Australia and India are set to lock horns at The Oval to determine the victor of the 2021-2023 World Test Championship cycle in what looks set to be an intriguing match-up.

The neutral venue of The Oval presents interesting narratives for the two sides heading into Wednesday’s opening day.

Will Australia be able to finally defeat a foe that they haven’t beaten in a series since 2014/15?

Will India be able to perform against Australia in a country where their players traditionally have not performed well?

Australia squad: Pat Cummins (c), Scott Boland, Alex Carey (wk), Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Travis Head, Josh Inglis (wk), Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Steve Smith (vc), Mitchell Starc, David Warner

India squad: Rohit Sharma (c), Shubman Gill, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane, Ishan Kishan, KS Bharat (wk), Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel, Shardul Thakur, Mohammad Shami, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Jaydev Unadkat

Head-to-Head

The contests between India and Australia in the Test arena have been hard fought but India have dominated in recent years.

Since 2016, India have had the upper hand winning by a narrow margin of 2-1 in each of the last four Test series played between the two countries.

Their recent success has closed the gap in their overall head-to-head record where Australia lead 40-27 since Indian independence.

In the past decade, India has a 10-5 record against Australia. In this time span, Australia have drawn with India as many times as they have beaten them (five times each). Only six members of Australia’s last Test series victory in 2014/15 are in their 15-man WTC final squad – David Warner, Steve Smith, Mitchell Marsh, Mitchell Marsh, Josh Hazelwood, and Nathan Lyon.

Injuries a thorn in India’s side

The deep bench strength of the Indian squad will again be needed with a number of players in India’s best XI out due to injury, headlined by Jasprit Bumrah.

In India’s last tour of England, he was the pick of the bowlers taking 23 wickets at 22.47 to be the series leading wicket-taker.

While India will normally have confidence that their strong pace stable can cover for their star bowler’s absence in most parts of the world, England perhaps is not one of those parts.

In India’s WTC squad, only one quick Umesh Yadav has an average under 30 in England. India will also be missing the destructive Rishabh Pant to injury who was the world’s best wicketkeeper/batsman before his car accident.

Another injury victim in KL Rahul is also a big out as he was India’s third-highest run-scorer on their previous tour of England where he amassed 315 runs at 39.37.

Promising middle-order batter Shreyas Iyer, who averages 44.4 in Tests, will also be out with a back injury.

Hazlewood injury robs Aussies of experience

While the Australian side is far more settled than its Indian counterpart, the Aussies are facing an injury blow of their own with Josh Hazlewood ruled out of the final because of side soreness.

Australia’s reserves seamers in Scott Boland and Michael Neser are capable in their own right, but the experience and capability of Hazlewood who averages 23.58 with ball in hand in England will be missed by the men wearing the baggy green.

How will players fare with IPL transition?

A big question for the WTC Final will be over how well players will be able to transition back from the IPL after a short turnaround.

Ravindra Jadeja, Ajinkya Rahane, Shubman Gill, and Mohammed Shami took part in the IPL final last week and have had a short turnaround to travel to England and play in the final.

Cameron Green, Rohit Sharma, and Ishan Kishan played their last IPL game on May 26 while Virat Kohli, David Warner Umesh Yadav, and Shardul Thakur had slightly longer to prepare after their sides were unable to make the finals.

Australia will have the advantage in terms of preparation with Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne have been playing on the county circuit.

Meanwhile, Cheteshwar Pujara is the only Indian in the WTC final squad to have spent the past couple of months playing in England. The likes of Cummins, Khawaja, Head, and Lyon have had the luxury of being able to rest up after the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and prepare at home with red-ball cricket as the main focus.

The Oval not a happy hunting ground

The Oval has not been a happy hunting ground for the Aussies. In their 38 Tests there, the Aussies have only managed to win seven times and have lost on 17 occasions, with 14 draws.

Since Australia’s last Test series victory in England in 2001, they have only won at The Oval once when they hammered England by an innings and 46 runs in 2015.

India have not fared all too well at The Oval either – in 14 Tests at the South London ground, they have managed to secure victory twice while losing five and drawing seven times.

They have won at The Oval more recently than Australia with a 157-run victory in 2021. Their only other win came in 1971 where they won by four wickets.

Pitch preparation a mystery

Traditionally, The Oval Test is typically played in September at the end of the English Test summer. This calls into question how similar The Oval pitch will be in comparison to when Tests at the ground are usually played.

Will it still be the batting paradise it is known for or will it be a different beast entirely?

To get a possible inkling of how The Oval plays at this time of the year, a look at the first-class matches played at the ground from 2012 to 2022 reveals not many are played in June because of the T20 Blast.

