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All eight clubs playing finals in 2023 will be facing elimination at some point, which offers the opportunity for some players to stand up and show what they’re made of.
Sudden-death games can define legacies and improve the reputation of players, and teams sometimes need that X-factor, that inspired showing, to drag them across the line.
For every 2016 game six Western Conference Finals Steph Curry performance (causing personal pain), there’s a relative no-name in Caleb Martin who boosts their value with a game seven showing to put his team through to the NBA finals, adding extra value to his next contract.
Even looking back one year in the AFL, Dan McStay stepping up in the ruck for Brisbane in the elimination final against Richmond certainly helped in his talks with Collingwood.
There was Zach Sproule against the Swans a couple of years ago; Jeremy Finlayson multiple times in GWS’ magical run to the 2019 grand final; Clay Smith is a Bulldogs legend for his clutch performance in the 2016 prelim.
With their backs against the walls, this is each team’s player that can enhance their reputation and help their club avoid elimination.
The 22-year-old has had his moments in 2023, but perhaps his most influential game until now was in Round 1 against the reigning premiers Geelong, finishing with 20 disposals, two goals and two goal assists.
In recent times, though, he has attended the odd centre bounce and there has been a significant emphasis on using him as an attacking runner in the offensive half, with his impact per possession drastically improving, along with his metres gained numbers and impact on scores.
He popped up with a late goal and incredible forward pressure on Anzac Day, he has had scoreboard impact against the best teams in the league this season, and he is a fantastic standard-setter to spark the Magpies when needed.
McCreery’s career trajectory looks encouraging and his influence with limited ball in hand is the perfect recipe to success in the Pies’ upcoming preliminary final.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
It seems pretty obvious that Rayner is the X-factor prototype – but there has still been a lot of promise without a lot of production for the former first overall draft pick.
His numbers aren’t inspiring, averaging less than a goal a game and seeing his spurts in the midfield dry up in recent years; in the early stages of his career, he’s still more of an impact player than a high-level contributor.
Rayner has been poor in his finals to date, but he has performed in big games against the top opposition – he had four goals and three assists against the Magpies early in the season, and had key contributions against the Demons and Swans last year.
Yet a marquee performance, one that the Lions need to win, it’s the sort of action that gets the ball rolling for a player like this. The expectation is that Rayner will step into midfield opportunities next year with Will Ashcroft missing most of the season, and the Patrick Dangerfield comparisons have existed forever.
It just feels like this can be the year for that sort of game.
Wines may well be one of Port Adelaide’s best ever performers in finals footy, but 2023 offers a different challenge.
The veteran isn’t some all-conquering midfielder anymore – he has become the team’s fifth centre-bounce midfielder and is really more of an outside option these days.
But often, when teams need some sort of inspiration, they turn back to what they know, and Ken Hinkley is aware of what his former midfield maestro can do in these games. For someone that doesn’t hit the scoreboard much , Wines averages 1.5 shots on goal a game in his 10 finals appearances, while also having six assists to go along with his 25 disposals and five clearances.
It’s not the coolest name to suggest, but when all the focus will be on the young stars of the Port midfield, don’t be surprised to see Wines thrown into the mix a bit more in a knockout final and wind back the clock.
(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Alright, it’s the clear choice outside the superstars: but really, this finals series offers such an opportunity for growth for Pickett.
As things stand, his 2021 preliminary final performance against Geelong is the best we’ve seen from him in September – though he came tantalisingly close to turning the game against Collingwood on Thursday night.
Despite hitting the scoreboard with better regularity than most other small forwards, and adding consistent pressure to his game this season, the one part of the 22-year-old’s game that is currently holding him back is his form in September.
His career is still in its infancy, but averaging less than eight disposals and three tackles per final until the end of 2022 leaves a lot to be desire.
What Pickett does as a fourth-year small forward in finals won’t define him if it’s poor, but it will skyrocket him to the top of the list in his position if he can replicate some of his magnificent games when the Demons need it most. He’s the sort of guy that can win a Norm Smith.
