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We’re two-thirds through the AFL season, and I still don’t have a clue what to make of it all.
There are three clear frontrunners in Collingwood, Port Adelaide and then Brisbane as the third seed, but all have felt vulnerable in the last month or two. That’s not to say anything of the chasing pack, which leaves every spot from 4th to 15th totally open.
It’s chaos, and a nightmare for tipsters – and Round 17 promises to be another tough one. Get an 8 or even a 9 here, and you’ll probably jump a few spots… provided, of course, you’re brave enough to pick one of the four outsiders with a genuine chance of saluting!
Last week: 7
Richmond, Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide, Fremantle
After the season I’ve had on the tipping front, I’ll take a 7 and reverse-jinxing my team to a win (yes, I am taking credit for that) every day of the week. This week, though, promises to be tougher, with four games that could genuinely go either way.
Let’s get the easy ones out of the way first. Even if I thought the Bulldogs were capable of upsetting Collingwood, fear of my tipping curse bringing them down again would convince me to back against them. Then there’s the three bottom teams in Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast, who you can ink in for losses to GWS, Geelong and Brisbane respectively and not have to worry too much – of the three, the Hawks are the only even remote chance of an upset.
You can also back Port Adelaide to knock over Gold Coast very safely – the Suns will probably bring a fight after a week of Stuart Dew scrutiny, but they haven’t beaten the Power nor won in Adelaide since 2011, and they won’t be breaking that streak – nor Port’s 12-game winning one – here.
On to the toughies, then. Thursday night will at least be captivating if not high-quality – the Swans and Tigers have been this season’s biggest sliders, and it’s most likely season over for the loser here. I’m going for home ground advantage and Richmond here, but not confidently: for probably his last game at the MCG, Lance Franklin won’t want to go quietly into the night.
Another season-on-the-line match finishes the round, with Fremantle hosting Carlton. I’m backing the Dockers in at home – they’ve struggled recently on the road but have enjoyed far more success at Optus Stadium, and I’m just not ready to trust the Blues again yet.
Things are less final for the loser of St Kilda and Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, but it could be season-defining all the same: win, and one of these out-of-form teams will finish the round in the top four. The Saints have been much better at Marvel, and no Bayley Fritsch is a problem for the Dees. All the same, though, I only think one of these teams is a premiership contender, and it’s the one with Christian Petracca in it.
Lastly, the game of the round is on Sunday afternoon at Docklands – the newfound steel of Essendon against the explosive exhilaration of Adelaide. You can basically lock in the Bombers to win this one, because I like the Crows – the Dons don’t seem to have the key backs to stop Taylor Walker, Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty, and with no Sam Draper the Crows’ midfield has a key edge.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 6
Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Essendon, Fremantle
The season is tight and tipping can be volatile – if you let it be.
Really, this is what we want from footy: almost every team is fighting for a spot in September, and there’s still a little unpredictability to ensure things are spiced up.
The Tigers are blooding some debutants while the Swans are looking to get stronger. Sydney has a good recent record at the MCG against Richmond, and quite frankly, hedging emotional bets here is the smart play – so the away team to win here.
Could Ed Richards be the difference for the Bulldogs? It’s what everyone seems to be hoping for as they battle the unstoppable Magpies. The game being at Marvel is particularly helpful for the home team too. It’s just… can we fully trust the Bulldogs to pull off the upset?
I think they have a real chance to win this one – but I’m just not convinced enough to tip it.
The absence of Josh Dunkley for Brisbane could see this contest against the Eagles dip below a 20-goal margin… maybe.
On the flip side, the Giants have suddenly emerged as a smoky for a finals spot and this elite defence we’ve spoken about a bit has finally started to get a bit of credit – I’m still trying to get the Connor Idun All-Australian bandwagon up and running. They should handle the James Sicily-less Hawks easily.
If the Saints are going to actually pull their fingers out at some stage, against a depleted, out of sorts Melbourne is the right time, and Marvel is the right place to do it. Still not tipping them, though.
For the 17th time this season, Stewart Dew has been sacked and replaced by Damien Hardwick. It’s groundhog day, isn’t it? They’ll likely lose to Port Adelaide, but each time Dew’s been under this sort of scrutiny, his team has stood up for him. I’ll watch with interest.
The Cats will win easily against North, but I’m backing Luke Davies-Uniacke to get the three votes.
It’s a massive game on Sunday afternoon. The Crows’ upside is enormous, but they’ve got an awful record against Essendon and at Marvel. They simply have to win this – I think whether Sam Draper is fit will have a big impact. Without knowing at time of writing, I’ll go the Bombers again, and let a kick after the siren ruin my tips.
Finally, the Dockers can and should beat Carlton. It’s Flagmantle season.
