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Opinion
Both sides look pretty evenly matched but I think as long as Australia’s openers deliver, they will win an Ashes series in England for the first time since 2001.
The Aussies have the world’s top three batters in their middle order, a rising star in Cameron Green as their all-rounder, a very good wicketkeeper in Alex Carey and options galore with their world-class pace attack.
And then there’s the GOAT. I think Nathan Lyon will be a massive point of difference between the two sides with England having to bring in Moeen Ali out of retirement after Jack Leach was ruled out of the series with his back injury.
Having just touched down in England, the hype is huge. The Ashes is all over the newspapers and the TV over here and I get the sense that the English fans have got a lot of affection for this team for the way they’ve breathed life into Test cricket over the past 12 months under Brendon McCullum and Ben Stokes.
They’re really popular – Bazball has resonated with the fans, generating a lot of interest but high expectations as well.
I’m excited to see how they go about this new style. They seem so relaxed – they’ve been up to Scotland playing golf, having a few beers and doing some team bonding. That’s a million miles away from previous regimes like when Andy Flower would have them in pretty much an army boot camp.
And they’re a confident bunch, which was shown by Harry Brook, who has had an unbelievable start to the first seven Tests of his career, not being afraid to come out in his media conference and say he wanted to take Lyon on.
Years ago if a young guy said that you’d say pull your head in but you can say that when you’re averaging 81 with a strike rate of 99.
The main query for both teams is their opening batters. That hasn’t been a strength of England for several years, probably since Alastair Cook retired from Test cricket in 2018.
And for David Warner and Usman Khawaja, the English conditions haven’t been a happy hunting ground for them.
Usman Khawaja and David Warner. (Photo by Ryan Pierse – CA/Cricket Australia via Getty Images/Getty Images)
Uzzy has had an unreal couple of years and I feel like the ceiling that the Australian openers can get to is higher than England’s with Zak Crawley and Ben Duckett.
We’re still not quite sure how the pitch is going to play – Andrew McDonald said Edgbaston looks like it’ll be pretty fast but if it moves around, the Ashes could be decided on middle-order runs and we’ve got the three top-ranked Test batters in the world now with Travis Head now up the top with Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith.
The last time we were here at Birmingham, Smithy was at his masterful best with two hundreds and he’s coming off another one last week at The Oval in the World Test Championship final against India.
It was overshadowed a bit by Heady’s ton but Smith’s one was simply a well constructed Test century. He did the hard yards early and then got going, just accumulating runs in his own way.
And it’s great to still see him being so upset when he gets out even with three figures on the scoreboard.
I can’t see any reason why he can’t continue his success over here, particularly at this venue.
Green’s going to have an impact with bat and ball. In the all-rounder’s battle, the big question is how much is Stokes going to bowl.
The young Aussie all-rounder is bowling with genuine pace and tremendous bounce, and if he does get a breakthrough, Pat Cummins will have no hesitation in keeping him on for a longer spell.
That’s a role that Stokes played earlier in his career when he’d bowl 20 overs an innings but he’s been affected by injuries and has he got one more series in him where he can consistently chime in with wickets.
Carey versus Jonny Bairstow when it comes to the wicketkeepers is an interesting one. Bairstow got Bazball going at the start of the last English summer with his blazing tons but he’s been out for a while with a broken leg. That hundred he made against Australia at the SCG shows how dangerous he can be if he gets going.
And with Joe Root, Stokes and Brook, they can not only get going quickly but make bulk runs, however the question that’s being tossed around in every interview is will it work against Australia’s high-quality pace attack and I’ve got my doubts that it can be sustainable.
There’s talk that their batters will try to walk down the wicket to guys like Scott Boland, Cummins and Josh Hazlewood in this series to try to put them off their length but that’s a risky tactic and you’ve got to be very skilful to do that.
Scott Boland celebrates with teammates. (Photo by Gareth Copley-ICC/ICC via Getty Images)
With Boland, Starc and Hazlewood, one of them is going to miss out in the first Test and I know the Aussies hate the word rotation but I think they’ll be doing a bit of that this series with the quicks.
I wrote the other day that Boland has to play given his form against India last week so for the variety he offers as a left-armer, I’d probably lean towards Starc for this match.
And he’s clearly the best batter of the bunch – we’d have a pretty long tail if Cummins is coming in at eight with Lyon, Hazlewood and Boland to follow.
England have revealed their XI with Stuart Broad playing ahead of Mark Wood but if I was in Cummins’ shoes, I’d keep them guessing up until the toss of the coin about which way he’s going to go.
Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad have been absolute legends but at 41 and 37, are they going to have their usual impact if the wickets are flat? The older you are, the more likely you are to pick up injuries.
Ollie Robinson (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
I think Ollie Robinson is going to be a danger for them with the ball and they don’t miss out on anything when Wood plays but they can’t afford any more injuries because their fast bowler depth is starting to really be tested.
Australia have an embarrassment of riches when you think Starc has over 300 Test wickets, Hazlewood’s 250-plus and Boland’s averaging 14 and one of them could miss out, and there’s still Michael Neser up their sleeve as well. It’s insane depth.
It’s quite hot over here and the Edgbaston pitch could bake and that’s where I think Lyon will come into his own to give Australia a clear-cut advantage in the spin department.
He bowled beautifully in the WTC final and took 6-49 at this ground last time whereas Moeen is someone the Aussies have taken down over the years. He doesn’t get wickets or build pressure.
I can’t see there being any draws unless the matches are rain affected because England advance the games so rapidly.
But I just think Australia have got a better balanced team and that should be enough to wrap up the Ashes.