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Opinion
The Demons are tracking along very nicely in their bid to win the flag in 2023.
Leading up to the ultimate clash of heavyweights, the two best teams in the league play on the Monday of Round 13, it is a simple matter of when, not if, Melbourne makes a statement to the rest of the competition.
They’ve certainly been questioned, have the Demons. Their perceived softer draw has them inside the top four.
They’ve lost to Brisbane and Port Adelaide. They fell to the Bombers and Dockers, too.
Let’s not be mistaken here. This isn’t an example of a soft-track bully and losing against those who could potentially be contenders, or finalists. Only one of their losses has been by more than 11 points.
Of course, this isn’t the dominant team we saw only a few years ago on their way to a flag, the one that many thought could be dynastical. In that way, the AFL should be delighted with the evenness of the competition.
But this is a team that is learning on the run, with plenty to take out of its losses, even more than the victories.
Coach Simon Goodwin is letting this team play different styles for minutes, quarters and full matches.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
For instance, Melbourne isn’t a notoriously dominant team in contested ball, but when tested against Port Adelaide and Fremantle, they operated at a near 50 pe cent contested-possession winning number – well up on their 39.1 per cent this season and 38.5 per cent in 2022. These games shifted in momentum but the Demons experienced periods of dominance within, despite the final result. Good signs.
Sure, they’ve generally beaten the lowly rated teams, but in doing so, we’ve seen changes within games. Harrison Petty playing forward, Tom Sparrow as the No.1 centre bounce midfielder. Rotations of Trent Rivers and Jake Bowey higher up the ground to maximise their use inside 50. Kysaiah Pickett minutes on the ball.
Really though, to be a contender, you must be well-rounded. Defensively sound, offensively damaging and now, more than ever, no weak spots to be exploited.
Halfway through the season, no team has got the ball inside 50 more than the Demons on average and no team gets more intercepts.
They’re ranked third for marks inside 50s, despite their tall targets this season generally being a mix of a ruckman, a debuting key forward and a defender thrown into attack.
Drill down that statistic and their top five are Bayley Fritsch (25), Kysaiah Pickett (18), Kade Chandler (14), Jacob Van Rooyen (14) and Christian Petracca (13).
The four players below 189 centimetres are also the leading goal assist talliers.
Certainly, the Demons have been boosted by the fact they’re the most accurate team in front of goal this season, but they’ve improved their inside 50 numbers and their efficiency at hitting the scoreboard in 2023, a sure sign of legitimacy.
Defensively, Melbourne remain one of the most miserly defences in the league and restrict their opponents quite effectively. Only the Power and the Bombers, when they got the ball outside and moved it directly, were able to overwhelm the Demons.
They’ve improved their defence in transition, namely by increasing their forward pressure numbers, but also by having more exposure to defensive sided midfielders at stoppages.
More emphasis has been placed on having more numbers higher up the ground – it leaves the defence exposed if the opposition can win effective clearances and get it long, but it improves field position offensively on neutral balls.
Melbourne likes to generally defend as a group, with Jake Lever or Steven May coming across to help. Yet in one-on-ones, every Demon defender is either rated above average or elite.
This includes the trio of Trent Rivers, Jake Bowey and Judd McVee, who seldom lose battles they’ve been tasked with and provide excellent output in intercepting and rebounding.
A quick word on McVee, a 19-year-old rookie who has played every game this season. He’s the sort of versatile medium-sized defender who does the right things at the right time. Glue guys like this are important to team success.
It’s a strong defended-minded unit that has only got more upside now that Christian Salem is back to be the counter-attack’s chief facilitator. It frees up Angus Brayshaw to roam and rotate with the half-backs.
Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver are an incredible duo, the best pair of players in the competition. They remain the point of difference that separates Melbourne from other contenders.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
And while they remain entirely as the absolute match-winners for the team, it’s the rotations around the ground, it’s having two true wingmen to stretch the width of the ground and allow for there to be more space to gain metreage, it’s the likes of Alex Neal-Bullen keeping his pressure on all the way to the defensive arc that allows for this team to truly function at its peak.
Not that we’ve seen the best of Melbourne yet, anyway.
There’s a lot of room to work with. Fritsch is truly an incredible player, as is Pickett, but there’s more offensive output to be unlocked in this group. Whether that comes from a returning key forward or maybe more Petracca time in the forward 50 remains to be seen, but that’s exciting.
Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy have been a positive combination, but they’re quite obviously being managed at the moment and we may not see the best of the duo until finals time. They free each other up, Gawn’s impact around the ground and as a forward target is a wonderful thing for the Demons, they just don’t use him enough.
Grundy, too – he’s an above average contributor to scoring chains throughout his career, and more time on ground would help him get more involved.
So far this season we’ve seen different versions of the Demons – we’ve seen dominance, we’ve seen uncontested going-through-the-motions, we’ve seen contested versions, we’ve seen brutal tackling, we’ve seen young players given the keys and we’ve seen the usual stars step up.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
What we’re yet to see is the final product, a team that has everything clicking at the right time.
The aim of the home-and-away season is a top four finish. Get that double chance, try to get that home final but secure yourselves multiple opportunities in September.
In 2022, Chris Scott held his cards close to his chest for the first three months of the season, playing different styles and players in different positions, which saw a variety of different results. He brought them all together about halfway through the season and the Cats didn’t lose again.
Whether Goodwin is as good a coach as Scott isn’t necessarily the question, but the similarity in Melbourne’s different approach on a weekly basis is encouraging.
Consider all three sectors of the ground, consider the different styles at play, consider the numbers around the ball at times and the numbers pushed into defence. Consider the fact that it’s all in a bid to take away any exploitable paths.
Too many people get caught up in the immediacy of results, but winning a premiership is the execution of a long-term plan, rather than a reaction to a win or a loss.
Melbourne’s playing the long game and they’re right on track to win the 2023 AFL premiership.