Sam Weideman rues a missed shot on goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 8
Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Adelaide, Fremantle
I nabbed an 8 last week – plus the enmity of half of Australia for thinking that Pat Cummins should have withdrawn his appeal on Jonny Bairstow – by keeping it simple, so that’s the plan again this week.
Thursday night comes at a bad time for Richmond, with Jayden Short joining the long list of outs and a week after copping a hiding at the hands of Brisbane. Sydney surely can’t kick as badly as they did against Geelong two weeks in a row, and they’ve got a good record against the Tigers at the ‘G. Where’s Sam Lloyd when you need him?
With Jordan De Goey back the Magpies should be good enough in midfield to match the Bulldogs – and the Dogs just won’t be able to stop the Pies’ rampant ball movement given their issues with team defence.
Brisbane will beat West Coast by however much they want to – my gut feel is they’ll coast a bit and win by nine or ten goals after being five up at quarter time – while with no James Sicily, Hawthorn will almost certainly not be beating GWS at home.
Gold Coast just have to put up more of a fight against Port Adelaide than they did Collingwood last night – but even if they do, the Power won’t be losing at home. More interesting is St Kilda hosting Melbourne under the roof – the Saints have played Marvel Stadium well this year, but if they can only beat West Coast by 8 points, surely not even a Bayley Frtisch-less Melbourne can drop this eight-point game.
Sunday starts boring but gets interesting fast. To start, it’s Geelong by how much against North Melbourne at the Cattery; then, though, we have Adelaide travelling to Marvel to face Essendon. In Adelaide it’d be the Crows every time, but on the road they’ve struggled all year. Memories of them pushing Collingwood to the brink two weeks ago have tempted me to back them to break their away-from-home hoodoo.
Finally, Fremantle just have to be beating Carlton at home to stay in the race for the eight. It’s that time of year where you can start ruling teams out of finals, and it feels like season over for the loser here – despite their good recent form, I reckon it’ll be the Blues who can start planning for September holidays.
Tom Liberatore of the Bulldogs kicks over Jordan De Goey of Collingwood. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Last week: 7
Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Essendon, Fremantle
It was good to see the league (and the tips) return to some sense of normalcy last week, as a return to a full nine matches earned me respectable 7. Thank goodness.
I expect tonight’s clash to immediately rock the ship, though. Sydney were lucky to escape with two points in their draw with the Cats, while the Tigers lost momentum with a loss to the Lions. The duo are both ostensibly in the frame for finals, meaning this is a real do-or-die kind of clash. It sounds like a recipe for chaos, and one in which I’m more confident in the Swans.
Tomorrow night, and the Doggies are probably the Pies’ toughest opponent in recent weeks, while forcing the Pies to travel the five kilometres across Melbourne’s CBD to Marvel Stadium is horrifying (“won’t somebody think of the childr- uh, Magpies”).
Sarcasm aside, the Pies are going to lose one this year, and this is as good a chance as any for a team to puncture their armour. The Doggies’ inconsistency is a worry, though, and again, it’s near impossible to rationally tip against Collingwood.
Headed into Saturday, the Lions are going to maul the Eagles – and I’m not sure even the visitors replicating their much improved performance last week is going to push Brisbane as much as it pushed the Saints. Straight after, neither the Hawks nor the Giants are bastions of consistency, though I trust GWS more, especially at home.
Saturday night’s Saints and Demons clash, if replicating the respective Round 16 form of both teams, is going to be hilariously bad. The Saints have adopted a strategy of Bradburying their way into finals – yep, they’re somehow still fifth headed into Round 17 – while the Dees were terrible last week. Pit them against each other though, and Melbourne’s my hesitant tip.
Next up, Port hosting the Suns. I think some of the criticism of the Suns has been unfounded this year, and it’s nice they’re getting the primetime exposure, but if they struggled against the Pies, they’re very little chance against the Power in Adelaide.
Sunday seems not at all simple. Well, the opening game is: the reigning premiers aren’t fantastic this season, but the Cats aren’t ‘lose to North Melbourne’ bad.
Essendon lost in the most Essendon-y way possible last weekend, but I’m backing them to upset the Crows – this should be a cracking game regardless.
And in a very, very heart-over-head tip, Freo should defeat Carlton, even sans-Nat Fyfe.
Am I confident? Nope. Is this gonna backfire? Knowing my team, yep. Can they actually do it? Honestly, yes.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
| Round 17 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCH vs SYD | RCH | SYD | SYD | SYD | RCH |
| WB vs COL | COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| BL vs WCE | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| GWS vs HAW | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| STK vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| PA vs GCS | PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| GEE vs NM | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| ESS vs ADE | ADE | ESS | ADE | ESS | ESS |
| FRE vs CAR | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| LAST WEEK | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 84 | 93 | 91 | 88 | 95 |
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