Luke Ball essentially was cut. Days before his retirement he publicly said he wanted to play on. Then he sat down with Bucks, and then he retired. It’s pretty clear what happened.

I didn’t mention Gault because I don’t think one game is enough to judge anyone on. He couldn’t get a game all year until we had catastrophic injuries. The jury is very much out on him.

I wonder what team you support…

Not only are those glasses of yours rose-tinted, but it seems you need to get the prescription on them checked.
Mitchell is ranked #10 on this list, not #5.

“He is smart enough to understand that Melbourne will not get close to making the finals this year”

Wow, this guy must be a certified genius!

Firstly, for better or worse this analysis is only based on the last 10 years. Sure, if we go back to 2000, Brisbane’s triple starts to loom large. But even then I wouldn’t be so quick to write off what Geelong have achieved.

But as for your idea of not being interested in winning margins, I’d have to disagree. Sure, they don’t matter when it comes to simply counting Premierships, but it does tell us a lot about how a team rates compared to others. You can’t honestly say that a team that wins each game by 1 point is as good as a team that consistently smashes opponents!

Very interesting analysis. I think it confirms what we all already knew: Geelong have been the best team in recent history, and Melbourne have been the worst!

We’ve been hearing people talk recently about how if Hawthorn win this year’s flag, there’ll be a real question as to whether they or Geelong are the better team of the last decade. I think what this shows (not that we didn’t already know) is that it’s not just about the number of flags, but rather consistency of performance over a long period of time. Geelong just can’t be matched in that regard. You look at a player like Travis Varcoe, the quickest player in history to get to 100 wins – after only 117 games. Just ridiculous.

They simply do not know how to not win. The rest of us can only stand in awe.

Buckley himself said it best. Given all the changes, no-one, not even he has any idea where Collingwood are at at the moment. We’ll have to let performance speak for itself. Personally, I could realistically see the Pies finishing anywhere from 12th to 3rd.

Agreed!
Our backline has been the main problem for at least 2 years now, much more so than our forward line. Remember around 2010-2011? We had what was considered the best back 6 in the comp. We were tight, sharp, and stingy in defense. But through a combination of injury and retirements, our backline has gone downhill from there, to the point that last year it was WAY too easy for teams to score against us. If we can tighten up our leaky backline, I think we have enough talent that the rest will take care of itself.

Having 10 teams play finals out of 18 does more than reward mediocrity, it awards BELOW AVERAGE performance. Your structure is good, but let’s wait till the AFL adds Tasmanian and NT teams before thinking about a 10-team finals series.

I’m not saying Collingwood will be back up to winning a premiership next year, all I’m saying is that there is a lot of promising youth coming through.

@Blind Bombers:
The difference between StKilda and Collingwood is that the Saints made the mistake of hanging onto their near-Premiership success for too long, and hoping they would have another crack. They didn’t spend enough time investing in youth, which is clear from the fact that other than Jack Steven, all of their best players this year have been veterans. If the Saints want to salvage anything at all, they need to let go of some veterans while they still have trade currency (think Nicky Dal), and get into a rebuild, fast.

Collingwood on the other hand has been doing that already. The previous premiership window is now closed, but a new one may open pretty soon, in a similar way to how Geelong and Sydney have, in recent times, been able to rebuild while staying in touch with the top 8.

This article is accurate in general terms, but truthfully, all this did not come about as a result of one finals loss.

Since Buckley first arrived he has been changing the club. In his first year, there was a limited amount he could do. But last year’s off-season, and this year have been clear examples of the change he has implemented.

Collingwood had it’s most aggressive free agency / trade periods in recent memory last year, bringing in Lynch, Russel, and Clinton Young, while also securing 2 additional 1st round draft picks to add to the one they already had. Those picks have netted Brodie Grundy and Ben Kennedy, both of whom showed a lot this year, as well as Tim Broomhead, kept from debuting this year only because of a long spell of glandular fever.

This year also saw the Pies use 40 players, the most of any club bar GWS, including 8 debutants. A full 8 of the 22 players that lined up against Port on Saturday had played fewer than 15 AFL games before this season. And Buckley didn’t play them because of injuries, they are part of the Pies’ best 22 (at at least very close).

2013 may even be considered to have been a mini-rebuild year for the Pies. They will be better for it, mark my words.

The real issue here is not timeslots, it’s that some clubs are simply not at AFL standard. Granted, GC and GWS deserve some time to get off the ground, but that time is running out. Clubs like Melbourne and StKilda on the other hand are frankly a disgrace to the competition at the moment.

The Hawks-Saints game a few Friday nights ago was considered one of the most boring Friday night games in a long time. And you wonder why they don’t get more Friday night appearances?

