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You know that thing in the Big Bash where they give the finals fixtures weird names to try and make them seem more important than they are? The Eliminator, the Qualifier, The Knockout, The Challenger bla bla bla…
If the marketing bods at the NRL had any gumption, they’d have trademarked The Logjam by now, because it’s fast becoming the most interesting thing about the competition.
We’ve been robbed of a proper battle for the eight in recent years, but are being rewarded now with some teams fighting like all hell to make it up the ladder while others fall over themselves not to.
It will probably all be for nought, as Penrith are so far ahead of everyone else and the Broncos so far beyond anyone who isn’t called Penrith, but still: it’s huge drama for now. The Finals themselves might be less like that, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.
As for rankings…here goes nothing.
Every week they get better. Nobody is going to beat them this year in the regular season and, if they lose in the Finals, it’ll be a mammoth effort.
One week they win because of their attack, the next because of their defence. Brisbane occupy a strange spot between the Panthers, who are still leagues ahead, and everyone else. They should make the Grand Final but you’d be surprised if they won it.
A caveat: Souths remain third, but this is their last chance. They’ve shown levels well above any non-Brisbane team in terms of defeating the Panthers, and there’s literally nobody to replace them with. The potential the Bunnies had is retreating quickly into the rear view mirror.
As we’ll come onto, everyone behind them lost, except for the Warriors, who nearly and should lost, and the Sharks, for whom the phrase ‘a swallow does not make a summer’ was invented.
When you’re reading this, assume that place 3 is a massive gap where Souths should be. They’re third, but don’t deserve to be.
Melbourne have been good once in the last six weeks and that was against Parra, who fell over in front of them. The feeling that they’re a level down is real, and was demonstrated viciously by Penrith. Improvement needed, and fast.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
The Warriors at least won, so there’s that, but they did so in the least convincing way possible. The Titans are rubbish, but still got close despite having 12 men for an hour. In any other circumstances, they would have won and been good value for it.
The good news for Andrew Webster is that he can lay into his men all week on the dangers of complacency before getting a benign trot to see out the season. They got a wake-up call and the points, so there’s that.
Newcastle just keep getting it done, and have developed a real style that they can turn to. It’s nice to see a team that largely failed to be coherent for reasons beyond their control – injuries – and within their purview – playing their best player out of position – finally string results together.
Doubly interesting is that the Knights have often put in their best performances against the best opposition, which bodes well should they make finals from here.
With the Dogs next, then potential finals showdowns with the Bunnies and Sharks, all at home, their destiny is well and truly in their own hands.
The Sharks put in the sort performance that they have threatened to be capable of, but always underwhelmed in actually producing.
So what can we read into it? Souths fell over in front of them, but Cronulla still looked good and will take a huge amount of confidence. If they are serious, they’ll get into the eight and deserve it, because they face a resurgent Titans, then three other contenders back to back to back.
Real deal or not? Over to you, Sharkies.
North Queensland get a bye, and after their loss to the Broncos, they’ll need it. Losing to one of the best in the comp isn’t any sort of shame, but the manner of it brings up the same old questions, namely that against the best, their attack falters.
The Cowboys have to find two wins out of the Sharks, Dolphins and Panthers – which might rely on Penrith wrapping up the Minor Premiership early and resting a host of players in the final round.
If NQ got through on that – having already played a half-Penrith in Origin – then it would be very fortunate indeed.
Joseph Tapine. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
Parramatta won in the least convincing manner possible, limping over the finish line against one of the worst sides around.
Winning is good and they needed the two points. They’ll be better for 80 minutes into Dylan Brown.
The trouble is that they now go to Brisbane, then face a Roosters side that could theoretically still have the slightest thing to play for, then the Panthers. If they make it, it’ll be surprise.
One might wonder why the Raiders are still not in the top eight, even though Canberra will almost certainly make the finals.
To this, the response is simple: have you seen them play? Canberra could conceivably make the top four yet are $91 to win the Premiership. Parra, who are outsiders to even make the eight, are better odds than that.
So you’re saying there’s a chance…
Well, actually: the Chooks were a lot better than Manly and seem to have found a backline that works. The freedom of totally messing up their season has enabled them to play for funsies, which seems to work.
Just quietly: they get the Dolphins, who are doneskis, then the freefalling Eels, then the Tigers, who are rubbish, then Souths for a spot in the Finals. It’s a long way off impossible that Robbo’s Roosters make the Finals.
Daniel Tupou is tackled by Matt Lodge. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Manly aren’t as bad as they look, but they are also done for the year. Their style depends on winning play the balls in the middle and without their best four props, that isn’t going to happen anymore.
Taniela Paseka, Josh Aloiai and Matt Lodge are all done, and while Sean Keppie will return, it won’t be enough.
It’s fine. Actually, the Sea Eagles have done better than expected in 2023 and already look to have moved to 2024. Can’t wait.
The Phins are both rubbish and brilliant, capable of giving anyone a shake but, generally, also losing at the end.
They’re on Easy Street following overexceeding expectations early in the year, so enjoy them for the Valynce Te Whare charges, knowing that he’ll also concede a shedload too by running up ahead of the ball.
The Titans should probably move up given their last two weeks, but you just know they’ll let you down again. Still, a fun roadblock for someone to inevitably fall over at some points.
Like a riderless horse, they get the chance to trip up the Sharks, Storm and Panthers before the end of the year. They could also lose all three by 50. That’s the Titans.
(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Huge game coming up this weekend as they face fellow Finals hopefuls the Canberra Raiders…wait, no, that’s NSW Cup. Go watch the Doggies there, because they’re great fun.
The NRL team had the weekend off and could basically do that for the rest of the year, too.
A rare good showing from the Dragons this weekend. They lost though, and are still rubbish.
Tigers fans are used to losing, and now they get to do it twice in a weekend as the NRLW side lost too. So did the Magpies in Cup, actually. And their Flegg. Oh dear.
Oh, and while we’re on it: Tallyn Da Silva played in their 14-10 defeat to the Raiders’ Flegg side, despite having played for their NRL side two weeks ago, skipping NSW Cup entirely.