Few things are sweeter in the A-Liga season than a Friday night OG Derby at Coopers Stadium. I love this fixture. Roll home from work, pop a stubby and prepare for what is usually peak A-League chaos.
Adelaide come into this game on a short turnaround, following a 4-2 win at Western United that in truth, flattered the Reds. They lost the Expected Goals battle convincingly, 1.63 to 3.65, and gave up 6 Big Scoring Chances.
Through the season, Carl Veart’s men have been conceding nearly 2.5 Big Scoring Chances per 90 minutes, which doesn’t bode well for a visit from the Victory that boasts a trove of attacking talent. The likes of Nani, Brimmer and Fornaroli won’t be as wasteful as Dylan Wenzell-Halls and Lachie Wales.
(Photo by Maurizio Lagana/Getty Images)
In the Reds’ favour is their chance creation. They lead the A-League in Big Scoring Chances created, and their star Socceroo Craig Goodwin leads all players in this metric. The move to a central role for Ben Halloran has paid immediate dividends as well.
The question will be whether their attack can produce such a swathe of chances against a truly excellent Victory defence.
Victory arrive at Coopers Stadium similarly flattered by a 4-0 win over Newcastle Jets last Friday night. From open play, the Victory have played to a rather paltry +0.28xg/90 minutes through the first five games of the season.
The pre-season take on the navy blues was that they would overwhelm teams with Johnny Warren Medallist Jake Brimmer, marquee man Nani and former Socceroo Chris Ikonimidis, but this simply hasn’t been the case.
They’ve failed to create more than 1.5xg from open play in any game this season. Their results have come on the back of a stingy and structured defence.
Victory are allowing 1 Big Scoring Chance per 90 minutes this season, an impressive stat in a league that is known for how open it is. They do this despite a rather poor press. The Jets routinely played through any Victory pressure last week, but what the Victory excel at is defending their own penalty area.
Josh Brilliante and Rai Marchand are excellent screeners in the double pivot that Tony Popovich employs in front of Roderick Miranda and Leigh Broxham.
Whether that ability to absorb pressure in their own back third can hold up against Goodwin and co is the question I have for this Round 6 matinee.
This game features two teams high on confidence, with contrasting styles. Adelaide will have no problem playing through any Victory press and into the final third. It will be incumbent on Goodwin and Halloran to try and pry open a Melbourne side that simply doesn’t allow many touches and chances inside their penalty area.
The presence of the 6”4 Hiroshi Ibusuki on a shorter Broxham is an avenue to goal I expect them to exploit, particularly with the outstanding quality of delivery that Goodwin possesses.
Craig Goodwin of Adelaide United. (Photo by James Elsby/Getty Images)
Though they create a multitude of chances, they have missed a league worst 12 Big Scoring Chances, and can’t afford the same poor return against a misly Victory that simply don’t allow teams to get into scoring positions often.
On the other end, Victory contain more than enough attacking quality to exploit the Reds in transition. Nani in particular has shown off a sophisticated passing game when dropping into the half-spaces, and Nick D’Agostino’s ability to run in behind spells trouble for a very open Adelaide defensive unit.
Expect Brimmer to continue to provide some more magic with the space afforded to him too.
Both of these teams are overrated by pundits off the back of flattering results, but I do expect goals in front of a packed Coopers Stadium, and the points shared in a 2-2 draw.
Are you the ultimate team manager? Pick your own superstar team and go head to head with other football fans for glory and cash prizes on Draftstars. Imagine what you could be buying instead. Set a deposit limit.
Football Australia has announced a landmark move with the upcoming A-Leagues finals campaign to feature the use of live VAR to improve the fans'…
Who stood out from the Australians both here and overseas in a busy week of the world game? Goalkeeper - Mathew Ryan- 3-0 win…
The UEFA Champions League is the gift that keeps giving for football fans: few major tournaments in any sport can claim to so consistently…
Joe Lolley was outstanding for the Sky Blues, scoring a brace as Sydney FC equaled their biggest ever victory.
Eight trophies is nothing to be sneered at, but can Klopp’s name can be mentioned among the best managers in the Premier League era?
The Matilda scored the first two of her team's goals in the 4-0 win.