But when you look at how the pitches played in May and July, from 83 innings in this period, The Oval remained largely batting friendly with the average runs per wicket being 37.80.

A total of 23,287 runs were scored with 616 wickets taken. There were 17 instances where teams scored over 400 and 12 of these scores came from the side batting in the first innings.

The highest score was Surrey’s 7-673 in the first innings of a county game in late June last year. The game ended in a draw with Kent scoring 331 before being asked to follow on where they made 4-361.

In comparison, there were 13 occasions where teams were out for under 200. The lowest score came from Somerset who only managed to make 69 in the third innings looking to score quickly after making 429 in their first innings in a July game in 2021.

Can Smith maintain his UK form?

One of the biggest differences between the two sides is that Australia has the prolific record of Steve Smith in England. Smith has by far the most runs scored and the highest average in English conditions out of any batter in the final.

He has 694 more than second-best Virat Kohli while having done it in one less innings. His average at 59.55 is 9.13 more than Marnus Labuschagne’s. What’s more, is that The Oval is a happy hunting ground for Smith where his record is Bradman incarnate.

In three Tests at the venue, Smith has scored 391 runs at a ridiculous average of 97.75. In 35 innings against the Indians, he has scored 1887 runs at an average of 65.06 with 8 centuries and eight 50s.

England stands as the final frontier for Usman Khawaja. He’s been able to prove his worth and do away with the home-track bully narrative with an excellent record in the subcontinent.

After having proved his worth in overseas conditions, England is one of the few nations where he hasn’t been at his best. In 12 innings, he averages 19.66.

Travis Head’s maiden Ashes tour was unspectacular. He averaged 27.28 in four Tests before getting dropped.

Notably, Head’s more defensive approach as can be seen by his strike rate of 48.84 was markedly different from his current successful method. Since 2021, Head has averaged 52.52 while bludgeoning the ball at a strike rate of 80.69.

Labuschagne in seven innings in the 2019 Ashes racked up 353 runs at 50.42 to be the fourth-highest run-getter in the series. His brilliant Ashes performance came on the back of sizzling form with Glamorgan in the second division of county cricket where he scored 1114 runs in 18 innings at an average of 65.52. This county season, he has tallied 502 runs from eight innings at 71.71.

Will Gill’s emergence continue?

Shubman Gill is India’s next big thing and has had an incredible 2023. In ODIs, he has scored 624 runs at an average of 78.00 with a strike rate of 117.51 which included a double century against New Zealand. That double century made him the youngest batsman to score a double century in ODIs in men’s international cricket.

In February, he scored his maiden T20I century against the Kiwis. His 126 from 63 deliveries stands as the highest individual score by an Indian in a T20I.

After replacing KL Rahul as an opener, Gill made the most of a desolate Ahmedabad pitch to score 128 in the second innings of the final Test in Australia’s tour. In the IPL, he scored 890 runs, the second-most in an IPL season only behind Virat Kohli’s 973 in 2016. If Gill can continue his remarkable run in the WTC final, then India will be well on their way to holding up the ICC Test Mace.

Cummins the big difference

The major separator between the two nations on the bowling front is Pat Cummins, especially in the absence of Bumrah. He had a remarkable 2019 Ashes campaign to be the leading wicket-taker in the series with 29 at an astounding 19.62.

Without Bumrah, only Yadav has a bowling average under 25, yet he’s only played twice in England.

Ravichandran Ashwin has a great record in England with an average of 28.11 and will need to play a key role if India are to win the final. However, India need one of their quicks to take the game by the scruff of the neck given the conditions.

Can India oull off another backs-to-the-wall win?

India perhaps may look weaker on paper, but if any nation had the ability to be able to cover for the absence of multiple players, it is Rohit Sharma’s team.

They are no stranger to pulling off victories in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds against Australia.

India were triumphant in their tour of Australia in the 2020-2021 summer with an undermanned team after a number of star players and even their replacements had been ruled out from the side.

By the time the final Test at the Gabba came around, only four of what was seen at the time as India’s best XI were playing.

India had to recover from a disastrous first Test where they were bundled out for 36 in the third innings.

To claw their way back to a series victory was in itself a feat of mental strength even without factoring in the absence of their best players.

Remarkably, this ragtag Indian outfit was the first side to beat Australia at the Gabba since 1988 and also became the first Asian side to win a Test at the ground. No matter the circumstances, the Indian side seems to turn up to the occasion against Australia as of late.

The WTC final shapes up to be a riveting contest between one of the fiercest modern rivals from a purely cricketing performance standpoint with it likely to be another chapter in a series of close contests between Australia and India.