Obviously not every team can be a top-8 side every year. But if a club ever sinks below around 7 wins for the season, they are in serious trouble. And more often than not its the result of bad decision making at the club in question (case in point: StKilda)

Some teams really need to get their acts together.

Cloke actually kicked 2 goals.
As for the free kick in question, Ted Richards got a light tap in the back and fell over to draw a free. Not saying it was right not to be paid, as it probably would’ve had the umpire actually gotten a good look, only that if you’re going to pick one to complain about, I don’t think that’s it.

Don’t take what I wrote to mean that I don’t also dream of the Pies’ 2013 triumph, but for the time being, it will stay just that, a dream.

But will they be settled as a unit by then?

Agreed. No team has a match for Franklin/Roughy. Would love to say that Cloke/Reid are it, and maybe in future they can be, but they are not there yet.

Great article, and wonderfully lively debate!

As a Pies supporter, I’m obviously very excited about our recent run of form, but as much as I would love to believe otherwise, I disagree with those here who see us as a premiership threat. We have simply left our run too late. Even if we beat Hawthorn on Friday (which I very much doubt considering the way we’ve been comprehensively shown up against them in recent times), we would still need Sydney to lose 2 more games in order for us to make the top 4 (as many have mentioned). (Also mentioned, we would probably need Richmond to lose a game, since their percentage is likey to be better than ours by season’s end). I just don’t see a quality side like Sydney dropping their last two games, with so much on the line.

From outside the 4, we’d be lucky to make a Prelim, let alone make or win the GF. Despite the last 2 week’ developments, my bet is still on a Hawks/Sydney GF, with Hawthorn the victor.

It’s now that we Pies come to rue the Gold Coast loss, and to a lesser extent, the loss to Port. 4 more points right about now would be pretty handy.

Great article. If I wasn’t a Pies supporter (Richmond’s somewhat likely week 1 finals opponent) I would be supporting the Tigers in the finals. Well, them and Freo. I’d love to see the dockers nab their first flag.

You make a lot of good points, but I’m not sure it is quite the revolution you are describing it as. I think coaches have known for a long time the value of good rebounders off half back, and at the same time, it’s still certainly true that a quality midfield is essential to a winning side. I think you’re right though that, increasingly, a larger percentage of goals are coming from rebounds than traditional midfield contests.

Which, by the way, is one reason I’ve always found ruckmen to be over-rated. I think teams need ruckmen who are going to compete and bring the ball to ground, but having the best ruckman in the comp is far from essential to winning games of footy.

How can you go past Watson for Goddard?

Nice article. Very interesting how the season has panned out. Personally, I predicted back after round 12 that the eight at that time would not change (It has – Port has taken Carlton’s spot). That said, I think Port are deserving considering the impressive form they have showed especially in beating the Swans and the Pies back to back. I still thought they would miss out on September until the final minute of the derby on Sunday, and we all know how that went.

But as for the finals themselves, I just can’t get past a Haws-Swans rematch. Would love to see a different team in there (although not Geelong), but I just don’t see it happening.

As a Pies fan, I was obviously thrilled by the win on the weekend, but, like others here, I still have major doubts as to what we’ll be able to produce against the real top sides. Especially Hawthorn. Buckley is yet to coach the Pies to a win against the Hawks, and something tells me it won’t happen this year. The Swans are also a very tough prospect.

I take comfort from the fact that so many promising youngsters and rookies (Dwyer, Martin, Kennedy, Witts, Grundy, Thomas, etc) have come through in lovely fashion this year. I hope this year will, in hindsight, have served as a mini-rebuild for us while maintaining reasonable form (in the way that the Swans and Geelong have showed is possible).

I would love it if the Pies could make another Prelim this year, but realistically, I think we will probably lose in a Semi-final after (hopefully) winning an elimination final against Richmond (most likely).

Great article. Freo/Geelong will be one fantastic game! I think it’s probably Geelong who’ll take the 4 points though. They will have everything to prove after the Brisbane loss. For a team that has a reputation for never giving up, I think they will give this one absolutely everything. Their pride is on the line.

I think a lot of people are speculating that he’s had enough, that he’s done his coaching dash and will choose to leave of his own accord at the end of the year.

I keep asking myself who will win the flag. It’s honestly a really tough question at this point. Good cases can be made for Sydney, Hawks, Geelong and Freo. So hard to split them!

Sydney – Unbelievable recent form. Returning players. Proven finals record
Hawthorn – Best run of form since 1975. Strength all across the ground. Extra hunger following last year’s disappointment.
Geelong – Hugely skillful list. Best recent finals record of any team. Proven player management success.
Freo – They say defence wins flags. If that’s the case, Freo are it. Plus their returning players are huge!

I’d say bottom line: Hawks-Sydney GF, Hawks win.