsen 30 1455 28.53
45 NCR Larkin 20 962 28.29
46 JJS Sangha 26 1224 27.82
47 M Gilkes 21 965 27.57
48 TJ Dean 26 1208 27.45
49 JS Lehmann 28 1227 27.27
50 MG Neser 52 1367 24.66
51 PM Siddle 60 962 16.66

Selected in Moneyball Test XI: SPD Smith, M Labuschagne, C Green, UT Khawaja, TM Head, MS Wade

Selected in Moneyball Squad: DA Warner, MS Harris

Moneyball sees Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Cameron Green, Usman Khawaja and Travis Head ranked as the Top 5 batsmen in the country and retaining their spots in the XI. As Cameron Green is also the top-ranked batting all-rounder, the 7th-ranked batsman Matthew Wade also returns to the lineup. Will Pucovski (6th) was rated ahead of both Wade and Warner, but it looks like this tour will fall too soon for him as he continues his return to cricket following his mental health break and numerous concussions. Pucovski is heading to the UK to play cricket this winter, albeit at a level below the County Championship.

“I’ll be over there in a month or two, which will be good,” Pucovski recently told News Corp.

“So, yeah, getting a bit of continuity and then hitting the ground running next year.”

As a result, Moneyball argues for the inclusion of Wade, who has become the forgotten man of Australian cricket, last playing a Test match in 2021 and not receiving a Cricket Australia contract for 2023-24, despite averaging over 50 in Shield Cricket since being dropped from the Test side.

Given his age, Wade would not be the most exciting selection, but a quick recap of centuries scored by Australians in the 2019 Ashes, shows he is capable in English conditions:

Player 100’s

Steve Smith – 3
Matthew Wade – 2
Everyone Else – 0

In this lineup, Wade or Head would join Khawaja at the top of the order, with the other coming in at 5.

Harris also makes the Moneyball squad after impressive efforts in England with 1588 runs at 51.23 in county cricket.

Bancroft is a popular candidate after an exceptional Shield season (945 runs at 59.06) but his county performances since 2019 have been unspectacular (996 runs at 36.89).

Selectors will likely agree with Moneyball in selecting Smith, Labuschagne, Green, Khawaja, Head, Warner and Harris as they have all received Cricket Australia contracts for 23/24.

Given that Wade did not receive a Cricket Australia contract and has signed a deal to play in the inaugural Major League Cricket tournament in the United States in July, the reality is that he most likely won’t be selected.

If they do select an extra batsman, it looks like it will be a race between Bancroft, Renshaw and Handscomb.

Fast/Medium Bowlers for WTC Final and Ashes Series

Minimum Statistical Requirements:

Matches Played = 15
Wickets = 30
Notable Players Excluded: JA Richardson, SH Johnson, GS Sandhu

Rank Player Mat Wickets Bowl Ave

1 PJ Cummins 34 143 15.83
2 JR Hazlewood 23 79 18.73
3 MG Neser 52 216 19.83
4 SM Boland 37 142 20.46
5 MA Starc 41 150 21.88
6 JS Paris 28 94 21.94
7 PM Siddle 60 207 22.89
8 CP Tremain 29 97 23.16
9 MT Steketee 44 167 23.87
10 W Sutherland 31 102 24.23
11 JL Pattinson 34 121 24.91
12 JM Bird 37 138 25.04
13 LR Morris 19 63 25.43
14 XC Bartlett 18 62 26.03
15 TA Copeland 28 90 26.22
16 SA Abbott 30 102 26.25
17 HNA Conway 26 71 26.35
18 DJ Worrall 32 113 26.44
19 JD Wildermuth 26 61 28.05
20 M Kelly 39 113 29.09
21 AM Hardie 26 51 29.10
22 CJ Gannon 23 80 29.74
23 N McAndrew 25 85 30.75
24 GT Bell 16 51 30.92
25 M Perry 26 68 31.10
26 B Doggett 18 54 31.85
27 WA Agar 24 78 32.41
28 CJ Sayers 21 61 33.69
29 C Green 43 38 35.15
30 RP Meredith 19 57 35.60
31 BJ Webster 31 50 41.74

Selected in Moneyball Test XI: PJ Cummins, JR Hazlewood, MG Neser

Selected in Moneyball Squad: SM Boland, MA Starc, JS Paris

The 2019 edition of Moneyball called for the surprise selection of the uncapped Michael Neser, and the 2023 one has done the same as the Shield Player of the Year for 22/23 joins Cummins and Hazlewood in ranking ahead of Scott Boland and Mitchell Starc for a place in the XI.

