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The Melbourne Rebels are edging ever closer to their maiden finals series but have not yet made a statement to the competition about their credentials.
The embattled franchise may be playing their last ever home game at AAMI park on Friday night against the Chiefs, and if there was ever a time to make a statement, it should be now in front of their faithful fans.
It is at the breakdown where they must make their stand.
The Rebels must slow opposition ball down to be able to compete with New Zealand opposition. (Photo by Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images)
Against the four New Zealand sides the Rebels have been unable to control the breakdown, stemming from an inability to slow the pace of their rucks consistently.
This stings the Rebels because they concede the second most amount of tries from counterattack or turnovers in the competition.
Similarly, 32.7 per cent of their tries conceded also come from first phase ball, stemming from an inability to slow breakdowns and react quickly to set in defensive shape.
Despite this being an Achilles heel, what is clear and positive is that when they play the Kiwi sides, they can score points.
RESULTS AGAINST NZ TEAMS
| Team | Result | Win/Loss | Home or Away | PD |
| Hurricanes | 54-28 | L | A | -26 |
| Highlanders | 47-31 | W | H | +16 |
| Crusaders | 39-0 | L | A | -39 |
| Blues | 38-11 | L | H | -27 |
| Total PD | -76 |
Aside from the Crusaders game, which was an anomaly, and the Blues, who have the best defence in the competition, the Rebels have points in them, no matter where they play.
The physicality of their pack challenges most teams, and it gives them great gain line carries, but without a strategy to slow down the Chiefs’ breakdown, the Rebels may not be able to keep them to a scoreline they can match.
However, by looking at the first 40 minutes against the Queensland Reds they can extrapolate elements which they can use in their game on Friday night.
They were able to use their power game to disrupt the Queenslander’s flow, but their breakdown defence could leave them exposed against another power side like the Chiefs.
Rebels defensive ruck shape 1
The Rebels are chop tackling very effectively, but the Melbournians are tackling as individuals and not working as a team to maximise their presence in defence.
In the modern game a two-man tackle system is often preferred.
The first tackler arrests the attacker’s momentum with a leg-tackle and the second tackler forces the attacker backwards with a shot to the torso.
This tackle wraps the ball up, gets a defender over the ball carrier in the ruck and forces the attacking team to clean the second tackler out.
In general, this clearing of bodies can slow a ruck speed by one or two seconds in of itself and that is one defensive element the Rebels are not incorporating.
They see the tackle is completed and then set, rather than pestering the ruck.
Rebels defensive ruck shape 2As seen here, the Rebels defenders surrounding the tackle set into their ‘pillar and post’ (the closest tacklers on either side of the ruck) very quickly.
In isolation, it’s not an issue but without genuine on-ballers strewn throughout the pack, it gifts opposition very quick ball.
The Reds are often only sending one cleaner to the ruck and the Rebels are often just watching.
Although this didn’t cost the Rebels on Friday night, the Chiefs will exploit the time and space given to them from this passive structure.
The name of the game is to outscore the Chiefs.
As seen, the Rebels only seem to have around 29 points in them at their best against the Kiwi sides, the Chiefs can score many more if given the opportunity.
Making Friday night at AAMI a dog fight is the only way the Rebels will be able to frustrate the Chiefs and keep them to a score they can match.
How they could lay this ambush is with more on-ballers and more counter rucking.
In the way of on-ballers, one of their best returns to the fold in Brad Wilkin.
He along with Josh Kemeny, Vaiolini Ekuasi, and Filipo Daugunu out wide gives them that necessary threat and presence across the park.
Changing a D-system 13 weeks into a competition is tough, but employing a new mindset could occur in one week.
The counter ruck worked well for the Rebels against the Reds and is more about awareness rather than regimented strategy.
Rebels counter ruck 1Rebels counter ruck 2Rebels counter ruck 3
Each one of these counter rucks was a player making a reactive decision to the picture in front of them.
However, it only works if there’s communication with those around the ruck, otherwise the Rebels leave themselves vulnerable to the counterattack which they are trying to guard against.
Nick Jooste, Daugunu and Kemeny all work incredibly hard in these clips to turn the ball over.
The Reds’ ruck work is extremely accurate but lone cleaners meant the Rebels had identified an opportunity to use their power game in another part of the field.
Although the Chiefs are a different prospect, the Rebels will still be able to leverage that power game against the men from Hamilton.
Amongst the Rebels there are many Wallabies and Wallaby hopefuls, and it’s the kind of game against a New Zealand heavyweight that will matter in the eyes of the selectors.
Josh Canham must show his mettle in the tight stuff and at lineout.
Carter Gordon must show he can get his team into the right parts of the field and stay there.
Sam Talakai and Jordan Uelese will want to show they can anchor the scrum and lineouts, while Wilkin will want to show Joe Schmidt he can pilfer a ball against any opposition.
Having gone with a 6-2 split on the bench, coach Kevin Foote knows where this game will be won and lost.
The Rebels head into what appears to be their last home game as they have often done, as underdogs, but the path to a maiden finals series could become just a little more real if they get a result on Friday night at the Stockade.
It’s an opportunity to go from participants to competitors in the most competitive year of Super Rugby Pacific.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.