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One of the worst ways to predict a match between two relatively equal teams is to try to select a composite. If one team has two demonstrably weak players but has slight edges in thirteen over a team with no weak members, a false superiority will appear on the joint team sheet.
Even if a team has eight or nine superior players, it is often the depth of the weakness in a few others which loses the Test. If one of those weak players is the goalkicker and the other is his backup, the team with thirteen of the players on the sheet is going to struggle in a tight Test. This weekend, a strong team takes the field at Mount Smart without a proper kicker, canceling out many other edges.
Rugby is made up of zones and pods, so a properly matched midfield or balanced loose trio can defeat a team with a star twelve and seven mismatched with mates. There is no one thing that matters; it is the whole.
When the All Blacks play the Springboks nowadays, there is little in it. In the last eight Tests, the record is knotted up, with a handful of moments separating winner from loser. Both have made comebacks. Both has lost matches they should have won. Both believe they are best.
New Zealand is always favoured in New Zealand, even if Ireland returned tomorrow to play another series. The reason is rational: they almost always win at home. But this Springbok team will be an underdog with a good look at a good bone.
The visitors still boast the stingiest defence around, with maxed out line speed promoting chaos, and this week it will be Makazole Mapimpi chasing instead of Canan Moodie: next level up on repelling lactic acid and tacklers. In 2019 Mapimpi could be targeted by Richie Mo’unga. Now, he is a no-go zone.
(Photo by Getty Images)
The Boks will also provide the All Blacks’ improved front rows their best scrum examination, courtesy of Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx, Vincent Koch, and Thomas du Toit, adjudicated by a French referee best known for his fight against the clock. Monsieur Mathieu Raynal has never shied away from rewarding a dominant scrum an easy entry into the red zone or a shot at posts.
When Tamaiti Williams comes on, he is likely to face redoubtable and Mr Incredible look alike Koch. Just as Tom Hooper had a baptism of fire up against Pieter-Steph du Toit, the young loosehead will know he has earned his cap by the end. The All Blacks will want to be in single figures on penalties; not by “avoiding penalties,” but by being accurate in all they do.
Plus, the visitors have been the least pinged top team for years, but force more penalties than anyone except France.
However, South Africa have chosen to keep their recognised kicker, Manie Libbok, on the bench. This mean Cheslin Kolbe, Faf de Klerk and Damian Willemse have to find the target between them (left, right, far). That was a recipe for loss in Dublin in 2022.
The Boks are perhaps the only team able to slow down All Black ball from being whipped instantly from the deck to channel three by silky Aaron Smith. Last week, he averaged clearance from ruck in 2.5 seconds (a full second faster than the Boks, who were second fastest of the four teams playing).
With 12 players or more capable of getting over the ball legally, the world champions could add a lethal second to Smith’s and Finlay Christie’s ball, bringing the game into an arm wrestle.
If it is box, chase, kick, scrum, lineout, maul, bombs by squads and squads of bombs, and a few moments of madness by Willie le Roux or Willemse allowing Kolbe and Mapimpi to finish, an upset is brewing.
I have depicted this seesaw in a Tweet:.
In the last few years, the Boks have owned second halves and their job is just to start well, hang in, and close. Not often pinged more than their foes, they do the expected well.
New Zealand do the unexpected better, but will still have to find parity or close to it in the pack or it will be asking too much of Rieko Ioane and Will Jordan to pull rabbits out of hats again.
The midfield pits two big units (a battleship and a destroyer) against a savvy submarine partnership. Jordie Barrett may not be the most natural twelve (see the Super Rugby Pacific finals) but he has no fear of losing. It is the first Test up for Damian de Allende who is in top form as well, with his old pal Lukhanyo Am finding his feet after injury layoff. Whose centres hold will go a long way to determine the winner of this Test.
Makazole Mapimpi will want to stake his claim to the jersey as Canan Moodie continues to press, and Kolbe will want to stave off the charge of Kurt-Lee Arendse.
With Sam Whitelock out, Scott Barrett reverts to his proper position and he will face one of rugby’s best but most understated players, Lood de Jager. Stopping the big lock is the job of all, but at lineout time, Barrett is a proper pest and will be looking to pick off an Mbonambi or Malcolm Marx wobbler.
Both teams can put four or five lineout options on the pitch at one time, if the number eights count.
This game within a game, as with scrums, often changes the course of Tests between the old rivals.
Dalton Papali’i and Tupou Vaa’i need to make statements to secure the last lock and loosie spots, and the Shannon Frizzell versus Franco Mostert/du Toit workfest appeals.
It is not an understatement to say the timing of substitutions will be pivotal: when do Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus bring on Libbok, given the 6-2 format? Who does Braydon Ennor replace? Where do Willemse and the Barretts fit at the very end?
The home team should win by about four points, because their front five is hard enough, their senior leaders are calm under pressure, they finish line breaks more efficiently than the Boks and with more experienced game managers at 9, 10 and 15, should find their way into the 22 more. Should.
But there is a chance for the brawny their own errors creep in late, if the scoreboard is staring them in the face and the scrum creaks, and they lose touch out wide against the deadly Bok finishers.
If one wants to pick a composite team it is clear the best pack is the Boks; the All Blacks backs take it. Same as it ever was.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.