Overall, this would be an exceptionally balanced group of quicks to take to England as it contains four right armers and two lefties in Starc and Joel Paris. Also, Starc (28.28), Paris (25.79) Neser (24.66) and Cummins (16.53) have very handy batting records since 2019.

Cummins (29 wickets @ 19.62) and Hazlewood (20 wickets @ 21.85) were outstanding in the 2019 Ashes, while Neser who is known for his menacing swing bowling, has backed up his Shield efforts by taking 60 wickets @ 21.95 for Glamorgan in the last two county cricket seasons.

Boland, Starc and Paris would provide the Top 3 with high-level competition for places and would allow the quicks to be rotated without a noticeable drop in quality.

Hazlewood is currently sidelined with a nagging Achilles issue but is expected to be fit come June. Paris is also a question mark after pulling out of the Australia A tour to New Zealand with a back injury.

If either fails to recover, the next two quicks on the list have both made excellent starts to their county seasons: Peter Siddle (7 wickets @ 16.85) and Chris Tremain (13 wickets @ 12.23).

In the eyes of selectors Cummins, Hazlewood, Starc and Boland will all be locks. As he received a Cricket Australia contract for 23-24, it is likely Neser will be recalled to the squad. However, Paris’s chances look less likely, as his state-teammate Lance Morris was selected ahead of him for both a Cricket Australia contract and the tour to India. Spencer Johnson is also an outside chance after an impressive start to his Shield career, but he has played just 4 first-class matches.

The luckless Jhye Richardson has an exceptional record (13 matches, 52 wickets, 18.41 average) and would’ve made the Moneyball XI if he had met the minimum requirements, however, he is all but out of Ashes contention after undergoing surgery to overcome his hamstring issues last month.

Slow Bowler for WTC Final and Ashes Series

Minimum Statistical Requirements:

Matches Played = 15
Wickets = 30
Notable Players Excluded: T Murphy, A Zampa, AC Agar

Rank Player Mat Wickets Bowl Ave

1 NM Lyon 56 216 25.31
2 MP Kuhnemann 18 56 30.16
3 MJ Swepson 30 97 32.39
4 JM Holland 33 95 32.41
5 BJ Webster 31 50 41.74
6 M Labuschagne 85 51 45.42
7 JA Freeman 20 45 45.44

Selected in Moneyball Test XI: NM Lyon

Selected in Moneyball Squad: MP Kuhnemann

These selections put the minimum statistical requirements into question.

After 482 Test wickets, and 22 wickets @ 22.36 in the recent tour to India, Lyon deserves to keep his spot in the XI as the nation’s best spinner.

Todd Murphy has had a very impressive start to his first-class career and actually ranks just ahead of Lyon with a bowling average of 24.27.

However, Murphy has played just 12 first-class games, so it would be far too early of a call to drop the GOAT in favour of Murphy.

It’s a shame that Murphy was forced to pull out of playing county cricket for Durham, as Cricket Australia manages his workload following a minor side strain. This means that Murphy won’t be able to make the 15 games required to make the Moneyball squad, paving the way for the man replacing him at Durham, Matt Kuhnemann.

Kuhnemann edges out Swepson and Holland for the spot, while white-ball specialists Agar, Zampa and Chris Green each failed to meet the matches played requirement.

In 2019, only one spinner was chosen by the selectors for the Ashes squad. However, with Murphy being given a Cricket Australia contract for 23/24 and Cricket Australia monitoring his workload, it suggests that both Lyon and Murphy will be named in 2023.

Batting All-Rounder for WTC Final and Ashes Series

Minimum Statistical Requirements:
Matches Played = 15
Runs = 915
Wickets = 30
Notable Players Excluded: MR Marsh, HWR Cartwright, W Sutherland

For the batting all-rounder position, I have cubed the batting average and then multiplied that figure by 1 divided by the bowling average. One school of thought is that the bowling average should simply be subtracted from the batting average. The other school of thought is that you should pick your 6 best batsmen. By weighing the batting average as triply more important than the bowling average, I have aimed to strike a compromise between the differing viewpoints.

Rank Player Bat Ave x3 Bowl Ave Score

1 C Green 57.65 35.15 54.52
2 M Labuschagne 61.38 45.42 50.92
3 AM Hardie 42.65 29.10 26.65
4 SA Abbott 34.46 26.25 15.59
5 BJ Webster 39.57 41.74 14.84
6 N McAndrew 35.58 30.75 14.64
7 MG Neser 24.66 19.83 7.56
8 PM Siddle 16.66 22.89 2.02

Selected in Moneyball Test XI: C Green, M Labuschagne

Selected in Moneyball Squad: AM Hardie

Green makes the XI for a second time, as the best batting all-rounder in the country.
As 2nd placed Labuschagne is also already in the XI as a batsman, 3rd place Aaron Hardie makes the squad.

