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There isn’t a person with even the slightest bit of rugby knowledge who doesn’t know that the draw for the 2023 World Cup is a farce.
Conducted a decade ago, to ensure that supplies of premium gin could be shipped in to Paris’ swankiest hotels without risk of falling foul of a labour strike, the draw has angered fans worldwide.
And for good reason. Any so-called ‘draw’ that has two proper rugby sides exiting after the quarterfinals, while allowing England a rail’s-run through to the semis deserves ridicule.
So, while the rest of the rugby world waits for Fiji to put an end to that nonsense and do the job on England that World Rugby should have, another picture has emerged this week.
Perhaps World Rugby is smarter than what everyone has given them credit for?
With the remaining 8 sides split neatly into an ‘A’ division; Ireland, New Zealand, France, South Africa, and a ‘B’ division; England, Fiji, Wales, Argentina, the crossover within those groups means that the quarterfinals comprise four matches that are all nigh impossible to pick.
As per a conventional finals format, there is no token 1 v 8, or 2 v 7 procession here. Simply the best versus the best, and the rest versus the rest. All of them, enticing and enthralling match-ups.
It appears that the joke is on us. That this was really the plan after all. Who needs a dud round of quarterfinal matches with the four favoured teams progressing in a canter? Far better to thrill everybody, with every match a ripper. Right?
Well, kind of. There’s no doubt that the cards have fallen kindly for this weekend. Indeed, every match is a winner, and anyone who tips 4/4 will almost certainly be a better man than me.
But before we go hailing the all-conquering genius that is World Rugby, there are a couple of fatal flaws to consider.
Whatever the outcome of this brilliant weekend, next week’s semifinals are looking a tad sickly.
No disrespect is meant towards Wales, Argentina, England and Fiji when it is said that the winner of this World Cup was always coming from the four nations on the other side of the draw. (Well ok, a wee bit of disrespect to England, but you know what I mean).
Yes, the usual disclaimers apply, and it is quite possible for one of those sides to take it all the way. But, you know… pigs/fly, ScarJo/date and all that.
To be clear, despite all the huffing and puffing, the draw won’t have any bearing on the final outcome. Two teams will be eliminated a week earlier than they probably should, but beside that, the best team will still win, no matter what.
And no matter all the knowing nods over the last three years about how weak pool C was, it still proved too hot for the Hamish and Eddie project.
The other flaw is classic World Rugby. On both days, matches are scheduled first for Marseilles at 5pm local time, then 9pm in Paris. Suitable to allow people time to watch both matches, right?
Except that the media centre at Stade de France doesn’t open until 5.30pm. By the time everyone has their media passes forensically examined, their name immaculately ruled off in fluoro highlighter, match ticket issued, and has subjected themselves to a patting down of such intimacy that one could only dream it came from a budding paramour rather than a too-keen, Gauloises-toting security guard, that’s half the match gone.
Call it a first-world problem if you like, but the notion that the world’s rugby media, present for two of the quarterfinals, might have a passing interest in the other two quarterfinals, seems to have escaped World Rugby.
The solution? Mate, this is France. There is no such thing here as an oversight that might be fixed on the run. There is only the way it is.
Having been peppered with requests and messages from home asking who is going to go through, truth be told, I’ve been pulling splinters out of my backside all week.
The All Blacks have no option but to fight fire with fire and take Ireland on at the breakdown, playing with controlled ferocity and directness. A huge task, much of which falls onto the shoulders of Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Sam Whitelock and Shannon Frizell.
LYON, FRANCE – SEPTEMBER 29: Brodie Retallick and Samuel Whitelock of New Zealand prepare to contest a scrum during the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between New Zealand and Italy at Parc Olympique on September 29, 2023 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
The first 15 minutes will be crucial. Narrow it may be, but the All Blacks have a path to victory. New Zealand by 6.
The other Paris blockbuster is just as compelling. South Africa are better side than they were in 2019. But so are France, and it feels like momentum is with the home side. France by 6.
