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Opinion
The key statistical showdowns point to Penrith becoming the first team to register a premiership hat-trick in four decades but the Broncos can overcome the odds with quality as opposed to quantity.
Brisbane players, coaching staff and fans probably should not scroll down to the table below which highlights 23 areas which will go a long way to deciding who lifts the NRL trophy on Sunday night at Accor Stadium.
It should be no surprise to anyone who follows the rugby code where Australia wins World Cups rather than crashes out before the quarter-finals (sorry, not sorry Wallabies) that Penrith are a machine.
They rank first in the NRL in 17 of the main metrics covering attack and defence with Brisbane holding the edge in just four of them.
| Penrith | Brisbane | |
| 715 (1st in NRL) | Points | 707 (2nd) |
| 121 (2nd) | Tries | 123 (1st) |
| 181.2 (1st) | Runs per game | 163.5 (7th) |
| 1605 (1st) | Running metres | 1504 (2nd) |
| 5.2 (5th) | Line breaks | 5.8 (1st) |
| 40.3 (1st) | Tackle breaks | 37.7 (2nd) |
| 10.2 (5th) | Offloads | 10.7 (3rd) |
| 36.5 (1st) | Plays in red zone | 25.1 (15th) |
| 83% (1st) | Completion rate | 78% (9th) |
| 80% (4th) | Goal-kicking | 77% (11th) |
| 22.7 (1st) | Kicks | 20 (7th) |
| 586 (2nd) | Kick metres | 552 (9th) |
| 10.9 (1st) | Attacking kicks | 8.8 (10th) |
| 1.9 (1st) | Forced drop-outs | 1.1 (17th) |
| 130 (1st) | Kick-return metres | 103 (5th) |
| 5.3 (14th) | Dummy-half runs | 8.3 (3rd) |
| 44.5 (1st) | Line engagements | 29.2 (15th) |
| 125.3 (1st) | General play passing | 90.3 (15th) |
| 8.7 (1st) | Errors | 10.8 (13th) |
| 322 (1st) | Points conceded | 437 (2nd) |
| 1285.9 (1st) | Run metres conceded | 1424.8 (8th) |
| 3.5 (1st) | Line breaks conceded | 4.3 (4th) |
| 27.5 (1st) | Missed tackles | 28.5 (2nd) |
Penrith don’t have any glaring weaknesses but that does not mean they are invincible as they try to emulate the 1983 Eels, who were the last team to rack up a three-peat of titles back when the premiership had only just expanded beyond Sydney’s borders to include Illawarra and Canberra.
The Panthers became minor premiers this year in atypical circumstances with Brisbane opting to rest their main players in the final round against Melbourne and virtually conceding top spot to prioritise resting up before the playoffs.
In the 39 seasons since Jack Gibson ended his historic stint at Parra, there have been only 16 teams who have gone on to take the title after minor premiership.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
So finishing first in the regular season is by no means a reliable indicator of a team going all the way.
One historical indicator which you would think would outline how the Panthers’ dominance is likely to translate into premiership success is the fact that they have the best records for attack and defence in 2023.
But of the 10 teams since 1983 who have achieved the double of being the best scorers and the stingiest defenders over the course of a season, only six have become premiers – the Broncos in 1998 and 2000 when Kevin Walters was guiding the team from the field instead of the coach’s box, the salary cap-tainted 2007 Storm side, the Roosters of 2013, Melbourne in 2017 and last year’s Panthers.
The only teams to lead the league in attack and defence and not go on to become premiers were the 2001 Eels who choked against Newcastle in the first Grand Final played at night, Parramatta again four years later when they didn’t even make the premiership decider and the Roosters (2015) and Storm (2019), who also exited at the prelim final stage.
Brisbane beat Penrith 13-12 at BlueBet Stadium on the back of an Adam Reynolds field goal all the way back in Round 1 before the Panthers turned the tables on them in May with a 15-4 triumph at Suncorp Stadium.
A lot has happened between the opening round and the final fixture of the season but the Broncos can at least gain some confidence from their upset in March.
Penrith looked to be suffering from the combined effects of a Grand Final and World Cup off-season hangover but they were bustled off their game by a more enthusiastic Broncos outfit.
The Panthers ended up bettering Brisbane in time in possession by more than four minutes but the visitors overcame the quantity issue with quality, converting their only two line breaks into tries for Herbie Farnworth.
It has been a theme of Brisbane’s season.
Even though they have two of the best metre-eaters in the NRL in the imposing form of Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan, they rank 15th for plays in the opposition’s 20-metre zone, only ahead of Newcastle and Canterbury.
Their 25.1 plays in the red zone on average is well behind Penrith, who at 36.5 were more than five ahead of the next-best side, Canberra.
But the Broncos have scored more tries than any other team, including the Panthers.
This shows that they don’t need to dominate field position and set up camp repeatedly at Penrith’s end of Accor Stadium and that they have the power to attack from anywhere on the field, usually from Reece Walsh sweeping around the back on either edge.
Melbourne last Friday night had a few line break opportunities against the Panthers in the first half but poor hands and rushed passes meant they only converted one of those chances into points.
(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
Penrith soaked up the pressure, eventually won the yardage arm wrestle and made no such mistakes when scoring opportunities presented themselves.
This will be Brisbane’s eighth Grand Final appearance in their 35-year history but the first time they will be going in as underdogs.
The odds are against them but they are a puncher’s chance if they can seize the big attacking moments.
Even though they ended up putting a 42-12 scoreline on the Warriors on Saturday night, they were still too loose in attack and defence, conceding four line breaks.
If they have their line broken four times by the Panthers, there’s a strong possibility it will cost them 24 points and any chance of breaking their 17-year premiership drought.