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It’s been a topsy-turvy season for tippers all around the country, and Round 18 was no different.
If you backed the favourites, then chances are you were smiling at the end of it; but if you thought it was the week to go against the grain with a roughie, then unless it was GWS you probably were left disappointed.
With five rounds to go, there’s still time for a rise up the rankings, and in a season which has proved just as fickle as tipping it has been, there’s no telling what combination of teams will get you that ultra-rare perfect 9.
Last week: 4
Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda
A four last week. Yikes.
Fun fact: of the 28 games decided by under 10 points this season, excluding the two draws, I’ve tipped just 10 right. It’s been killing me all season long, and I’m sick of it.
So once again, I’m trying to use my powers for good, and tipping Essendon to beat my Bulldogs on Friday night. Fingers crossed, after tipping the Dogs and seeing them lose to Sydney, this works as well as it did for me when I reverse-jinxed them against Carlton and Fremantle.
I’ve gone for home ground advantage across the rest of the round: Brisbane, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, GWS and Melbourne are all my fancies to beat Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, Gold Coast and Adelaide respectively on their own turf.
The toughest ones of those to tip are the Dockers and Power: despite losing Sean Darcy, I like Freo’s chances at home, and despite some decent recent form from the Swans, can’t help not quite trusting them yet, away from the SCG most of all.
That just leaves the three bottom sides to tip against: Carlton will poleaxe West Coast, St Kilda should take care of North Melbourne but it won’t be pretty, and while Richmond will have it tough against Hawthorn at the MCG, if they’re serious about finals they’ll find a way.
(Photo by Rob Blakers/Getty Images)
Last week: 6
Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane, Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda
Every round is defining the season in a different way and folks, I am absolutely here for it.
Another huge weekend of footy is upon us and with the fate of so many clubs on the line, we’ll soak in every second we can.
What an enormous game to kick off the round. Both the Bombers and Bulldogs are coming off disappointing results and need to win to keep their spot in the top eight. There’s more trust in the Dogs, but the upside in Peter Wright is huge. He could win this game off his own boot.
Then you’ve got the Tigers playing the Hawks. Perhaps it’s the pessimist in me, but Sam Mitchell has his team playing well and is in complete control at the moment. I’ll tip Richmond, but with little confidence. How about 5 per cent confidence in the Tigers, then 195 per confidence in Carlton taking care of West Coast?
Another week, another example of the Lions’ flaky flag credentials. They’re trying to use fake IDs to get into the premiership club and that won’t cut it in September. But Brisbane rarely lose at home, and while the Cats are in their groove, it’s hard to tip them up there.
Without Sean Darcy, things just got a whole lot tougher for the Dockers. It feels as though whoever loses this match may end up finishing in the bottom four, which is an extraordinary thought given how bullish many were at the start of the season. I expect both teams to bounce back in 2024 but for now, it has to be a tip for the Swans.
Collingwood has won its last seven games at Adelaide Oval, but none of those were against Port Adelaide. Not since 2017 have these two tussled there, and this top of the table clash should be an absolute ripper.
The Magpies are untouchable – only something drastic happening would cost them the flag. But they won’t win this week, simply because they don’t need to.
Sunday’s fixture is a little less fun, but we’ll find ways to enjoy ourselves. The Giants are the smoky of the competition and they’re squeezing the opposition into low scores. They’ll win here too if they can limit the Suns’ efficient ball movement.
Melbourne needs to be aware of the Crows’ response to losing at home, but with the window for a potential second-place finish still open by winning the rest of their games, they can’t be scared.
Finally, who really cares about the Sunday twilight game this week? I don’t know how the Saints are still sixth on the ladder and chances are they’ll be the same, if not higher by the end of the round. Truly extraordinary.
Jamie Elliott and Josh Daicos of the Magpies celebrate a goal. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Last week: 5
Western Bulldogs, Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda
Who knows what this week has in store, because last round was dicey.
I tipped the Bulldogs last week and it came unstuck, so they should probably consider this clash against Essendon to be my last show of faith in them. I still think they’re good enough to play finals, and at Docklands should be too strong for the Bombers – but if they lose this, then they’ll probably need to beat GWS AND Richmond in the next two weeks to make it, which will make it tough.