All sides are impacted by injury but the loss of Pablo Matera is crucial for Argentina. Wales have been impressively efficient and will kick their goals. Wales by 6.
Fiji have been running on kava fumes for three weeks now, but will surely lift for England. With their lineout a shambles, it feels like they are torn between the disciplined, power game which served them so well against Australia, and the dynamic, transition game they are so well known for.
England are fooling nobody, but the old saying about having to go there and learn from the experience first, might be an anchor for Fiji. England by 6.
And yes, if I’m 0/4 come Monday morning, by all means serve it up in the comments, or alternatively, pen a letter to someone who cares, like your local MP.
The conclusion of pool play was marked by Portugal’s historic 24-23 win over Fiji, and absolute scenes at Lisbon airport, upon their heroes’ return.
Which only made some of the takes on the make-up of future World Cups all the more confounding. So, rugby really needs less of these moments – in non-traditional markets – and more self-loathing from jaded and weary Australian and Scottish fans? Their cynicism and despair at their own countries plight neatly ring-fenced via their vote at World Rugby’s table?
Yes, the World Cup is too long. Yes, it needs re-engineering. And yes, there are other ways in which to accelerate the advance of developing nations than through the World Cup alone.
But Australia 2027 will be a far less joyous celebration of rugby if fans from South America, Europe and the Pacific Islands are told to stay at home. Heck, if the cost of securing Portugal, Uruguay and Chile’s participation next time is for World Rugby to conduct the draw three years in advance, I’d take that as a win.
After a highly enjoyable pool match between Argentina and Japan in Nantes – one of the best of the tournament – the press conferences threw up two telling observations.
The first was departing Japan coach Jamie Joseph expressing a little frustration that one of the reasons his side hadn’t kicked on since the heady days of the 2019 Cup, was that, with the Sunwolves having exited Super Rugby and Japan still not part of the Rugby Championship, its players weren’t sufficiently exposed to high-level rugby.
NANTES, FRANCE – OCTOBER 08: Jamie Joseph, Head Coach of Japan, looks on during the warm up prior to the Rugby World Cup France 2023 match between Japan and Argentina at Stade de la Beaujoire on October 08, 2023 in Nantes, France. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Having heard him on the topic before, that’s as much a dig at Japan’s administrators as it is the SANZAAR nations, but the bigger issue isn’t about apportioning blame, but finding a way to make things happen for the betterment of rugby in the region.
That conversation must also include Fiji, Samoa and Tonga, and while it’s never easy balancing commercial imperatives with a rugby wish list, there can be no doubt that this World Cup has shown more than ever, how much all of the nations in our region need each other in order to stay relevant and competitive.
That may not please those who continue to insist that Australia’s solution is to turn inward and draw further from the strength of Sydney and Brisbane club rugby, but of course, more than one thing at a time can be true.
Joseph also took the opportunity – in a very sly way – to throw in his vote for Dave Rennie to succeed him as Japan coach. If continued accounts about Eddie Jones are true, it seems like his former bosses aren’t listening to him on that one, either.
The other observation is that Michael Cheika, noting that this was after a win, seems far more relaxed and self-assured than he ever was in the Wallabies’ hot seat. Make of that what you will.
From Nantes it was a two-hour skip up to the Morbihan region of Brittany, to enjoy some of the small towns and villages in and around Quiberon Bay. While many of the old towns still provide administrative services, the area is dominated by holiday homes, oyster leases and sailboats, with the coastline carrying strong Montauk, Long Island vibes for anyone who may have watched, ‘The Affair’.
There was also time to tick off another ‘bucket list’ item when I made the long run up to Mont Saint Michel, midweek. It is impossible to prepare oneself properly for the first sighting; the Abbey, built in 708, rising out of the sea like a Disney castle, simply breathtaking.
It’s not all about that iconic vista either, with the Abbey itself a remarkable feat of design and construction.
And yes, because the French are nothing if not consistent, I was once again offered the ‘seniors price’ for the Abbey tour without having to ask for it. Pour l’amour du ciel.