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“Overall, a conservative team named, from a conservative coach. Is this the beginnings of a team that will take us through to the next World Cup?
The loose forwards, halfback, first-five, midfield, wing, and full back are concerns.”
I wrote those words just over two years ago and they seem rather appropriate now for the All Blacks. Not a lot has really changed and the fears people had about the team and coach Ian Foster are coming to fruition. Am I getting in too early now with my presumption the All Blacks will be knocked out prematurely in Rugby World Cup 2023? Will I look like a fool if they go further and even win it? Rather than be reactive over this team, I prefer to voice my concerns now as I do not have full confidence they will win. To criticise the team often brings out the blindly loyal who do not see fault in the team and live more in hope than reality.
I am not being disloyal, just observing what I see to be the truth and, yes, the truth can hurt. The All Blacks’ record since 1903 is one to be cherished with over 70 per cent of matches won, which brings great pressure and analysis on current teams.
I did believe the All Blacks had turned a corner in the match against the Springboks in Auckland this year with their fast-paced start, but maybe this was a false dawn with South Africa fighting back through their bench. Sky Sport called it a “statement victory ahead of the World Cup”, but maybe it made them overconfident with early season wins when the most important games were still to be played.
Siya Kolisi of South Africa competing with Mark Telea. (Photo by Andrew Kearns – CameraSport via Getty Images)
The man with an opinion, David Campese shares my thoughts on this World Cup All Blacks team by saying on Planet Rugby: “New Zealand were bloody awful, perhaps there’s confusion between Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett in the same manner I suggested with Ford and Farrell? I hate to say this, but right now, they’re not at the races, and with the guns of Ireland and South Africa in their half of the draw, they’ll struggle to progress past the quarters.”
The idea of having two playmakers on the same side sounds like a great idea but does it really work? It reminded me of when Christian Cullen was named at centre for the All Blacks in 1999, great concept, not so good reality. As I have said previously, pick your best players in each position and stop the propensity to overthink the team.
What legacy will Ian Foster have since commencing his coaching career in 2019? He appears to have fulfilled his destiny, or does he have one final trick in 2023? His record does not make for great reading unfortunately with a number of firsts (sourced from NZ Herald 2022):
– First coach to lose a home series since 1994
– First coach to lose back-to-back tests in his first three years in charge
– First coach to lose to Argentina
– First coach to lose to Ireland at home
– First coach to lose a series to Ireland
– First coach to lose to five different nations (Australia, Argentina, South Africa, Ireland and France).
– Under Foster, Ireland, France, South Africa and Argentina have all beaten the All Blacks by 10 points or more.
Jacques Nienaber, Head Coach of South Africa, and Ian Foster. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
This does not include the recent losses to South Africa, the Boks’ biggest-ever win over the All Blacks, and the first-ever pool loss coming against France.
Do people look at this record and accept it? Many of his wins have been against sides from outside of the top eight ranked teams and he has a low percentage win rate compared to his predecessors. Another stat to digest is Foster was the quickest of the All Blacks coaches to register eight defeats, with approximately 30 matches compared to Steve Hansen’s 95 games. So, he has accumulated a long list of undesirable firsts, what major achievements have there been? Yes, there have been Bledisloe Cup, Freedom Cup and Rugby Championship wins but the unwanted statistics remain with the looming ignominy of a World Cup exit a distinct possibility.
Does this matter anyway with Scott Robertson set to take the reins in 2024? Well, yes it does if you do not like getting overtaken by other rugby nations like France, South Africa and Ireland and having a current world ranking of four is not ideal.
Am I jumping the gun and would it not be better to wait until pool games are over before making judgements?
Well, call it gut instinct and a lack of faith with the All Blacks exhibiting a mental frailty that is being tested by the other teams.
It is no fun being invited to the party and then told you must go home early! If they go further I will gladly say I was wrong.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.