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Joined June 2013
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Our favourite footy clubs provide a compelling narrative. Think Port Adelaide, with their rags to riches story, or Sydney's famous 'Bloods' culture, supposedly the…
The off-season is a the footy tragic's nightmare. With no action to watch, we have had to make do with the tiny scraps of…
It was legendary New York Yankees catcher Yogi Berra who said: “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” This is as true…
Another year gone, and those of us who bleed black and white are feeling a bit down. But that's the thing about footy. No…
Every year at around this time we see a swathe of articles suggesting that the top eight is set, and that no team currently…
Thanks. I’m relatively new here, so I didn’t realise the comments were so out of the ordinary… But good to know nonetheless.
AFL's top eight now set in stone
Sydney by only 20 points? After they beat Collingwood, Essendon and Adelaide by an average of 56 points? A 20-point win over Port would be a huge drop in form for the Swans.
Other than that, great summary!
2013 AFL season: Round 13 preview
Thanks. Regarding Collingwood, see my comment below. I agree that Richmond are also inconsistent, but their last two wins have been very convincing. I think they are poised on the edge of a patch of very good form. Interestingly, Richmond have done both Carlton and Collingwood a great service in the last two rounds by beating top-8 contenders Adelaide and WCE. That alone could be enough to get those teams in. The whole situation adds even more excitement to the Richmond-Gold Coast game coming up! Wonder if Richmond can finally break through for a win at Cazaly stadium…
AFL's top eight now set in stone
Interesting point you raise. I would tend to disagree though.
The Pies have lost badly to 3 teams this year: Essendon, Hawthorn, and Sydney, all of whom are top 4 contenders. They also dropped a game against Freo when they fell away in the last quarter. But again, Freo is a top-tier team. Collingwood have beaten Carlton, Richmond and, in their best win for the year, Geelong. While they have been inconsistent in almost every game this year, they have shown that they have the ability to knock over quality sides. Unless their form drops off significantly, I can’t see them losing to many teams below them, like North or WC (they’ve beaten North once this year already). Also, sitting on 8 wins, they really only need another 4 or 5, most of which should come in the next 5 rounds. Their final 5 games will probably only determine if they finish 5th or 8th…
On the other hand, Carlton is yet to claim a big scalp, their best wins have been against WC and Adelaide, both of whom are struggling. Add to that the fact that the Pies are 2 games clear of Carlton and I think it’s unlikely that they will fall out and Carlton stay.
AFL's top eight now set in stone
I agree. I wouldn’t even be surprised if that top 4 berth came even sooner. I could see them just missing finals this year (I have them and WC in 9th and 10th interchangeably), making finals next year, and pushing for top 4 in 2015.
AFL's top eight now set in stone
Thanks!
You’re right that the top 8 is largely determined early in the year, but historically, in 12 of the last 18 seasons the final member of the eight has only been determined in round 20 or later (5 times it actually happened in round 22!)
You’re right that either Carlton or Richmond could theoretically drop out, which puts huge pressure on games between them and the other possible contenders (Suns, Eagles, Crows, Power). Those will be the proverbial 8-point games.
Your comment about Essendon is interesting, and I admit I didn’t think about it. However, my guess is that the AFL wouldn’t actually dock premiership points from them, even if they are found guilty. I would think sanctions are more likely to be in the form of fines or lost draft picks.
AFL's top eight now set in stone
I think you’re right. They are are a fantastic side, with many star players. I just think they’re too far gone this year. Same goes for North Melbourne in my opinion Also a quality side, but they’ve dropped too many crucial games. I reckon both of those teams, despite missing finals, will challenge in almost every one of their remaining games.
AFL's top eight now set in stone