Everything has just been slightly down for Saad this year, but it has suited Carlton in finding their perfect defensive balance.
Disposals, kicking efficiency, tackling, one-on-one loss percentage, score involvements, intercepting, all these things were marginally worse for Saad – it didn’t really feel like he was close to the All-Australian player he was in 2022, despite still having a good season in the end.
It’s fine though, because the Blues have been winning and have secured a home final. What worked in the regular season should of course be persisted with in September, but to win an eliminator, there needs to be a bit of X-factor. Someone needs to break the game open.
Carlton haven’t used Saad in as many advanced positions this season, so he hasn’t caught the eye as much. As good as they are at outmuscling the opposition in the midfield and controlling the game defensively, the Blues simply must maximise the use of Saad’s two-way ability and get him to run off the opposition’s best small forward.
He has had a rest to recover, he’s arguably the best small defender in the league at full flight and the most damaging rebounder in the league when given the responsibility. Let him run.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
In Windhager and his more celebrated teammate Mitch Owens, the Saints have two young stars that can help take them forward for the next decade.
And while all the acclaim goes to Owens, and justifiably so, Windhager has quietly been under the Ross Lyon education tree all season and non-Saints supporters will have barely noticed.
He started the year in attack, had a prolific spell in the VFL, became a centre-bounce midfielder for a month or so where he was tasked with a couple of tagging jobs, and more recently, has spent time across half back and advancing onto a wing.
Lyon must really, really trust his second-year player to take him on that sort of ride throughout the year, knowing that the upside for Windhager is huge. His true utility status is so valuable in finals and his underrated explosiveness in whatever position he plays can be a game-changer.
This isn’t to suggest a huge numbers game is on the cards for the 20-year-old, but he is built for big moments and will do whatever the team needs to get them over the line.
He shunned free agency and stayed with the Giants, but with the contract lengths and dollar figures that have been spoken about for Himmelberg, he is being treated like a star, so it’s time for him to prove that he’s worthy of that.
The 27-year-old is a good forward and a good defender. He’s prolific, he’s an excellent mark and he reads the play extremely well. But Himmelberg has lost his last five one-on-one contests, where before that, he’d lost just one of his previous 17. He’s a much better player with Sam Taylor alongside him, freeing him of genuine responsibility and allowing him to be an extremely counter-attacking interceptor.
That’s what the Giants need more than anything in a final. Yes, the matchwinners are in attack and through the middle, but a strong defence is only any good if they can turn it into something meaningful offensively.
If Himmelberg can have 25 disposals and take 10 marks to win GWS a game, as he’s done in the regular season, he’d enter true star category. He has it in him.
(Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Yeah there’s Errol Gulden, there’s Chad Warner, there’s Tom Papley and there’s Isaac Heeney, but the Swans rarely lose when Hayward performs.
Now, it could be a chicken-and-egg situation here in some people’s minds whether Sydney playing well is the actual cause of Hayward’s good performance and not vice versa; but that probably underrates the impact of the 24-year-old on this team.
Hayward’s not a stay-at-home medium forward, and nor is he a prolific, Adelaide-variety Tom Lynch sort of high half-forward. Really, he’s a mix of both and it’s super valuable to the Swans.
His work rate is often unnoticed because it’s largely unrewarded, leading up onto a wing and dragging an opponent out of position. He’s rated an elite kick and is often involved in ‘hockey’ assists – setting up the person who assists a score.
Hayward’s an above average marking player, a consistent tackler inside 50 and despite not being a big goal-scorer, he demands defensive attention.
With Sydney needing wins against GWS, Gold Coast and Adelaide in the final stages of the season, Hayward kicked six goals, averaged four tackles, took four marks inside 50 and had four goal assists. He was simply involved in a lot of the forward play, and it made a difference.
In the wet against Carlton, his tackling will be huge. If he kicks an early goal, he’ll demand attention and he’ll play higher up.
He won’t win a game by kicking a bag, but he will enable a tactical victory more than any other Sydney player.