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Roar Rookie
Joined September 2019
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I agree. Gravity does always win, I don’t see the Hawks as being immune to it. But we are an extremely well-run club that is zigging and zagging through an era that is totally compromised by free agency – not to mention zoning that regularly bumps draft picks 2, 3 , 4 places back (ie Hawks pick 10 is likely to become pick 13). I’m sorry, but when premiers / prelimers Richmond get (potentially) the best key forward in the game (Lynch) for nothing, absolutely nothing, I pity anyone who believes in the bottom-out, use-the-draft strategy. Makes more sense to me to try to stay up and attract players – and I’m happy the Hawks at least have the balls to try.
As for the 1997 – 2006 downturn …
1. the club was poorly run through that period – I wish we could blame it all on gravity and … 2. from 1988 to 1996 no fewer than 4 expansion clubs entered the comp, compromising a good chunk of those drafts. Maybe we learned some lessons from that period 😛
No longer the No.1 destination club, Clarko magic is Hawthorn's big hope
Apologies for late join to conversation but …
As an old Hawks supporter, reading posts and listening to media pundits brings on severe dejavu. Through most of the 80’s and early 90’s our demise was predicted year after year after year – “too old too slow.” It was said almost as often as Don Scott said “never write off the Hawks.” But we defied gravity better than any team I’ve seen – challenged only by Clarko’s Hawks. The lessons of both Hawk incarnations seem to be lost on all those pundits.
Discussing picks and trades is only a part of the picture (puzzle). Our success is only partly down to recruitment. In that area, by the way, our trick has been to prioritize the recruitment of skillful, intelligent footballers over athletes. I’m sure some clubs put more effort into studying the draft combine spreadsheet than whether a player can get the ball and / or do something constructive with it.
The biggest key to our success, and why we always outperform the draft numbers, is that our player development is first class (as a few other posters have clearly noticed). What they do at Boxhill is awesome, but gets no credit from the wider football world. Why did no-one predict the Bulldogs rapid rise in 2016 – or Richmond’s in 2017 – or West Coast’s in 2018? Because pundits / analysts have no idea what’s going on outside of the AFL 22 each week – and are always blindsided when young talent emerges – not new players plucked from the draft, but players that have been incubating for 1, 2, 3 years in the VFL or the WAFL and are ready to have an impact.
That’s why I am bullish about our future. Matt Walker is going to be a gun – and Jackson Ross and Harrison Jones are going to be very good AFL players, sooner rather than later. Not to mention Lewis, Hanrahan and others that AFL watchers have already seen. I wouldn’t go so far as to predict Premierships, but the idea we are going to fall off a cliff is not just wishful thinking, it’s willful ignorance.
No longer the No.1 destination club, Clarko magic is Hawthorn's big hope
Great work – your list cuts through a lot of bs about Hawthorn’s strategy. Another pertinent list is the value of our first round draft picks – those we’ve kept and given away. One of the reasons we’ve (rightly) traded so often is the weak value of the picks. If you listen to the so called experts in the media, you would think all “first round picks” are of equal value – as if the pick 14 we gave up for Tom Mitchell was like a pick 1. We got the deal of the century but it played out in the media as if we had sold our future. 😂
No longer the No.1 destination club, Clarko magic is Hawthorn's big hope
Interested to see you mention Ross Lyon 👍 Big finger to be pointed at Chris Scott – is he the knew Ross Lyon? They’ve bombed out of recent finals series playing tedious, slow, safe football – so they make changes to start the year (placing trust in young players, moving the ball quickly, becoming efficient and dangerous in the front half) but then can’t help but return to the default setting when things get serious (back to relying on old faves, slow controlling football, embarrassingly inefficient forward line). I actually felt sorry for their forwards – Hawkins and Ablett will get slaughtered but this one is all on Chris Scott (don’t get me started on the genius decision to leave out Stanley against Grundy of all people (and shifting their best key defender in the process). Feel sorry for Cats supporters 😢
Pies into prelim after conquering Cats