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Roar Rookie
Joined March 2015
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Professional horse racing analyst for one of Australia's largest tips and ratings providers and pro punter.
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Winning Rupert will win this race easily and go on to become one of the best sprinters we have ever produced, take him on at your peril.
Magic Millions: My contenders and pretenders - taking on Winning Rupert!
As a long time Tigers fan I am happy to see Farah has things sorted, I have been disgusted in the way he was treated by Taylor and also the board by them backing Taylor’s decision to dump him to reserve grade all the for the good of his own ego. The Tigers were a much stronger team with Farah in the side and without him they had absolutely no attacking options from dummy half and IMO it has cost them a place in the finals. Any winning teams needs a smart dummy half and Taylor is lucky that he has Brooks, Moses and Tedesco to make him look semi-good (and even that is being generous) or he would be once again on the “crap coaches” heap out the back.
I’ll be cheering the Bunnies whenever they play the Tigers from here on out and that is something I though I would never hear myself say in a million years.
Robbie Farah signs with South Sydney
I look outside of conventional thinking, nobody gave The Virginian a chance in the Stradbroke yet my speed ratings said he had a much better chance than the market and I cleaned up on a place bet paying $40/place.
Runsanti has run speed ratings just as good as F’n’R and his 1st up run rated the exact same figure on my scale of 108.8 as F’n’R rated in the Goodwood, this run was 5L better than his 1st up run last prep and he is a proven 2nd up ratings improver.
The peak ratings for both horses over the last 12 months (on my scale) is less than 1L apart and I see Runsanti as the improver of the 2 which is why I have him on top and have backed him and E/W along with Olivier who also rates very well.
Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes: Preview and predictions
Olivier is in great form this prep and Runsanti ran enormous when resuming beaten less than a length by Oddyssey Moon with Ruettiger franking that form, both horses rated in my Top 20 sprinting performances for June and I will be on them both E/W.
Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes: Preview and predictions
I’ve always had a very strong opinion of Pasadena Girl after her terrific debut win, she was victim of a poor ride in the Sires which in my view cost her the win but she showed her class here. She will go on to win the Thousand Guineas and the Oaks.
Past the post: Randwick wrap
Hardest race on the card understandably, trying to separate wet track ratings versus dry track ratings and while some horses have excellent wet track stats the speed ratings from those runs may not be up to par. I have settled on 4 place bets at what I deem to be good value – It’s Somewhat, Arabian Gold, Leebaz and Rudy. All have very good wet track ratings, if one can place happy days, if I get 2 then it will be a big result.
2015 Doncaster Mile preview and tips
Ok, I believe that Air Apparent had simply had enough with 6 runs since her debut and that is why she failed. I have a very high opinion of Pasadena Girl based on the speed ratings she has returned, on a dry track she wins but on a wet track I will have to wait and see. The $15 available last Friday was a nice way to find out.
The Championships: Day 1 preview
Adam I see that you have left Pasadena Girl out of your top 4, what is your reasoning behind that?
The Championships: Day 1 preview
Appreciate your thoughts kv, as an 8yo he is in career best form and his run in the Australian Cup earned him a very good speed rating going into this. His 400-200m sectional was 10.98 and his last 400m run in 22.91, considering this race was run 10L faster than the class benchmark that is a super effort. The last time he tried this distance he was a 4yo and clearly he is going a lot better than he was back then so I don’t feel the extra 400m will be a concern this time around.
My main concern is whether he backs up again as he has been up a while but in my opinion the $26 is more than adequate for an e/w investment. I bet to profit for the place and the cream comes from the win, $5.90 the place for me is good odds to find out.
The BMW: Runner-by-runner preview
Silent Achiever is a classy mare but I don’t believe the Ranvet is the right form race coming into this, it was run at a snails pace and the overall time was 8.5L slower than the class benchmark.
Full preview of the weekend's racing
I think you have put all your eggs on the track being wet, the weather looks good the next 3 days and I think we’ll be at a Good4 by the time this race is run.
My ratings are heavily influenced by speed and since I have no data on To The World I will be playing the huge E/W value of Extra Zero (last tried this distance as a 4yo, much stronger now as an 8yo and in super form) and also Who Shot Thebarman who will be fitter for 2 runs back and getting out to a much more suitable trip.
The BMW: Runner-by-runner preview
If you want to blackbook a horse you can follow Pasadena Girl, her debut run produced a huge speed rating and what she did from her run in transit on Saturday was enormous. I can’t wait until I get the digital timing data so I can do her speed rating.
Past the Post: Flemington and Rosehill wrap
Were we watching the same race? Dunn put him in the worst possible position inside slower horses at the back of the field where he was never going to be a winning hope. Chautauqua is the best sprinter in the country and I will back that up with numbers but Dunn’s ride never gave him a chance.
Not to take away from the winner, he was given a perfect ride from the best in the business but I agree if you swap the jocks you swap the results.
Past the Post: Flemington and Rosehill wrap
Considering he raced with a bone chip in the knee and was only beaten 2L I still have no doubt he was the class horse in the race and only enforces my opinion that he will indeed run a strong 1400m as his 1200m ratings suggested…..looking forward to his return in the spring so he can prove it.
Magic Millions: My contenders and pretenders - taking on Winning Rupert!