24-year-old Hardie has been a major reason for the success of Western Australia in recent years, including a knock of 174 not out in the 21/22 Shield final. He’s also in good form after scoring a century while captaining Australia A this month.

Hardie was unlucky not to be selected for the SCG Test against South Africa when Cameron Green was injured, and Moneyball thinks it is time for him to receive his first national team call-up.

There is a slight chance the selectors deem that a backup all-rounder isn’t required as Labuschagne can provide a 5th bowling option. However, of Labuschagne’s 75 first-class wickets, only 17 of them have come since 2020, as he has become more of a specialist batsman.

Therefore, it is likely a backup all-rounder will be selected, and it is likely to be a close call for selectors between Hardie and Mitchell Marsh.

Marsh is not on the above list due to playing just 11 first-class games since 2019 but does have an exceptional record in those games (46.19 batting and 20.86 bowling).

Marsh also batted superbly in the ODI series in India and has recently started bowling again in the Indian Premier League after recovering from ankle surgery.

There is a very slight chance that both are selected if selectors opt to not select one of Bancroft, Renshaw and Handscomb.

White-ball all-rounders Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis fell short of the minimum matches requirement, but have worse records compared to Marsh and Hardie regardless.

Wicketkeeper for WTC Final and Ashes Series

Minimum Statistical Requirements:
Matches Played = 15
Runs = 915
Dismissals = 30
Must be a Wicketkeeper
Notable Players Excluded: MS Wade, SM Whiteman, M Gilkes

For Wicketkeepers, I have squared the batting average and then multiplied it by dismissals divided by matches played. I did not want to simply pick the keepers by their batting average as the ability of keeping differs. Unfortunately, first-class statistics for missed catches and stumpings are very difficult to locate. Instead, to account for wicketkeeping I am relying on the statistic of Dismissals/Matches played. This figure includes all matches played, even if the player didn’t keep wicket in a particular match. Therefore, specialist keepers (e.g. Carey, Peirson, Paine) have a far greater D/M compared to occasional keepers (e.g. Handscomb, Bancroft, Doran). D/M is a decent indicator but is heavily skewed by the pitch, length of the match, rain, as well as specific bowling and batting tendencies in terms of finding edges and drawing stumpings.

Rank Player Bat Ave x2 Dismissals D/M Score

1 AT Carey 40.74 138 3.54 58.72
2 JJ Peirson 36.28 163 3.79 49.90
3 TD Paine 31.61 193 4.39 43.82
4 PM Nevill 34.32 84 3.50 41.23
5 JP Inglis 32.87 101 3.26 35.19
6 PSP Handscomb 40.93 98 1.85 30.98
7 SB Harper 29.03 94 3.36 28.29
8 JR Philippe 29.45 83 2.86 24.82
9 CT Bancroft 39.70 86 1.46 22.97
10 HJ Nielsen 28.53 73 2.43 19.81
11 JR Doran 29.04 71 2.22 18.71

Selected in Moneyball Test XI: AT Carey

Selected in Moneyball Squad: JJ Peirson

Carey holds onto his spot as the Test wicketkeeper despite a poor series with the bat in India (56 runs @ 9.33).

Uncapped Queenslander Jimmy Peirson has been very consistent with the bat in recent years, with three straight Shield seasons of at least 400 runs. He is also known to be strong with the gloves with his 3.79 D/M ranking behind only Paine.

Peirson would be a fine choice as a backup to Carey and could step in if Carey’s lean run with the bat continues.

If selectors opt for a specialist keeper as backup, it will be a tight call between Peirson and Inglis, who has a brilliant white-ball record.

However, in 2019, occasional keeper Wade was selected as the backup whilst also being in the XI as a specialist batsman.

If the selectors again opt for a specialist batsman who can keep if required, it will be likely be either Handscomb or Bancroft.

Moneyball Squad for WTC Final and Ashes Series

1. UT Khawaja
2. MS Wade
3. M Labuschagne
4. SPD Smith
5. TM Head
6. C Green
7. AT Carey (WK)
8. MG Neser
9. PJ Cummins
10. NM Lyon
11. JR Hazelwood

Reserves: DA Warner, MA Harris, AM Hardie, JJ Peirson (WK), SM Boland, MA Starc, JS Paris, MP Kuhnemann