We can speed-run through most of Saturday: Richmond should be beating Hawthorn but something tells me that this will be a tough slog to get through, while Carlton won’t need Harry McKay to beat West Coast by a million. Brisbane are a different beast at home and even a red-hot Geelong will struggle to trouble them there.
Things get interesting in the evening: I’ve picked Sydney to get the job done on a flagging Fremantle, even on the road, but not confidently.
Then we have the match of the round, if not the season: a top-of-the-table blockbuster between Port Adelaide and Collingwood. If this was at the MCG, it’d be the Magpies all the way, but the Adelaide Oval venue complicates things. Still, the Pies have been the best team all year, play well on the road and I’m a bit concerned with Port’s defence following their loss to Carlton.
Sunday gives GWS a chance to prove they’re once again the league’s best expansion team against Gold Coast, while in the twilight game St Kilda will extend their stay in the eight for another week by knocking over North Melbourne.
In the middle is a fascinating game, with Adelaide in the last-chance saloon, on the road once again and facing an in-form Melbourne outfit fresh off a stirring win. You couldn’t possibly tip the Crows here, but I think they’re a sneaky chance.
(Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
Last week: 6
Essendon, Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS, Melbourne, St Kilda
One game between fifth and thirteenth on the ladder, and five rounds remaining.
It’s going to be a hell of a finish to the season. Which probably means a genuine nightmare for us tipsters.
‘Nightmare’ is also an apt adjective for the Dons’ loss at the Cattery last week, while the Doggies would be hurting after a loss to the Swans. Both are (just) in the eight, and both need to consolidate that position.
The Doggies are the slightly more consistent side, but my head is keener on the Dons to keep their finals dream alive.
On Saturday, two more teams with finals dreams – with varying levels of likelihood – are Richmond and Carlton. The Tigers should get over the Hawks (though this might be closer than you’d think), while across town the Blues will have precious little trouble besting the Eagles.
It’s a real indicator for how badly Freo’s season has progressed that most of their fans would look at last week’s 46-point loss to the Pies, shrug and muse that it could have been worse. Truthfully, besides a horror second quarter, it was an admirably cohesive performance they’d be aiming to repeat against the Swans. At home, injured and with nothing to play for, this screams disappointment, and I’m not brave enough to pick my own team – Swans for me.
Bookending the Optus Stadium clash are the weekend’s two best games. The Lions will be exceedingly glad to be back at the comfort of the Gabba give last weekend’s capitulation to Melbourne, but have to face Geelong. They’re a comfortably better side at home, but if the reigning premiers want to prove they’re still a formidable premiership contender, this is a key match they need to win.
The tricky thing is that, too, counts for the Lions, who as Tim mentioned this week, can’t really afford to slip up with the Demons breathing down their necks: I think they’re up for the challenge.
Port were always going to lose at some point, and a resurgent Carlton were always going to take a scalp. A two-for-one deal later, and Port now need to back up last week’s loss against the Magpies. The good news is this game is in Adelaide, the bad news is Collingwood aren’t even at full power and still look dominant. I’m very tempted to tip the Power, but the Magpies remain irresistible and they’ll just about lock in the minor premiership here.
Sunday is deceptively simple. On current form, GWS are in frame for a surprise finals berth; the Suns simply are not despite a great win last week. Thus, the battle of the expansion clubs is the Giants’ to lose.
The Crows are in real danger of missing finals now – a giant blaring red alarm would be sounding at West Lakes – and likely don’t have the firepower nor away record to trouble the Demons.
And the astounding fact the Saints are somehow still clinging to a finals berth will remain true as they’ll comfortably beat the Kangas.
Lance Franklin of the Swans speaks to his teammates. (Photo by Brendon Thorne/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
| Round 19 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESS vs WB | ESS | ESS | WB | ESS | WB |
| RCH vs HAW | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH | RCH |
| CAR vs WCE | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| BL vs GEE | BL | BL | BL | BL | BL |
| FRE vs SYD | FRE | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| PA vs COL | PA | PA | COL | COL | PA |
| GWS vs GCS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| MEL vs ADE | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| STK vs NM | STK | STK | STK | STK | STK |
| LAST WEEK | 4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 95 | 106 | 102 | 101 | 110 |
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